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May 2014


uncle W

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With some clearing and sun now in place to heat things up, high dews and the cold front still hung up back to our west we might be able to destabilize enough to get a strong storm in the area later this afternoon. SPC in their latest outlook have shifted the thunderstorm line back to the west placing much of the area in a risk zone for thunderstorms.

 

day1otlk_1630.gif

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The Euro ensembles are really ugly beyond day 10. They keep New England backdoored with a mean trough over the lakes. That should bring continued average to below average temps and average to above average rainfall.

We might even have another ULL to work with in the day 10-14 range. It has been hinted at for awhile now.

You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today.

Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway.

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You're talking 10-14 days so any accuracy is very nill for that time frame. I've read hints of a warm pattern by or after mid month but even that's too far to speculate so I'm gonna say things look near normal for at least the next 7 days after today.

Also like you've stated, 70s become normal soon so it'll feel warm regardless and I usually expect mostly 70s to 80 after mid month anyway.

We're talking about the Euro ensembles here which are reliable. They mean has below normal temps days 1-8, average to above normal temps days 9-14 and then below normal temps days 14-16.

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Here are the other dates over the last 30 years when the first 80 degree of spring 

at NYC occurred  in May. This was more common before the 2000's.

 

5-5-00.....86

5-19-97...83

5-16-95...80

5-1-93.....82

5-23-88...83

5-7-87.....81

5-23-84...81

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Looks like a negative NAO till at least mid-May before a brief jump to neutral and before things look to dive back negative again. I would be very reluctant to forecast a period of above average temperatures for the forcible future. But it's May now and even seasonable means highs in the 70's for most locations.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

Are you even looking at what you're posting?  That shows a very obvious agreement on a move back towards neutral if not positive, not a "brief jump with a dive back negative".

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Are you even looking at what you're posting? That shows a very obvious agreement on a move back towards neutral if not positive, not a "brief jump with a dive back negative".

it moves to neutral and then back negative. Look at the clustering of red lines southward towards mid month. It fits well anyway with the Euro ensembles showing troughing and below average temps in the extended range. Not saying it's a lock but it's all we pretty much have to go for at that range.
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There could be an opportunity around the 10th to build in some heat (80s) as the ridge over the Midwest could poke northeast enough to bring 850s over +10 for a time. That also relies on the troughing northeast of us relenting enough. If it doesn't, of course then there won't be any real heating up. Indeed, the Euro long range hints that it could be possible for a day or two, before yet another trough digs in overhead.

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The Euro ensembles warm sector us in about a week to ten days.

 

attachicon.gifEDH100-192.gif

Look more closely. That's confluence over SE Canada. It's going to come down to exactly where the warm front stalls which the Euro op keeps over the area with numerous rain chances. Far from a nice look. I just took a look at the individual ensemble members and roughly half are as wet as the op or wetter.

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There could be an opportunity around the 10th to build in some heat (80s) as the ridge over the Midwest could poke northeast enough to bring 850s over +10 for a time. That also relies on the troughing northeast of us relenting enough. If it doesn't, of course then there won't be any real heating up. Indeed, the Euro long range hints that it could be possible for a day or two, before yet another trough digs in overhead.

New England gets repeatedly backdoored and we stay on the boundary with the stalled out front near bye.

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Look more closely. That's confluence over SE Canada. It's going to come down to exactly where the warm front stalls which the Euro op keeps over the area with numerous rain chances. Far from a nice look. I just took a look at the individual ensemble members and roughly half are as wet as the op or wetter.

 

The OP usually overdoes upper lows at the day 8-10 range so the ensembles are seeing that the backdoor will 

get pushed just north of us for a day or two of 80's pushing at least into NJ. But there still should be some rain

before the boundary stalls out over New England. 

 

 

 

 

 

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The OP usually overdoes upper lows at the day 8-10 range so the ensembles are seeing that the backdoor will 

get pushed just north of us for a day or two of 80's pushing at least in NJ. But there still should be some rain

before the boundary stalls out over New England.

I agree that the Euro ensemble mean warm sectors us from days 7 to 9 but then the pattern becomes murky as we sit right on the boundary days 8-10. Then we go warm sectored again days 10-12 before we turn cold again days 12-16. The Euro op actually keeps the polar vortex over SE Canada with confluent flow to our north. With troughing to our west and a bit of a SE ridge popping up we should see repeated SWFE rains.

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I agree that the Euro ensemble mean warm sectors us from days 7 to 9 but then the pattern becomes murky as we sit right on the boundary days 8-10. Then we go warm sectored again days 10-12 before we turn cold again days 12-16. The Euro op actually keeps the polar vortex over SE Canada with confluent flow to our north. With troughing to our west and a bit of a SE ridge popping up we should see repeated SWFE rains.

 

We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as 

NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and

forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April.

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We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as 

NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and

forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April.

GFS still has a warmup starting in about a week lasting a couple days. Might have a shot at 80 then or the following week, but yeah seems like a back and forth pattern 

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We'll have to take the warmth this spring where we can find it like we saw in recent days as 

NJ to NYC got close to 80 yesterday but fell closer to normal today. It looks like a back and

forth pattern where we may finish the month 0+1 instead of 0-1 in April.

After last summers seemingly endless string of 90's I'm ready for a summer with more average temperatures in the mid 80's on most days. It's too early to tell but I have a feeling we'll be dealing with a lot of wash outs this Summer.

 

The latest 8-14 day outlook from the climate prediction center calls for above average temperatures and above average precipitation.

 

814temp.new.gif

 

814prcp.new.gif

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After last summers seemingly endless string of 90's I'm ready for a summer with more average temperatures in the mid 80's on most days. It's too early to tell but I have a feeling we'll be dealing with a lot of wash outs this Summer.

 

The latest 8-14 day outlook from the climate prediction center calls for above average temperatures and above average precipitation.

 

814temp.new.gif

 

814prcp.new.gif

 

The Great Lakes and Midwest are usually cooler during the summer when we get developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific.

I think our pattern will come down to the strength and placement of the Western Atlantic Ridge. The long range forecasts

have us on the western extent of the ridge so far.

 

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