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May 2014


uncle W

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Essentially the garbage pattern goes into effect day 5 and then persists through the end of the run on the 12z GFS.

 

There is nothing wrong with a strong block in May. The cutoff low scenario that models have will change drastically over the next few runs and for all we know, the majority of the rain will end up well south of us and our area will just be left with some scattered stalled front moisture.

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There is nothing wrong with a strong block in May. The cutoff low scenario that models have will change drastically over the next few runs and for all we know, the majority of the rain will end up well south of us and our area will just be left with some scattered stalled front moisture.

You do realize that I'm just giving you what the model shows verbatim. It doesn't have to be correct and probably isn't.

 

The MJO and NAO going forward supports troughing in the east.

 

Also the developing Nino would definitely argue for a southwest ridge, and that yields eastern troughing.

 

What else do we have to go by right now?

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In fact, the strength of the block is increasing with each run and that would favor any storms trying to cut underneath it to track well south of our area.

Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast.

Well since moisture with ULL systems is usually well displaced from the low center itself, we would probably stay in a wetter pattern if the low sat over the mid-atlantic as opposed to directly over us.

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Well since moisture with ULL systems is usually well displaced from the low center itself, we would probably stay in a wetter pattern if the low sat over the mid-atlantic as opposed to directly over us.

 

I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products.

Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather.

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I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products.

Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather.

we average over 4" of rain each month of the warm season. that's an inch a week
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I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products.

Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather.

Just to keep up the technical discussion here.

 

You can see the well modeled ULL trough here at day 5 on the 12z GEFS ensembles.

 

f120.gif

 

Now fast forward 3 days and they match up well with the 12z GFS op so far.

 

f192.gif

 

And then fast forward to day 10 and a few members look very similar to the 12z GFS OP. None of the members show a 500mb pattern that would favor warmth. Maybe P010 would be the one exception since the trough is positioned in a more favorable position for southwest flow.

 

f240.gif

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We're in May, not July/August. We can still get straitform rainstorms, especially with some blocking in the right position.

 

Stratiform rainstorms that some of us oooh and ahhh over, while the majority of us really don't care if we get 2" or 0.5".  I used to think getting a huge synoptic rainstorm in the spring was kind of fun until I realized there was absolutely nothing fun - from a living life perspective - about it.  Meteorologically, sure, last week's 5" of rain in MBY has some cool embedded features, but otherwise I was at work watching it pour from my window.  Until I was at home... watching it pour outside my apartment.

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Stratiform rainstorms that some of us oooh and ahhh over, while the majority of us really don't care if we get 2" or 0.5".  I used to think getting a huge synoptic rainstorm in the spring was kind of fun until I realized there was absolutely nothing fun - from a living life perspective - about it.  Meteorologically, sure, last week's 5" of rain in MBY has some cool embedded features, but otherwise I was at work watching it pour from my window.  Until I was at home... watching it pour outside my apartment.

I still find it to be fun, even if my fun consists of watching it pour from my office window.

 

I don't find it fun when I'm trying to vacation with my family at the shore during the summer.

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Let's face it, most people on here only care about extreme weather and snow. They don't care about even a significant rainstorm unless it's a record breaker and starts causing major flooding issues.

Temps are interesting when they each extreme values so anytime 100s are possible then it's a big deal. Same thing with t-storms, only severe tstorms matter, but everyone goes nuts at even the prospect of snow.

Would people here secretly want another Sandy or actual hurricane to slam us, yeah probably unless they've been severely impacted to the point where enough is enough. Some extreme weather enthusiasts do have limits thank god.

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Let's face it, most people on here only care about extreme weather and snow. They don't care about even a significant rainstorm unless it's a record breaker and starts causing major flooding issues.

Temps are interesting when they each extreme values so anytime 100s are possible then it's a big deal. Same thing with t-storms, only severe tstorms matter, but everyone goes nuts at even the prospect of snow.

If all the pieces fall into place we could have some significant river flooding next week to ten days. The rivers were already way high after last week and I know the nearest reservoir to me is still running above normal.

 

wrdn4_hg.png

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You do realize that I'm just giving you what the model shows verbatim. It doesn't have to be correct and probably isn't.

 

The MJO and NAO going forward supports troughing in the east.

 

Also the developing Nino would definitely argue for a southwest ridge, and that yields eastern troughing.

 

What else do we have to go by right now?

A warmer than normal stratosphere over NA?   A carry over from winter perhaps.

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