jm1220 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 DC's at 85-90 now under clear skies. The warm air isn't far-stupid east wind. Even much of PA is up to 30 degrees warmer than we are around NYC. The low cloud deck that's refused to burn off is basically one giant middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 DC's at 85-90 now under clear skies. The warm air isn't far-stupid east wind. You'll have like 4 months of this so calm down. It's coming in a few days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 DC's at 85-90 now under clear skies. The warm air isn't far-stupid east wind. Even much of PA is up to 30 degrees warmer than we are around NYC. The low cloud deck that's refused to burn off is basically one giant middle finger. Even parts of Upstate NY and Northern New England in the 70s. Everyone's warmer just outside that cloud deck: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 As far as I'm concerned, I'm thankful we live far enough northeast to enjoy these occasional backdoors during the warm season. I don't at all envy DCA's spring/summer climate. Maybe if I lived in eastern New England, it'd be a different story, as they are often plagued the entire summer with maritime there. But for most of us outside of the immediate shoreline, this type of weather will be all but a memory 30+ days from now. Enjoy the cool while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 As far as I'm concerned, I'm thankful we live far enough northeast to enjoy these occasional backdoors during the warm season. I don't at all envy DCA's spring/summer climate. Maybe if I lived in eastern New England, it'd be a different story, as they are often plagued the entire summer with maritime here. But for most of us outside of the immediate shoreline, this type of weather will be all but a memory 30+ days from now. Enjoy the cool while it lasts. Iso its time to begin our summer discussions. I threw up my 90 degree day predictions and will start a summer thread this weekend. Think we are fairly close to avg and continue a general 5 in a row overall warm summer seasons. Good to be back and ready for some strong warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The 0z GFS MOS keeps getting warmer. It gives almost 80+ everyday NE NJ and NYC, between Saturday and Tuesday. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 66| 60 79| 59 80| 62 81| 66 88| 65 76| 58 72| 57 73 51 72 TMP 62| 62 72| 63 74| 67 75| 71 78| 68 69| 61 65| 61 66 DPT 57| 60 57| 53 49| 56 61| 61 59| 55 56| 52 52| 50 49 KTEB GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 67| 60 80| 58 81| 60 83| 65 89| 63 77| 58 73| 55 75 51 71 TMP 63| 63 71| 62 74| 66 75| 70 78| 67 68| 61 65| 59 66 DPT 57| 60 58| 51 50| 55 62| 61 59| 55 55| 53 52| 50 49 KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 66| 59 79| 60 80| 64 82| 68 85| 65 74| 58 71| 57 74 52 71 TMP 61| 62 70| 63 72| 67 74| 71 75| 67 66| 61 64| 60 65 DPT 57| 60 57| 53 51| 56 59| 62 59| 56 56| 53 51| 49 49 KLGA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 64| 60 78| 61 78| 64 82| 66 86| 64 74| 59 72| 59 73 52 71 TMP 60| 62 71| 63 72| 68 74| 70 76| 67 67| 61 65| 61 66 DPT 56| 60 57| 52 51| 56 60| 60 58| 55 54| 52 53| 50 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Nice Convection coming through... Lots of lighting, better than all of last summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Nice Convection coming through Yep. I'm working at Whitehall terminal. Nice lightning show across the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Just had downpour here and some lightning and thunder. Nice cell moving through lower Manhattan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Just got woken up by a thunderstorm. Surprisingly decent light show with just some light rain falling at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Looks like NYC and Newark will will not reach 90 next week - low 80's in still a possibility especially Tuesday http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Looks like NYC and Newark will will not reach 90 next week - low 80's in still a possibility especially Tuesday http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Those GFS plots usually run wayy too cool, and the NWS will almost always hedge toward climo in the long range. If meteostar is showing 84 for Newark under 16 degree C 850s, you can bet they will be around 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Those GFS plots usually run wayy too cool, and the NWS will almost always hedge toward climo in the long range. If meteostar is showing 84 for Newark under 16 degree C 850s, you can bet they will be around 90. going to depend on cloud cover and low level flow direction for NYC and points east - going to be only a brief window to reach 90 so everything has to fall into place at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Newark maybe, NYC probably not, I would lean towards no 90 for both though because of cloud cover. Things look unsettled as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Tuesday's high potential will be contingent on the actual backdoor location. But NYC will see its first 80 degree reading of the season before then. