Rjay Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 79 North Merrick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 82F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 78F Bronxville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 How's the rest of the month looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 RT @NWSNewYorkNY: Long Islands first official 80 degree day of 2014 as Islip reached 80 degrees #nywx I had my first 80 degree day yesterday, and today is the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 First day of 80+ here in southern brooklyn! no sea breezes , showers , just dry and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 First day of 80+ here in southern brooklyn! no sea breezes , showers , just dry and warm. ..out here at the beach in westhampton,sea breeze kicked in around 12:30 this afternoon.. not sure of temps but it was beautiful at the shore today..(as long as you stayed out of the wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 11, 2014 Share Posted May 11, 2014 We'll have a 3rd 80-degree day tomorrow, but then we start to cool off. When will we return to 80 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 We'll have a 3rd 80-degree day tomorrow, but then we start to cool off. When will we return to 80 again? You do know the average high this time of year is like 70 right? Having multiple 80+ days is not normal for another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Weekend highs (first 80s for nyc stations) 5/10TEB: 83NYC: 83EWR: 84LGA: 82JFK: 77ISP: 78New Brunswick: 84TTN: 82 5/11:TEB: 83NYC: 82EWR: 83LGA: 81JFK: 79ISP: 80New Brunswick: 79TTN: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 We'll have a 3rd 80-degree day tomorrow, but then we start to cool off. When will we return to 80 again? On around 5/22 following some longer range guidance. Perhaps more sustained into the last week of the month as we see more pronounced troughing into the WC push the ridge east from the Midwest.. Have to watch as we still have riding/blocking into North Atlntic. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 It's gonna be tough getting a sustained warm period until the block to our NE subsides. Since we've had a +NAO for so long and now we switched to a -NAO, I have to wonder if we've entered a prolonged blocking regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Made it to 82 yesterday and 83 today. .. cooling down nicely with clear skies and light wind , 64 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 It's gonna be tough getting a sustained warm period until the block to our NE subsides. Since we've had a +NAO for so long and now we switched to a -NAO, I have to wonder if we've entered a prolonged blocking regime. Does this mean we will have a below average May? What are the chances of that looking like? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 It's gonna be tough getting a sustained warm period until the block to our NE subsides. Since we've had a +NAO for so long and now we switched to a -NAO, I have to wonder if we've entered a prolonged blocking regime. This switch is coming just in time for summer too. I wonder if having an El Nino + -NAO will have any huge impacts on the weather pattern for the next several weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 It's gonna be tough getting a sustained warm period until the block to our NE subsides. Since we've had a +NAO for so long and now we switched to a -NAO, I have to wonder if we've entered a prolonged blocking regime. No heat waves or any 90 degree temps in site http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr This loop of this mornings GFS shows what is going on - and the heat ridge is being suppressed to the south west - question is will a similar type of pattern lock in through the 1st half of June ? IMO the heat ridge will only being poking its way into the area briefly from time to time through the summer ahead of cold frontal passages and increased possibilities of MCS's around the region from also being in the "ring of fire" . http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 The strong Newfoundland block has been a common feature for the last 3 Mays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 the nao was mostly negative in the summer of 2009...It went positive in mid August... ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 We'll have a 3rd 80-degree day tomorrow, but then we start to cool off. When will we return to 80 again? thursday away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 So it looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as this evening. Tuesday the majority of the rain should be well west of NYC with perhaps even decent weather east of I-95. Wednesday should feature more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, again more coverage west of the city. On Thursday the models begin to diverge. The 06z GFS has light rain and scattered showers/storms for a majority of the day while the 00z ECMWF is much drier for Thursday with only very spotty light activity. The 00z GGEM is also in the Euro's camp and to an extent the 00z GFS is more in the Euro's camp as well. So I would probably side on a drier Thursday for now, but the jury is still out. What is a lock is that all of the models are in agreement now on a period of very heavy rain centered around Friday afternoon and Friday night. The LLJ may be weakening as it approaches the east coast so the duration and intensity of the rain during this period is still in question. Overall a quick 1-2" looks likely with heavier amounts possible. The pattern appears to have sped up enough that any tropical connection should remain offshore. Then all eyes turn to next week and the upcoming holiday weekend. The models are in good agreement on yet another cut off low for next week that promises to keep things unsettled. The 06z GFS keeps rain chances around right through the end of its run. The ECMWF cuts the low off further east. One thing for sure is that the upcoming pattern looks blocky and unsettled. As always, it will come down to the exact location of the fronts and timing with regards to our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Could end up being a mostly dry week for 90% of the metro area at least until Friday and even then there's no guarantee of anything. Most spots are pretty average for the month, with some that got the heavy storms over the weekend being far above. Temps are running 2-3 above with another +10 on the way for today. Clouds should keep the overnight lows on the mild side this week so even with cooler temps we may not be much below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 10AM Roundup TEB: 76 NYC: 74 EWR : 76 LGA: 75 JFK: 74 ISP: 73 New Bnswick: 76 TTN: 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 78 here. It looks like today will be warmer than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Based on the latest MMEFS data a basin wide average of around 3.5-4.00" of rain would push most of the area rivers into flood stage. The Passaic River at Pinebrook seems to be the most vulnerable in the area. Latest guidance suggests only about 2.50" needed to reach flood stage there with 3.50" needed for moderate flooding. Currently basin wide averages are forecasted to stay between 2 and 3 inches. We'll have to watch for some minor flooding it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 11AM just another gem of a day, Some clouds pushing in TEB: 79 NYC: 79 EWR : 80 LGA: 79 JFK: 76 ISP: 77 New Bnswick: 79 TTN: 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 What's the trend looking like temperature-wise? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 12pm temps NYC 81 LGA 80 EWR 81 TEB 82 JFK 75 ISP 78 TTN 79 The backdoor cold front washes out over us Wednesday and Thursday. So we could see 75F+ again by Thursday. Before another cold front with a strong LLJ and high pwats, gives us some heavy rain on Friday/Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 How much rain should we get on Friday? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 How much rain should we get on Friday? Sent from my iPhone At this time it looks like basin wide averages of 1-2" with locally higher amounts. Especially in NW NJ and NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Looks like the rain may clear out in time for Saturday afternoon....please please let this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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