Weathergun Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The idea of having the heat build in around midmonth as the -NAO broke down looks like it should work out. Once the backdoor threats go away the heat should be building in. The 12z Euro has 582-588dm heights and 850mb temps between 16C to 18C with WSW winds by Tuesday afternoon. Upper 80s to near 90 is doable with that. The 6z GFS/DGEX also showed this. We could also get close to the record highs on Tuesday: NYC 89 LGA 89 EWR 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 7, 2014 Author Share Posted May 7, 2014 90 degree days for April/May... Season.....Apr...May..Total.1944..........0.......1.....11950..........0.......0.....01951..........0.......1.....11952..........0.......0.....01953..........0.......1.....11954..........0.......0.....0 1955..........0.......1.....11956..........0.......0.....01957..........0.......0.....01958..........0.......0.....01959..........0.......3.....31960..........0.......0.....01961..........0.......0.....01962..........1.......3.....41963..........0.......0.....01964..........0.......2.....21965..........0.......4.....41966..........0.......0.....01967..........0.......0.....01968..........0.......0.....01969..........0.......2.....21970..........0.......2.....21971..........0.......0.....01972..........0.......0.....01973..........0.......0.....01974..........0.......1.....11975..........0.......1.....11976..........3.......0.....31977..........1.......2.....31978..........0.......1.....11979..........0.......2.....21980..........0.......2.....21981..........0.......0.....01982..........0.......0.....01983..........0.......0.....01984..........0.......0.....01985..........0.......0.....01986..........0.......3.....31987..........0.......4.....41988..........0.......1.....11989..........0.......0.....01990..........2.......0.....21991..........1.......5.....61992..........0.......2.....21993..........0.......1.....11994..........0.......1.....11995..........0.......0.....01996..........0.......2.....21997..........0.......0.....01998..........0.......0.....01999..........0.......0.....02000..........0.......3.....32001..........0.......3.....32002..........3.......0.....32003..........0.......0.....02004..........0.......0.....02005..........0.......0.....02006..........0.......0.....02007..........0.......2.....22008..........0.......0.....02009..........2.......0.....22010..........1.......1.....22011..........0.......0.....02012..........0.......0.....02013..........0.......2.....2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 80's are a good bet for areas away from the shoreline early next week. 850 temps are approaching 15C and there's a good SW flow. Maybe those of us along the shore can finally make it to 70!! The Euro keeps the South Shore under a strong onshore flow so the 90 degree readings look to make it to around Newark with mid to upper 80's at NYC this run. But maybe Long Beach can reach the 70's before the morning westerly flow turns onshore during the afternoon. Our famous 10-11 am spring high temp followed by a drop when the sea breeze arrives 11-1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The Euro keeps the South Shore under a strong onshore flow so the 90 degree readings look to make it to around Newark with mid to upper 80's at NYC this run. But maybe Long Beach can reach the 70's before the morning westerly flow turns onshore during the afternoon. Our famous 10-11 am spring high temp followed by a drop when the sea breeze arrives 11-1 pm. Screen shot 2014-05-07 at 3.58.21 PM.png Euro prints out 90 into CNJ on Tues but the low 60`s from the Hamptons east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Calling the NWS stupid? I took that directly from their AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH/EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AN AREA OF TSTMS ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS WRN MD/S CENT PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AS PER THE RECENT HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ON THE MOST RECENT ESTF. WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. And Upton using it as well .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SE. SHOWERS UPSTREAM LOOK TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...PER NARRE AND HRRR. PER MORNING SOUNDING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... NEAR NORMAL. COASTAL LOCALES WILL BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO EARLIER SEA BREEZES. The NWS using HRRR and it having the best model verification isn't the same thing at all... Also did you actually look at the HRRR, it keeps the majority of the precip southwest of NYC, and the stuff that is building northeast of me will fall apart by the time it reaches NYC as it will be further away from the better dynamic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 The NWS using HRRR and it having the best model verification isn't the same thing at all... RECENT HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. This is the last comment I'm going to make on the subject. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A BATCH OF TSTMS THAT MOVED FROM NEAR KPIT THEN SE ACROSS NRN MD AND THEN INTO THE DELMARVA EARLIER HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. OTHER SCT SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PA AND THESE ARE MOVING SE. WE HAVE KEPT HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS/SCT THUNDER IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER (AND POSSIBLE MCS) REMAIN IN QUESTION...SINCE MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. A BROAD-BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FCST WAS USED. