MJO812 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 70 right now in Brooklyn http://www.weatherlink.com/user/weathermedic/ Beautiful sunny day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 With some clearing and sun now in place to heat things up, high dews and the cold front still hung up back to our west we might be able to destabilize enough to get a strong storm in the area later this afternoon. SPC in their latest outlook have shifted the thunderstorm line back to the west placing much of the area in a risk zone for thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 The Euro ensembles are really ugly beyond day 10. They keep New England backdoored with a mean trough over the lakes. That should bring continued average to below average temps and average to above average rainfall. We might even have another ULL to work with in the day 10-14 range. It has been hinted at for awhile now. You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today.Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today. Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway. We're talking about the Euro ensembles here which are reliable. They mean has below normal temps days 1-8, average to above normal temps days 9-14 and then below normal temps days 14-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Flash point today looks to be around 6PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Do you have the 8 pm map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Do you have the 8 pm map? My bad I should have said 6PM. That's 1800 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Getting well into the 70's today...75 here currently with a dp of 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 My bad I should have said 6PM. That's 1800 hours. Kinda hoping anything is earlier than that for selfish reasons lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Here are the other dates over the last 30 years when the first 80 degree of spring at NYC occurred in May. This was more common before the 2000's. 5-5-00.....86 5-19-97...83 5-16-95...80 5-1-93.....82 5-23-88...83 5-7-87.....81 5-23-84...81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Buckets away on the Euro OP from day 7 forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Looks like a decent storm structure to my north. Must be the cell currently near Middletown, NY that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 4pm temps: NYC 77 LGA 76 EWR 78 TEB 79 Warmest day of the year for LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 It looks like JFK reached 71 between hours. This would be the first time since 1984 that the first 70 of spring at JFK happened as late as May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Looks like a negative NAO till at least mid-May before a brief jump to neutral and before things look to dive back negative again. I would be very reluctant to forecast a period of above average temperatures for the forcible future. But it's May now and even seasonable means highs in the 70's for most locations. Are you even looking at what you're posting? That shows a very obvious agreement on a move back towards neutral if not positive, not a "brief jump with a dive back negative". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Are you even looking at what you're posting? That shows a very obvious agreement on a move back towards neutral if not positive, not a "brief jump with a dive back negative".it moves to neutral and then back negative. Look at the clustering of red lines southward towards mid month. It fits well anyway with the Euro ensembles showing troughing and below average temps in the extended range. Not saying it's a lock but it's all we pretty much have to go for at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Camp becomes divided at the end of that chart but there are more members positive then there are negative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Deep mixing and steep lapse rates on Sunday afternoon. Could see wind gusts 30mph to 40mph: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The Euro ensembles warm sector us in about a week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 There could be an opportunity around the 10th to build in some heat (80s) as the ridge over the Midwest could poke northeast enough to bring 850s over +10 for a time. That also relies on the troughing northeast of us relenting enough. If it doesn't, of course then there won't be any real heating up. Indeed, the Euro long range hints that it could be possible for a day or two, before yet another trough digs in overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The Euro ensembles warm sector us in about a week to ten days. EDH100-192.gif Look more closely. That's confluence over SE Canada. It's going to come down to exactly where the warm front stalls which the Euro op keeps over the area with numerous rain chances. Far from a nice look. I just took a look at the individual ensemble members and roughly half are as wet as the op or wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 BTW it hit 81 degrees yesterday IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 There could be an opportunity around the 10th to build in some heat (80s) as the ridge over the Midwest could poke northeast enough to bring 850s over +10 for a time. That also relies on the troughing northeast of us relenting enough. If it doesn't, of course then there won't be any real heating up. Indeed, the Euro long range hints that it could be possible for a day or two, before yet another trough digs in overhead. New England gets repeatedly backdoored and we stay on the boundary with the stalled out front near bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Look more closely. That's confluence over SE Canada. It's going to come down to exactly where the warm front stalls which the Euro op keeps over the area with numerous rain chances. Far from a nice look. I just took a look at the individual ensemble members and roughly half are as wet as the op or wetter. The OP usually overdoes upper lows at the day 8-10 range so the ensembles are seeing that the backdoor will get pushed just north of us for a day or two of 80's pushing at least into NJ. But there still should be some rain before the boundary stalls out over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 The OP usually overdoes upper lows at the day 8-10 range so the ensembles are seeing that the backdoor will get pushed just north of us for a day or two of 80's pushing at least in NJ. But there still should be some rain before the boundary stalls out over New England. I agree that the Euro ensemble mean warm sectors us from days 7 to 9 but then the pattern becomes murky as we sit right on the boundary days 8-10. Then we go warm sectored again days 10-12 before we turn cold again days 12-16. The Euro op actually keeps the polar vortex over SE Canada with confluent flow to our north. With troughing to our west and a bit of a SE ridge popping up we should see repeated SWFE rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 You can add the 00z GGEM to the Euro OP's camp and to an extend the 06z GFS, although that pushes the front further north for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I agree that the Euro ensemble mean warm sectors us from days 7 to 9 but then the pattern becomes murky as we sit right on the boundary days 8-10. Then we go warm sectored again days 10-12 before we turn cold again days 12-16. The Euro op actually keeps the polar vortex over SE Canada with confluent flow to our north. With troughing to our west and a bit of a SE ridge popping up we should see repeated SWFE rains. We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April. GFS still has a warmup starting in about a week lasting a couple days. Might have a shot at 80 then or the following week, but yeah seems like a back and forth pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April. After last summers seemingly endless string of 90's I'm ready for a summer with more average temperatures in the mid 80's on most days. It's too early to tell but I have a feeling we'll be dealing with a lot of wash outs this Summer. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the climate prediction center calls for above average temperatures and above average precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 After last summers seemingly endless string of 90's I'm ready for a summer with more average temperatures in the mid 80's on most days. It's too early to tell but I have a feeling we'll be dealing with a lot of wash outs this Summer. The latest 8-14 day outlook from the climate prediction center calls for above average temperatures and above average precipitation. The Great Lakes and Midwest are usually cooler during the summer when we get developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific. I think our pattern will come down to the strength and placement of the Western Atlantic Ridge. The long range forecasts have us on the western extent of the ridge so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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