uncle W Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Average Temperature and precipitation at KNYC...decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8....................................................2.......2.50"1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 19461950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 19771980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"2010's....64.4...65.3...62.8......92......41......90.0......44.5.........3.......5.38" 2010-20131870-2009......61.8...65.9...58.0.........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"1980-2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4.........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 190367.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 188767.0 in 1944...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 196467.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 188066.4 in 1965...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 190566.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 193966.0 in 1986...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 187765.8 in 1975...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 193565.7 in 1993...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 189965.6 in 1980...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944warmest temperatures...99 5/19/196297 5/29/196997 5/30/198796 5/20/199696 5/22/194196 5/27/188096 5/29/198796 5/31/189595 5/25/188095 5/26/188095 5/27/1914coldest temperatures...32 5/06/189134 5/05/189135 5/01/188035 5/09/194736 5/11/191336 5/10/196636 5/10/194736 5/09/197736 5/03/187436 5/01/1876 since 1950... 36 5/10/1966 36 5/09/1977 38 5/19/1976... latest 38 on record... 38 5/08/1956 38 5/07/1970 38 5/01/1963 38 5/01/1978 39 5/24/1963... latest 39 on record... 39 5/08/1977 39 5/06/1967 39 5/03/1957 39 5/02/1963 coldest max days...43 5/3/187343 5/5/189144 5/7/196744 5/5/191744 5/9/197745 5/1/191745 5/2/196245 5/5/197845 5/6/189146 5/25/1967+warmest min. days...76 5/31/198775 5/31/1895 75 5/31/201374 5/09/200074 5/20/199674 5/27/190874 5/29/196974 5/30/198773 5/25/188073 5/28/195973 5/30/1986+Warmest monthly minimum...49 in 201249 in 198248 in 189948 in 191047 in 194247 in 194447 in 196947 in 199146 in 201146 in 200046 in 1999 + =and other years...coldest monthly maximum...75 in 192479 in 200579 in 200379 in 198379 in 192879 in 192779 in 191580 in 196880 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Ensembles in good agreement on a cool start to May with no meaningful warm ups in the distant future. Rain also looks to be above average as we head into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 this weeks enso was +0.4...Up a bit from last week...el nino is not there yet... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 some May analogs for this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Great stats, Uncle. This looks like the first year since 2000 that the first NYC 80 degree reading happens in May. NYC May first 80 years since 1988: 2000 1997 1995 1993 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Great stats, Uncle. This looks like the first year since 2000 that the first NYC 80 degree reading happens in May. NYC May first 80 years since 1988: 2000 1997 1995 1993 1988 What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess. It was already well above 80 degrees this year in New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess. The NCDC site has been down recently, so maybe Uncle has that data on his computer. We are currently the latest that we haven't reached 80 in NYC since 2001. First 80 of recent years in NYC: 4-19-13 4-16-12 4-11-11 4-7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 It could be a while, too, looking at the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That's pretty amazing, we've hit 85 in central nj this month yet the city hasn't even hit 80 yet? The pattern coming up is far from torching but it starts to get easier to reach 80 the deeper you go into the Spring. You can 80 under sunny skies and a down sloping flow in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Ensembles in good agreement on a cool start to May with no meaningful warm ups in the distant future. Rain also looks to be above average as we head into May. Still big ridging over Alaska (-EPO). It's amazing that feature has been so consistent for the last year. I have a feeling this is going to be a wet summer especially if the Niño continues to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 What is the latest occurence of the first 80 deg. day at CPK? Gotta assume a pattern change by that date I guess. I think it was June 7th 1924... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 depressing outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 for what it's worth accu weather's long range May outlook has a monthly max of 79...I think KNYC will get as high as 86 for May's max and 90 in Newark...that probably comes the second half of the month but one warm day the first half can't be ruled out either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 That's pretty amazing, we've hit 85 in central nj this month yet the city hasn't even hit 80 yet? The pattern coming up is far from torching but it starts to get easier to reach 80 the deeper you go into the Spring. You can 80 under sunny skies and a down sloping flow in May. Yeah it hit 83 here back on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 depressing outlook It looks near normal, in what ways is that depressing. I don't get why people are so adamant on pushing the warm/hot button so early. You'll get