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uncle W

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Average Temperature and precipitation at KNYC...
decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...
1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8....................................................2.......2.50"
1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"
1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"
1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"
1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"
1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"
1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"
1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 1946
1950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"
1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"
1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 1977
1980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"
1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"
2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"
2010's....64.4...65.3...62.8......92......41......90.0......44.5.........3.......5.38" 2010-2013
1870-
2009......61.8...65.9...58.0.........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"
1980-
2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4.........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"

warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......
68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 1903
67.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 1887
67.0 in 1944...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 1964
67.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 1880
66.4 in 1965...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 1905
66.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 1939
66.0 in 1986...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 1877
65.8 in 1975...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 1935
65.7 in 1993...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 1899
65.6 in 1980...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944

warmest temperatures...
99 5/19/1962
97 5/29/1969
97 5/30/1987
96 5/20/1996
96 5/22/1941
96 5/27/1880
96 5/29/1987
96 5/31/1895
95 5/25/1880
95 5/26/1880
95 5/27/1914
coldest temperatures...
32 5/06/1891
34 5/05/1891
35 5/01/1880
35 5/09/1947
36 5/11/1913
36 5/10/1966
36 5/10/1947
36 5/09/1977
36 5/03/1874
36 5/01/1876

since 1950...

36 5/10/1966

36 5/09/1977

38 5/19/1976... latest 38 on record...

38 5/08/1956

38 5/07/1970

38 5/01/1963

38 5/01/1978

39 5/24/1963... latest 39 on record...

39 5/08/1977

39 5/06/1967

39 5/03/1957

39 5/02/1963

coldest max days...
43 5/3/1873
43 5/5/1891
44 5/7/1967
44 5/5/1917
44 5/9/1977
45 5/1/1917
45 5/2/1962
45 5/5/1978
45 5/6/1891
46 5/25/1967+
warmest min. days...
76 5/31/1987
75 5/31/1895

75 5/31/2013
74 5/09/2000
74 5/20/1996
74 5/27/1908
74 5/29/1969
74 5/30/1987
73 5/25/1880
73 5/28/1959
73 5/30/1986+



Warmest monthly minimum...
49 in 2012
49 in 1982
48 in 1899
48 in 1910
47 in 1942
47 in 1944
47 in 1969
47 in 1991
46 in 2011
46 in 2000
46 in 1999 + =and other years...
coldest monthly maximum...
75 in 1924
79 in 2005
79 in 2003
79 in 1983
79 in 1928
79 in 1927
79 in 1915
80 in 1968
80 in 1882

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Great stats, Uncle. This looks like the first year since 2000 that the first NYC 80 degree reading happens in May.

 

NYC May first 80 years since 1988:

 

2000

1997

1995

1993

1988

What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess.
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What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess.

 

The NCDC site has been down recently, so maybe Uncle has that data on his computer.

We are currently the latest that we haven't reached 80 in NYC since 2001.

 

First 80 of recent years in NYC:

 

4-19-13

4-16-12

4-11-11

4-7-10

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Ensembles in good agreement on a cool start to May with no meaningful warm ups in the distant future. Rain also looks to be above average as we head into May.

test8.gif

Still big ridging over Alaska (-EPO). It's amazing that feature has been so consistent for the last year. I have a feeling this is going to be a wet summer especially if the Niño continues to develop

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for what it's worth accu weather's long range May outlook has a monthly max of 79...I think KNYC will get as high as 86 for May's max and 90 in Newark...that probably comes the second half of the month but one warm day the first half can't be ruled out either...

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That's pretty amazing, we've hit 85 in central nj this month yet the city hasn't even hit 80 yet?

The pattern coming up is far from torching but it starts to get easier to reach 80 the deeper you go into the Spring. You can 80 under sunny skies and a down sloping flow in May.

Yeah it hit 83 here back on the 13th.

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depressing outlook

It looks near normal, in what ways is that depressing. I don't get why people are so adamant on pushing the warm/hot button so early. You'll get so much heat that you'll all complain endlessly about it from June through mid September at least.

Calm down it's not like it'll be rain and 50s everyday. Normal in May is 70s by mid month, how is that terrible exactly?

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JFK is also on track for one of the later first 70 degree days of spring in recent years

as the high so far this spring is 69.

 

First 70 degree or higher reading of spring at JFK:

 

4-9-13.......83

3-14-12.....72

3-18-11.....79

3-20-10.....70

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JFK is also on track for one of the later first 70 degree days of spring in recent years

as the high so far this spring is 69.

I don't think Long Beach has come anywhere close to 70 yet, as the days we had those readings in NYC and west, the winds were out of the south. You can tell where the sea breeze has really been a problem due to the slower tree budding out at home vs. the city and inland areas.

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Guest Pamela

The CPC's 8 to 14 day outlook does have some definite warmth building over the Southeast & Mid Atlantic States...though cool air appears to be hanging on near the Canadian border.  In my experience, the CPC people do a pretty good job with these medium range forecasts.

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It looks near normal, in what ways is that depressing. I don't get why people are so adamant on pushing the warm/hot button so early. You'll get so much heat that you'll all complain endlessly about it from June through mid September at least.

Calm down it's not like it'll be rain and 50s everyday. Normal in May is 70s by mid month, how is that terrible exactly?

 

 

We pull together a string of several months cooler than normal and much of the public acts like this is unprecedented. 2010-2012 was so extreme with the warmth that I think it skewed people's views of what "normal" really is. This spring has certainly been colder than normal, but IMO the past 6 months have been a nice, refreshing change from the seemingly eternal hell of 2010-12.

 

As you said, it will get warm eventually, and in another month from now, sub normal will feel comfortable (60s). Cool summers around here are pleasant, though not great for pool/swimming so much. July 2009 was beautiful but it felt more like early September with countless days of 77-80 degree highs and lows in the 55-60 degree range.

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I loved July 2009, one of the most pleasant summer months I've ever experienced. People were pissed though because it was a bit too cool for the pools and beaches, but I think most were happy to not face the normally sweltering heat during the work week so it was purely subjective.

March certainly was much cooler than normal but April will only end up slightly cooler than normal. Many places away from the immediate coast will end up right around normal, especially in inland NJ.

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The long range guidance is indicating a warm up for the second week of May and the

CFS is indicating that May will finish with above normal temperatures here. This is the

first time since December that the CFS has gone above normal when NYC finished

the month at +1.

 

 

 

 

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Last nights Euro had another long wave trough moving through the center of the country with blocking in place. Could be another cut off low.

Yes, the troughing northeast of us looks to be very persistent. It could be quite nice when there aren't any storms around, but the threat for backdoors and stratus decks is very real as long as a regime like that persists.

 

The heat looks to be building up though in the center of the country, so when this pattern finally breaks, there could be an early heat wave. There are signs on the long range Euro that it could happen closer to mid-month.

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Looks like a negative NAO till at least mid-May before a brief jump to neutral and before things look to dive back negative again. I would be very reluctant to forecast a period of above average temperatures for the forcible future. But it's May now and even seasonable means highs in the 70's for most locations.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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The Euro ensembles are really ugly beyond day 10. They keep New England backdoored with a mean trough over the lakes. That should bring continued average to below average temps and average to above average rainfall.

 

We might even have another ULL to work with in the day 10-14 range. It has been hinted at for awhile now.

 

 

 

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