Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Models have been over-estimating the marine influence, especially the HRRR. NYC is already up to 70 degrees after a forecast of 67 by the NWS. HRRR only had highs of 65-67 for the coast for today and yesterday. Yesterday hit 71 and today is on it's way to the mid 70s or so. Ewr is 62, LGA 65 and central park 67..meanwhile interior NJ is running much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Yeah, this whole week so far has not been forecasted well at all. Every day was forecast cloudy or mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, and every day has turned out sunny and low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Ewr is 62, LGA 65 and central park 67..meanwhile interior NJ is running much warmer Well, it clouded up again. Central Park hit 70 at 2pm. LGA hit 68. EWR 67. Looks like those might be the highs for the day, unless clouds get out of the way again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Dropped into the upper 50s here, air smells so good these last two days winds blowing off Long Island rather than pollution choked nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Dont know official but wouldn't be surprised if I hit 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Only made it to 64 here briefly... now back down to 56...interior sections much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 ...cloudy and cool all day here on the east end..low 60's was the best it could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Isn't it supposed to reach upper 70s tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Drizzle in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Isn't it supposed to reach upper 70s tomorrow? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Mid sixties on the south shore has dropped back to the high 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 It was nice until mid afternoon when the clouds fully filled in and temps dropped in the low 60s, upper 50s where I live by 430-5PM. It was warmer further west and further inland into NJ than further east, but temps just fell short of 70 for a lot of folks. Tomorrow might be over forecast for those further east as there will still likely be some marine influence and an easterly wind component. Mid 70s might be a stretch if those conditions are right as described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Been drizzling lightly here since 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Thick marine layer here w/ fog/mist and 54F. Only made it to the low 60s today under overcast skies. Yesterday was upper 50s/low 60s and sunshine. So for E CNJ and coastal NJ / LI the past couple days were not busts temp wise. Fairly chilly/nasty 48 hours actually for this time of year. Further inland, away from the marine influence, temps were warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Euro also went from cold and rainy with temps in the low 50s for Monday on it's 12z run to seasonable with temps in the upper 60s on it's 0z run. the crappy monday idea is dead now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 what looked like a wet stretch is turning out completely opposite. (Friday's event excluded of course, but it's one day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 what looked like a wet stretch is turning out completely opposite. (Friday's event excluded of course, but it's one day) While not wet, every day this week (since Mother's Day) has been cloudy or mostly cloudy, at least here. Sun returns for the weekend which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Nasty and raw here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The fog here is so dense that I can barely see across the parking lot at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Getting a muggy feel now 70/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 the crappy monday idea is dead now Once again it just proves the Euros ineptitude and why this model is overrated. It's no better than other models once you go beyond 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Once again it just proves the Euros ineptitude and why this model is overrated. It's no better than other models once you go beyond 3 days. I disagree. If you roll the dice enough times you are bound to fail. The euro is still king overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Euro is king, scores prove that, but it certainly can screw up. There's nothing about its score that says its always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Euro is king, scores prove that, but it certainly can screw up. There's nothing about its score that says its always right.Well then it screws up a lot, it frequently over amps systems or troughs, it holds back energy in the SW too much, and it has other biases. If the Euro is still king then it really just proves why our models are still very technologically inept. Its scores aren't that great beyond a certain time period, certainly not beyond 5 days. I think the euro ensembles are actually the best source of guidance for making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Well then it screws up a lot, it frequently over amps systems or troughs, it holds back energy in the SW too much, and it has other biases. If the Euro is still king then it really just proves why our models are still very technologically inept. It scores aren't that great beyond a certain time period, certainly not beyond 5 days. I think the euro ensembles are actually the based source of guidance for making a forecast. Yes the ensembles are the way to go in the longer range. Honestly its always best to use some sort of ensemble, whether that consists of the actual ensembles, or an "ensemble" of your own choosing, such as the operational NAM, GFS, Euro, GGEM, UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Once again it just proves the Euros ineptitude and why this model is overrated. It's no better than other models once you go beyond 3 days. Its 4 days away, it was showing this 7 days out which should never be trusted on any model. Its not like it caved the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Its 4 days away, it was showing this 7 days out which should never be trusted on any model. Its not like it caved the day before.if i remember correctly it was only a few runs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 if i remember correctly it was only a few runs as well The problem is too many people pick and choose a run of a model that shows a desirable outcome or an unusual event. The GGEM has 90s next week lets post that. The euro has a tropical like system with 6" of rain lets post that. Then when it doesn't happen somehow it 'busted' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 The problem is too many people pick and choose a run of a model that shows a desirable outcome or an unusual event. The GGEM has 90s next week lets post that. The euro has a tropical like system with 6" of rain lets post that. Then when it doesn't happen somehow it 'busted' Well then people need to stop posting these things because all it does is create unnecessary hype. The same thing applies during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 People need to realize that a given event is just a possibility so far out. Folks get upset when a model drops something 5 days out? Come on. I see no problem with posting the maps as long as folks understand it's just potential/possibility that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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