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY A MAV/LAV BLEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 RECENT HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON IT. This is the last comment I'm going to make on the subject. Reread my edit, plus verification scores are something actually cataloged and no the HRRR isn't the best. So that disagrees with your baseless assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Reread my edit, plus verification scores are something actually cataloged and no the HRRR isn't the best. So that disagrees with your baseless assertion. I never said that the HRRR had the best verification scores, just that it has been handling the convection the best the last few days. But feel free to go ahead and make me out to be stupid. And regarding your edit, I don't live in NYC. The heaviest rain should fall SW of the city which is perfect for me. If you read the Upton and Mt. Holly AFD's they are concerned with how poorly the models are handling the situation. Stating large uncertainty regarding what happens tonight and leaving the door open for a bust in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I never said that the HRRR had the best verification scores, just that it has been handling the convection the best the last few days. But feel free to go ahead and make me out to be stupid. And regarding your edit, I don't live in NYC. The heaviest rain should fall SW of the city which is perfect for me. If you read the Upton and Mt. Holly AFD's they are concerned with how poorly the models are handling the situation. Stating large uncertainty regarding what happens tonight and leaving the door open for a bust in a positive direction. Sure they stated uncertainty but when dealing with convective events it would be correct to hedge your bets in the negative direction especially considering convection for the most part is isolated by nature. Furthermore the reasoning I gave above is why I would focus on a lessened chance for convection. Even the precious HRRR doesn't show anything appreciable even coming close to NYC other than light showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Sure they stated uncertainty but when dealing with convective events it would be correct to hedge your bets in the negative direction especially considering convection for the most part is isolated by nature. Furthermore the reasoning I gave above is why I would focus on a lessened chance for convection. Even the precious HRRR doesn't show anything appreciable even coming close to NYC other than light showers. Well the cool thing is we can watch it unfold and then see what happens. The latest RAP FWIW is much more robust with rain west of NYC and especially towards Trenton although this model has been waffling today as well. This may come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 I never said that the HRRR had the best verification scores, just that it has been handling the convection the best the last few days. But feel free to go ahead and make me out to be stupid. And regarding your edit, I don't live in NYC. The heaviest rain should fall SW of the city which is perfect for me. If you read the Upton and Mt. Holly AFD's they are concerned with how poorly the models are handling the situation. Stating large uncertainty regarding what happens tonight and leaving the door open for a bust in a positive direction. You live NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 You live NW of the city. Barely, almost due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 Well the cool thing is we can watch it unfold and then see what happens. The latest RAP FWIW is much more robust with rain west of NYC and especially towards Trenton although this model has been waffling today as well. This may come down to nowcasting. rap_total_precip_nyc_18.png RAP is also very high on temperature and dew points currently with a 1 hour forecast window. If you want to trust a model that can't get a 1 hour forecast correct be my guest. Honestly the RAP is probably one of the worst models all around and using it beyond even the initialization is a severe mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 RAP is also very high on temperature and dew points currently with a 1 hour forecast window. If you want to trust a model that can't get a 1 hour forecast correct be my guest. Honestly the RAP is probably one of the worst models all around and using it beyond even the initialization is a severe mistake.It nailed the event last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 7, 2014 Share Posted May 7, 2014 It nailed the event last week. That doesn't matter a single bit with respect to the current state of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 That doesn't matter a single bit with respect to the current state of the atmosphere. I appreciate you taking the time to try talking sense into him, but you're wasting your breath. Yanksfan is ALWAYS right, and the pro-mets who try to correct his mistakes and help him actually learn something, are always wrong. He has single-handedly made this forum almost unreadable at this point. It's just a shame nothing's ever done about it. Anyway, I know most of us enjoy reading whatever met input we can since it's become sort of a rarity in the NYC forum, so please don't let him discourage you from posting here in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I appreciate you taking the time to try talking sense into him, but you're wasting your breath. Yanksfan is ALWAYS right, and the pro-mets who try to correct his mistakes and help him actually learn something, are always wrong. He has single-handedly made this forum almost unreadable at this point. It's just a shame nothing's ever done about it. Anyway, I know most of us enjoy reading whatever met input we can since it's become sort of a rarity in the NYC forum, so please don't let him discourage you from posting here in the future. He won't stop me from posting if I pass through here. The rest of the posters here will read the posts and pass their judgement as they see fit. I do however agree that someone shouldn't solely drive the narrative especially if that someone is constantly incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 How about we all go back to discussing the weather instead of having a pissing contest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I appreciate you taking the time to try talking sense into him, but you're wasting your breath. Yanksfan is ALWAYS right, and the pro-mets who try to correct his mistakes and help him actually learn something, are always wrong. He has single-handedly made this forum almost unreadable at this point. It's just a shame nothing's ever done about it. Anyway, I know most of us enjoy reading whatever met input we can since it's become sort of a rarity in the NYC forum, so please don't let him discourage you from posting here in the future. Oh please. There are members on here far worse than yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Oh please. There are members on here far worse than yanksfanSuddenly I'm "controlling this whole sub forum" or something to that effect. