ag3 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Essentially the garbage pattern goes into effect day 5 and then persists through the end of the run on the 12z GFS. There is nothing wrong with a strong block in May. The cutoff low scenario that models have will change drastically over the next few runs and for all we know, the majority of the rain will end up well south of us and our area will just be left with some scattered stalled front moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Who gives a ****. That's normal. A chance of scattered showers in May and summer? Who would have thought. Happens every year. Some people will see rain and others wont. All I know is that the next 4-5 days will feature very warm temps and it's about f-in time. Getting restless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 There is nothing wrong with a strong block in May. The cutoff low scenario that models have will change drastically over the next few runs and for all we know, the majority of the rain will end up well south of us and our area will just be left with some scattered stalled front moisture. You do realize that I'm just giving you what the model shows verbatim. It doesn't have to be correct and probably isn't. The MJO and NAO going forward supports troughing in the east. Also the developing Nino would definitely argue for a southwest ridge, and that yields eastern troughing. What else do we have to go by right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 In fact, the strength of the block is increasing with each run and that would favor any storms trying to cut underneath it to track well south of our area. Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 In fact, the strength of the block is increasing with each run and that would favor any storms trying to cut underneath it to track well south of our area. Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. Well since moisture with ULL systems is usually well displaced from the low center itself, we would probably stay in a wetter pattern if the low sat over the mid-atlantic as opposed to directly over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Well since moisture with ULL systems is usually well displaced from the low center itself, we would probably stay in a wetter pattern if the low sat over the mid-atlantic as opposed to directly over us. I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products. Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products. Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather. we average over 4" of rain each month of the warm season. that's an inch a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I see nothing out of the ordinary on any of the ensemble products. Just typical spring/summer weather in NYC with occasional backdoor fronts and occasional periods of wet weather. Just to keep up the technical discussion here. You can see the well modeled ULL trough here at day 5 on the 12z GEFS ensembles. Now fast forward 3 days and they match up well with the 12z GFS op so far. And then fast forward to day 10 and a few members look very similar to the 12z GFS OP. None of the members show a 500mb pattern that would favor warmth. Maybe P010 would be the one exception since the trough is positioned in a more favorable position for southwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 we average over 4" of rain each month of the warm season. that's an inch a week and more times then not it comes in bunches with very dry periods inbetween - \ http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualpcpn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 and more times then not it comes in bunches with very dry periods inbetween We're in May, not July/August. We can still get straitform rainstorms, especially with some blocking in the right position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 We're in May, not July/August. We can still get straitform rainstorms, especially with some blocking in the right position. Stratiform rainstorms that some of us oooh and ahhh over, while the majority of us really don't care if we get 2" or 0.5". I used to think getting a huge synoptic rainstorm in the spring was kind of fun until I realized there was absolutely nothing fun - from a living life perspective - about it. Meteorologically, sure, last week's 5" of rain in MBY has some cool embedded features, but otherwise I was at work watching it pour from my window. Until I was at home... watching it pour outside my apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Stratiform rainstorms that some of us oooh and ahhh over, while the majority of us really don't care if we get 2" or 0.5". I used to think getting a huge synoptic rainstorm in the spring was kind of fun until I realized there was absolutely nothing fun - from a living life perspective - about it. Meteorologically, sure, last week's 5" of rain in MBY has some cool embedded features, but otherwise I was at work watching it pour from my window. Until I was at home... watching it pour outside my apartment. I still find it to be fun, even if my fun consists of watching it pour from my office window. I don't find it fun when I'm trying to vacation with my family at the shore during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 12z ECMWF cuts the low off over the Ohio Valley day 6-7 with a moisture feed out of the southeast. Dews surge to the middle 60's. Right now Thursday-Friday looks like the steadiest heaviest rain if you want to use the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Let's face it, most people on here only care about extreme weather and snow. They don't care about even a significant rainstorm unless it's a record breaker and starts causing major flooding issues. Temps are interesting when they each extreme values so anytime 100s are possible then it's a big deal. Same thing with t-storms, only severe tstorms matter, but everyone goes nuts at even the prospect of snow. Would people here secretly want another Sandy or actual hurricane to slam us, yeah probably unless they've been severely impacted to the point where enough is enough. Some extreme weather enthusiasts do have limits thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Let's face it, most people on here only care about extreme weather and snow. They don't care about even a significant rainstorm unless it's a record breaker and starts causing major flooding issues. Temps are interesting when they each extreme values so anytime 100s are possible then it's a big deal. Same thing with t-storms, only severe tstorms matter, but everyone goes nuts at even the prospect of snow. If all the pieces fall into place we could have some significant river flooding next week to ten days. The rivers were already way high after last week and I know the nearest reservoir to me is still running above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Getting restless? From your incessant comments on how the 384hr GFS shows sh*tty weather? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 From your incessant comments on how the 384hr GFS shows sh*tty weather? Yes. How about the 120hr GFS, 120hr GGEM and 120hr ECMWF showing the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I don't know if I'd really be trusting the NAM for anything. It has done really poorly lately. It's a lot drier than the GFS and that's just very strange to me. The 12z ECMWF has low 80s for NYC and NE NJ tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The 12z ECMWF has low 80s for NYC and NE NJ tomorrow as well. Yup, the Euro is warm until hour 108 when the bottom falls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Yup, the Euro is warm until hour 108 when the bottom falls out. The next 4 days should average +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 You do realize that I'm just giving you what the model shows verbatim. It doesn't have to be correct and probably isn't. The MJO and NAO going forward supports troughing in the east. Also the developing Nino would definitely argue for a southwest ridge, and that yields eastern troughing. What else do we have to go by right now? A warmer than normal stratosphere over NA? A carry over from winter perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 A warmer than normal stratosphere over NA? A carry over from winter perhaps. Yeah Typhoon Tip eluded to that in the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 This thread is getting unbearable to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Amazing at the little differences today, it's in the mid 50s where I live but a good ten degrees warmer about 10 miles west towards New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 This thread is getting unbearable to read.Why is it unbearable? Just curious because I think the conversation has been good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Nasty and raw here right now. Trees aren't leafed out yet. Saw this comming with the colder then normal water temps. First shot at cracking 70 comming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Topped out in the upper 50's here yesterday and today...meanwhile close to 90 upstate ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 This thread is getting unbearable to read. It's basically a monologue... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Can't wait for the warm weather..the last two days have been horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Can't wait for the warm weather..the last two days have been horrible Yes bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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