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 66| 59 79| 60 80| 64 82| 68 85| 65 74| 58 71| 57 74 52 71 NEWARK KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 5/09/2014 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 FRI 09| SAT 10| SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16 CLIMO X/N 66| 60 79| 59 80| 62 81| 66 88| 65 76| 58 72| 57 73 51 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The 12z 4km NAM NE NJ and NYC in lower 80s tomorrow, before convection arrives late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The 12z 4km NAM NE NJ and NYC in lower 80s tomorrow, before convection arrives late in the day. I don't know if I'd really be trusting the NAM for anything. It has done really poorly lately. It's a lot drier than the GFS and that's just very strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 I don't know if I'd really be trusting the NAM for anything. It has done really poorly lately. It's a lot drier than the GFS and that's just very strange to me. The gfs isn't that wet tomorrow either...around .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 56 with drizzle over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The gfs isn't that wet tomorrow either...around .25" I'm talking more about overall coverage of precipitation. The NAM focuses more on one semi organized area of rain while the GFS is more scattered thunderstorms with overall more areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 56 with drizzle over here This weather is horrible in Brooklyn. When can we get the W/NW flow back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 The 12z GFS really stalls the cold front out next week. Rain chances Monday-Friday. Nothing excessively heavy but rainy nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 It's amazing how all of a sudden the progressive pattern that killed us all winter, or at least prevented us from having a big time KU is going by the waste side and getting replaced with prolonged blocking. That was one of the crappiest GFS runs we've seen in quite some time. How about a cut off low Memorial Day weekend after all the rain next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 It's amazing how all of a sudden the progressive pattern that killed us all winter, or at least prevented us from having a big time KU is going by the waste side and getting replaced with prolonged blocking. That was one of the crappiest GFS runs we've seen in quite some time. How about a cut off low Memorial Day weekend after all the rain next week. Based on a 360-384 hr gfs run? For all we know it could be 90 and sunny all weekend at this point just as possible as a total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Do people realize we are about to enter a 4-5+ day period with very warm temps of 75-90 degrees? Stop worrying about day 10 crap. Enjoy the warmth coming up. It's about damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Based on a 360-384 hr gfs run? For all we know it could be 90 and sunny all weekend at this point just as possible as a total washout. The block goes into place day 5 as the long wave trough amplifies over the mid-west. God I wish people took the time here to read everything instead of just cherry picking comments or segments of comments. Essentially that pattern persists from day 4-5 through day 8-9 when the base of the trough pinches off and sits and spins directly over the area or just south of the area. That occurs on day 9 and by day 16 the low has only made it to the gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Do people realize we are about to enter a 4-5+ day period with very warm temps of 75-90 degrees? Stop worrying about day 10 crap. Enjoy the warmth coming up. It's about damn time. snow weenies have a pathological issue with warm temperatures no matter what time of year it is. it's wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Do people realize we are about to enter a 4-5+ day period with very warm temps of 75-90 degrees? Stop worrying about day 10 crap. Enjoy the warmth coming up. It's about damn time. It may be on the warm side but it's going to likely be a dirty torch with scattered thunderstorms periodically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 Do people realize we are about to enter a 4-5+ day period with very warm temps of 75-90 degrees? Stop worrying about day 10 crap. Enjoy the warmth coming up. It's about damn time. Essentially the garbage pattern goes into effect day 5 and then persists through the end of the run on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 It may be on the warm side but it's going to likely be a dirty torch with scattered thunderstorms periodically. Who gives a ****. That's normal. A chance of scattered showers in May and summer? Who would have thought. Happens every year. Some people will see rain and others wont. All I know is that the next 4-5 days will feature very warm temps and it's about f-in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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