so much heat that you'll all complain endlessly about it from June through mid September at least. Calm down it's not like it'll be rain and 50s everyday. Normal in May is 70s by mid month, how is that terrible exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 JFK is also on track for one of the later first 70 degree days of spring in recent years as the high so far this spring is 69. First 70 degree or higher reading of spring at JFK: 4-9-13.......83 3-14-12.....72 3-18-11.....79 3-20-10.....70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 JFK is also on track for one of the later first 70 degree days of spring in recent years as the high so far this spring is 69. I don't think Long Beach has come anywhere close to 70 yet, as the days we had those readings in NYC and west, the winds were out of the south. You can tell where the sea breeze has really been a problem due to the slower tree budding out at home vs. the city and inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The CPC's 8 to 14 day outlook does have some definite warmth building over the Southeast & Mid Atlantic States...though cool air appears to be hanging on near the Canadian border. In my experience, the CPC people do a pretty good job with these medium range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 It looks near normal, in what ways is that depressing. I don't get why people are so adamant on pushing the warm/hot button so early. You'll get so much heat that you'll all complain endlessly about it from June through mid September at least. Calm down it's not like it'll be rain and 50s everyday. Normal in May is 70s by mid month, how is that terrible exactly? We pull together a string of several months cooler than normal and much of the public acts like this is unprecedented. 2010-2012 was so extreme with the warmth that I think it skewed people's views of what "normal" really is. This spring has certainly been colder than normal, but IMO the past 6 months have been a nice, refreshing change from the seemingly eternal hell of 2010-12. As you said, it will get warm eventually, and in another month from now, sub normal will feel comfortable (60s). Cool summers around here are pleasant, though not great for pool/swimming so much. July 2009 was beautiful but it felt more like early September with countless days of 77-80 degree highs and lows in the 55-60 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I loved July 2009, one of the most pleasant summer months I've ever experienced. People were pissed though because it was a bit too cool for the pools and beaches, but I think most were happy to not face the normally sweltering heat during the work week so it was purely subjective. March certainly was much cooler than normal but April will only end up slightly cooler than normal. Many places away from the immediate coast will end up right around normal, especially in inland NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The long range guidance is indicating a warm up for the second week of May and the CFS is indicating that May will finish with above normal temperatures here. This is the first time since December that the CFS has gone above normal when NYC finished the month at +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Last nights Euro had another long wave trough moving through the center of the country with blocking in place. Could be another cut off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Last nights Euro had another long wave trough moving through the center of the country with blocking in place. Could be another cut off low. Yes, the troughing northeast of us looks to be very persistent. It could be quite nice when there aren't any storms around, but the threat for backdoors and stratus decks is very real as long as a regime like that persists. The heat looks to be building up though in the center of the country, so when this pattern finally breaks, there could be an early heat wave. There are signs on the long range Euro that it could happen closer to mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 With some breaks of sun today, May should get off to a warm start in the 70's from NJ into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Is this weekend salvageable for yard work? Haven't really been looking ahead and it's hard to interpret the forecasts from a practical point of view... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Looks like a negative NAO till at least mid-May before a brief jump to neutral and before things look to dive back negative again. I would be very reluctant to forecast a period of above average temperatures for the forcible future. But it's May now and even seasonable means highs in the 70's for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 The 12z GFS has some measurable rain Saturday and Sunday area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 The Euro ensembles are really ugly beyond day 10. They keep New England backdoored with a mean trough over the lakes. That should bring continued average to below average temps and average to above average rainfall. We might even have another ULL to work with in the day 10-14 range. It has been hinted at for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 1, 2014 Share Posted May 1, 2014 Just took a look at the 12z GFS. Looks like a wash, rinse, repeat of the current pattern days 8-10. Big low over the Mid-West. More severe chances down in the Mississippi delta region and periods of heavy rain to the south and east of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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