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May 2014


uncle W

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DC's at 85-90 now under clear skies. The warm air isn't far-stupid east wind.

 

Even much of PA is up to 30 degrees warmer than we are around NYC. The low cloud deck that's refused to

burn off is basically one giant middle finger.

 

Even parts of Upstate NY and Northern New England in the 70s. Everyone's warmer just outside that cloud deck:

2pr93f9.jpg

 

5piqdv.jpg

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As far as I'm concerned, I'm thankful we live far enough northeast to enjoy these occasional backdoors during the warm season. I don't at all envy DCA's spring/summer climate. Maybe if I lived in eastern New England, it'd be a different story, as they are often plagued the entire summer with maritime there.

 

But for most of us outside of the immediate shoreline, this type of weather will be all but a memory 30+ days from now. Enjoy the cool while it lasts.

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As far as I'm concerned, I'm thankful we live far enough northeast to enjoy these occasional backdoors during the warm season. I don't at all envy DCA's spring/summer climate. Maybe if I lived in eastern New England, it'd be a different story, as they are often plagued the entire summer with maritime here.

 

But for most of us outside of the immediate shoreline, this type of weather will be all but a memory 30+ days from now. Enjoy the cool while it lasts.

 

 

Iso its time to begin our summer discussions.  I threw up my 90 degree day predictions and will start a summer thread this weekend.  Think we are fairly close to avg and continue a general 5 in a row overall warm summer seasons.  Good to be back and ready for some strong warmth.

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The 0z GFS MOS keeps getting warmer. It gives almost 80+ everyday NE NJ and NYC, between Saturday and Tuesday.

 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  66| 60  79| 59  80| 62  81| 66  88| 65  76| 58  72| 57  73 51 72 TMP  62| 62  72| 63  74| 67  75| 71  78| 68  69| 61  65| 61  66       DPT  57| 60  57| 53  49| 56  61| 61  59| 55  56| 52  52| 50  49      
KTEB   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  67| 60  80| 58  81| 60  83| 65  89| 63  77| 58  73| 55  75 51 71 TMP  63| 63  71| 62  74| 66  75| 70  78| 67  68| 61  65| 59  66       DPT  57| 60  58| 51  50| 55  62| 61  59| 55  55| 53  52| 50  49     
KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  66| 59  79| 60  80| 64  82| 68  85| 65  74| 58  71| 57  74 52 71 TMP  61| 62  70| 63  72| 67  74| 71  75| 67  66| 61  64| 60  65       DPT  57| 60  57| 53  51| 56  59| 62  59| 56  56| 53  51| 49  49      
KLGA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  64| 60  78| 61  78| 64  82| 66  86| 64  74| 59  72| 59  73 52 71 TMP  60| 62  71| 63  72| 68  74| 70  76| 67  67| 61  65| 61  66       DPT  56| 60  57| 52  51| 56  60| 60  58| 55  54| 52  53| 50  49      
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Looks like NYC and Newark will will not reach 90 next week - low 80's in still a possibility especially Tuesday 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

Those GFS plots usually run wayy too cool, and the NWS will almost always hedge toward climo in the long range. If meteostar is showing 84 for Newark under 16 degree C 850s, you can bet they will be around 90.

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Those GFS plots usually run wayy too cool, and the NWS will almost always hedge toward climo in the long range. If meteostar is showing 84 for Newark under 16 degree C 850s, you can bet they will be around 90.

going to depend on cloud cover and low level flow direction for NYC and points east - going to be only a brief window to reach 90 so everything has to fall into place at the right time

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Tuesday's high potential will be contingent on the actual backdoor location. But NYC will

see its first 80 degree reading of the season before then.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  66| 59  79| 60  80| 64  82| 68  85| 65  74| 58  71| 57  74 52 71
NEWARK               KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/09/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       FRI  09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N  66| 60  79| 59  80| 62  81| 66  88| 65  76| 58  72| 57  73 51 72
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It's amazing how all of a sudden the progressive pattern that killed us all winter, or at least prevented us from having a big time KU is going by the waste side and getting replaced with prolonged blocking.

 

That was one of the crappiest GFS runs we've seen in quite some time. How about a cut off low Memorial Day weekend after all the rain next week.

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It's amazing how all of a sudden the progressive pattern that killed us all winter, or at least prevented us from having a big time KU is going by the waste side and getting replaced with prolonged blocking.

That was one of the crappiest GFS runs we've seen in quite some time. How about a cut off low Memorial Day weekend after all the rain next week.

Based on a 360-384 hr gfs run? For all we know it could be 90 and sunny all weekend at this point just as possible as a total washout.

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Based on a 360-384 hr gfs run? For all we know it could be 90 and sunny all weekend at this point just as possible as a total washout.

The block goes into place day 5 as the long wave trough amplifies over the mid-west. God I wish people took the time here to read everything instead of just cherry picking comments or segments of comments.

 

Essentially that pattern persists from day 4-5 through day 8-9 when the base of the trough pinches off and sits and spins directly over the area or just south of the area. That occurs on day 9 and by day 16 the low has only made it to the gulf of Maine.

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Do people realize we are about to enter a 4-5+ day period with very warm temps of 75-90 degrees?

Stop worrying about day 10 crap.

 

Enjoy the warmth coming up. It's about damn time.

snow weenies have a pathological issue with warm temperatures no matter what time of year it is. it's wild
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It may be on the warm side but it's going to likely be a dirty torch with scattered thunderstorms periodically.

 

Who gives a ****.

That's normal. A chance of scattered showers in May and summer? Who would have thought.

Happens every year. Some people will see rain and others wont.

 

All I know is that the next 4-5 days will feature very warm temps and it's about f-in time.

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