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Suddenly I'm "controlling this whole sub forum" or something to that effect. It's all good. Come on dude. Stop playing the victim. I've never called you out before. But when you start arguing with knowledgeable mets, and you're clearly wrong, just leave it alone or admit your mistake and move on. It comes off as disrespectful and arrogant. And as to your "I'm controlling the whole sub-forum" comment; in the spring/summer when there aren't many posts and 80% of them are from you, then yea, I'd say your posts are controlling the sub-forum. Your bickering drowns out solid posts from bluewave, weathergun, donsutherland, and other great posters. It gets old. I'm not trying to drag this thread further off track, so this will be my last post on the matter. All I'm saying is I wish you'd tone your attitude down a little instead of arguing with everyone who disagrees with you, or tries to correct you. Not everyone is out to get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 The D 10 Canadian ensemble depicts the retrogression of the coldest temp anomalies into SW Canada over the coming weeks. SE Canada will be 1-2 SD above normal, which at our latitude, translates to well above normal temperatures for the upcoming 7-10 day period. A cool shot in the May 15th-18th period will knock departures back somewhat, but I anticipate another burst of heat later in the month as well. For those who are getting excited about this pattern for the summer, keep your hopes on the floor for now. May's temp pattern is not often a great indicator and often the inverse pattern to the ensuing summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Come on dude. Stop playing the victim. I've never called you out before. But when you start arguing with knowledgeable mets, and you're clearly wrong, just leave it alone or admit your mistake and move on. It comes off as disrespectful and arrogant. And as to your "I'm controlling the whole sub-forum" comment; in the spring/summer when there aren't many posts and 80% of them are from you, then yea, I'd say your posts are controlling the sub-forum. Your bickering drowns out solid posts from bluewave, weathergun, donsutherland, and other great posters. It gets old. I'm not trying to drag this thread further off track, so this will be my last post on the matter. All I'm saying is I wish you'd tone your attitude down a little instead of arguing with everyone who disagrees with you, or tries to correct you. Not everyone is out to get you. Fair enough. But I can't help that most posters leave here when it's not snow or hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Fair enough. But I can't help that most posters leave here when it's not snow or hurricane season. I think snow is the most popular item for discussion because most people find it to be the most aesthetically pleasing weather phenomenon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 The CFS is going with the idea of another Western Atlantic Ridge pattern this summer. Notice how it had the warm summer departure forecast for New England last summer but missed the magnitude here. The CFS has a similar look this year so it will come down to the verification of the ridge position and strength this year. Summer 2014 forecast usT2mSeaInd2.gif 2013 summer forecast 13t.gif verification temp.png This will be an interesting summer to track. The JAMSTEC forecast has no WAR influence at all w/ a fairly dominant cool pattern for the Lakes and Northeast. Seems to continue the blocking over AK and introduce a -NAO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Oh please. There are members on here far worse than yanksfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I think snow is the most popular item for discussion because most people find it to be the most aesthetically pleasing weather phenomenon... I specifically remember when Willa Cather penned Paul's Case circa 1905 or thereabouts...she made the weather conditions central to the element of setting...when the title character Paul was in Pittsburgh...a town he held nothing but contempt for because he believed it to be a town for the rabble and working class...Cather made dreary rain the prevailing wx condition....but when Paul moved on to NYC....Cather had it snow continuously there...to make the setting a far more pristine one...in direct contravention to what she had painted for Pittsburgh. And, of course, Paul felt NYC was the center of the Universe...where the gentry & upper classes enjoyed all that the earth had to offer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 How about we all go back to discussing the weather instead of having a pissing contest? Seriously dude, you attack every perceived challenge to anything you post. Admit you are wrong and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 Seriously dude, you attack every perceived challenge to anything you post. Admit you are wrong and move on. I approve of this post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 8, 2014 Share Posted May 8, 2014 I approve of this post... How's spring going out on the island? Finally this week it has looked like it here, took forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.