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May 2014


uncle W

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Models have been over-estimating the marine influence, especially the HRRR.

NYC is already up to 70 degrees after a forecast of 67 by the NWS.

HRRR only had highs of 65-67 for the coast for today and yesterday. Yesterday hit 71 and today is on it's way to the mid 70s or so.

Ewr is 62, LGA 65 and central park 67..meanwhile interior NJ is running much warmer
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Ewr is 62, LGA 65 and central park 67..meanwhile interior NJ is running much warmer

 

Well, it clouded up again.

Central Park hit 70 at 2pm.

LGA hit 68.

EWR 67.

 

Looks like those might be the highs for the day, unless clouds get out of the way again soon.

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It was nice until mid afternoon when the clouds fully filled in and temps dropped in the low 60s, upper 50s where I live by 430-5PM. It was warmer further west and further inland into NJ than further east, but temps just fell short of 70 for a lot of folks. 

 

Tomorrow might be over forecast for those further east as there will still likely be some marine influence and an easterly wind component. Mid 70s might be a stretch if those conditions are right as described. 

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Thick marine layer here w/ fog/mist and 54F.

 

Only made it to the low 60s today under overcast skies. Yesterday was upper 50s/low 60s and sunshine. So for E CNJ and coastal NJ / LI the past couple days were not busts temp wise. Fairly chilly/nasty 48 hours actually for this time of year.

 

 Further inland, away from the marine influence, temps were warmer.

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what looked like a wet stretch is turning out completely opposite. (Friday's event excluded of course, but it's one day)

 

While not wet, every day this week (since Mother's Day) has been cloudy or mostly cloudy, at least here. Sun returns for the weekend which is fine by me.

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Euro is king, scores prove that, but it certainly can screw up. There's nothing about its score that says its always right.

Well then it screws up a lot, it frequently over amps systems or troughs, it holds back energy in the SW too much, and it has other biases. If the Euro is still king then it really just proves why our models are still very technologically inept.

Its scores aren't that great beyond a certain time period, certainly not beyond 5 days. I think the euro ensembles are actually the best source of guidance for making a forecast.

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Well then it screws up a lot, it frequently over amps systems or troughs, it holds back energy in the SW too much, and it has other biases. If the Euro is still king then it really just proves why our models are still very technologically inept.

It scores aren't that great beyond a certain time period, certainly not beyond 5 days. I think the euro ensembles are actually the based source of guidance for making a forecast.

Yes the ensembles are the way to go in the longer range.  Honestly its always best to use some sort of ensemble, whether that consists of the actual ensembles, or an "ensemble" of your own choosing, such as the operational NAM, GFS, Euro, GGEM, UKMET. 

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if i remember correctly it was only a few runs as well

The problem is too many people pick and choose a run of a model that shows a desirable outcome or an unusual event. The GGEM has 90s next week lets post that. The euro has a tropical like system with 6" of rain lets post that. Then when it doesn't happen somehow it 'busted'

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The problem is too many people pick and choose a run of a model that shows a desirable outcome or an unusual event. The GGEM has 90s next week lets post that. The euro has a tropical like system with 6" of rain lets post that. Then when it doesn't happen somehow it 'busted'

Well then people need to stop posting these things because all it does is create unnecessary hype. The same thing applies during winter.

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People need to realize that a given event is just a possibility so far out.   Folks get upset when a model drops something 5 days out?  Come on.   I see no problem with posting the maps as long as folks understand it's just potential/possibility that far out.

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