IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 The air here now is way too stable for anything other than some showers. I'll take some showers and consider it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I'll take some showers and consider it a win. Falling apart on radar pretty quickly-doubt anyone gets more than a sprinkle or quick wetting of the ground and certainly nothing east of NYC where it's marine stable air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Falling apart on radar pretty quickly-doubt anyone gets more than a sprinkle or quick wetting of the ground and certainly nothing east of NYC where it's marine stable air What radar are you looking at if I may ask? NWS radar out of Binghamton shows it holding together fairly well. And if you look at the direction the activity is moving it wouldn't reach NYC or points east even if it held together completely. Some showers can't be ruled out for western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 I'll take some showers and consider it a win. For what? To make the ground wet? I'm not sure how sprinkles are exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 What radar are you looking at if I may ask? NWS radar out of Binghamton shows it holding together fairly well. And if you look at the direction the activity is moving it wouldn't reach NYC or points east even if it held together completely. Some showers can't be ruled out for western sections. NWS regional view of the NE... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php - you're right, most would miss to the south, but I bet once it hits the dry/stable air of the backdoor front, it goes poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 You can certainly feel the change of airmass as dew points in the low 60's a few hours ago have been replaced by dews in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 For what? To make the ground wet? I'm not sure how sprinkles are exciting My car needs a rinse after all the pollen this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 My car needs a rinse after all the pollen this week. A sprinkle or light shower will probably only make it worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 A sprinkle or light shower will probably only make it worse Crossing my fingers for a heavier burst of rain. Although it seems unlikely given the stable air mass thanks to the backdoor front. If you look at the modeling the flow should flip to out of the southwest tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 This May is running quite a bit warmer than last May Yea we even had reports of flakes last memorial day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Today is beautiful also..no clouds or anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 With the cut off low sitting overhead or over New England for most of next week no sustained warm ups are on the horizon. At least not in the next seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 With the cut off low sitting overhead or over New England for most of next week no sustained warm ups are on the horizon. At least not in the next seven days. Good, I'll take today's weather any day over 80s and 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Good, I'll take today's weather any day over 80s and 90s. The 12z GFS is also pretty ugly for Memorial Day weekend, but of course we have awhile to sort it all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Big difference from yesterday with a current temp of 57 after making it up to 67 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Big difference from yesterday with a current temp of 57 after making it up to 67 earlier. 67 was my high at midnight. Spent the day in the low 60s. Now only 51F and chilly. Good sleeping weather. No A/C or heat needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 67 was my high at midnight. Spent the day in the low 60s. Now only 51F and chilly. Good sleeping weather. No A/C or heat needed. nice full moon out there too. 52 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 If your lawn needs to be cut don't wait till the weekend because most models are putting out up to 2 inches qpf late Thursday through Saturday morning region wide and the grass and soil will takes a couple days to dry out after it stops http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014051406/gfs_apcpn_us_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 If your lawn needs to be cut don't wait till the weekend because most models are putting out up to 2 inches qpf late Thursday through Saturday morning region wide and the grass and soil will takes a couple days to dry out after it stops http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014051406/gfs_apcpn_us_12.png 0z Euro gives the area only .60"-.85". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 After this cut off low looks like we'll have a period of dry conditions but still not above average warmth (i.e. widespread 80 degree readings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Euro also went from cold and rainy with temps in the low 50s for Monday on it's 12z run to seasonable with temps in the upper 60s on it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 0z Euro gives the area only .60"-.85". unfortunately the Euro is the outlier and WPC is going with the wetter models http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 unfortunately the Euro is the outlier and WPC is going with the wetter models http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif At this point we need a good soaking rain. Wash away this pollen because it is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 At this point we need a good soaking rain. Wash away this pollen because it is killing me. everything is green here from the pollen...we've only had .25 of an inch of rain here since the 4/30 deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 At this point we need a good soaking rain. Wash away this pollen because it is killing me. Seems like Friday should provide some relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Seems like Friday should provide some relief. Yep! hoping so! Like Brian5671 said, its been pretty dry the past couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Seems like Friday should provide some relief. although we'll get some relief, looks like the heaviest rains could be west of us with that WAR flexing westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 I don't think we are in any kind of rain deficit at this point. I still see standing water in the median in I-95 and the streams and rivers are craning. I hate skeeters, and there are plenty of breeding ponds for them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Sunny and gorgeous temp in the 70s..mets bust and so much for that doom and gloom week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Sunny and gorgeous temp in the 70s..mets bust and so much for that doom and gloom week Models have been over-estimating the marine influence, especially the HRRR. NYC is already up to 70 degrees after a forecast of 67 by the NWS. HRRR only had highs of 65-67 for the coast for today and yesterday. Yesterday hit 71 and today is on it's way to the mid 70s or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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