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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

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Looks like all the activity is going to miss Wake wide right.  I wonder if anything will form west or if they'll have to cut the watch down soon?

 

I was wondering the same. I am noticing more storms developing in SC...and they may track toward the region, so I don't think this is over yet.

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Newer couplet western Wilson Co could be big trouble track would take it into the greater Wilson area.....

They just warned it.  Also I'm not sure I would have pulled the warning for the first storm considering the public reported a tornado like 15 minutes before they yanked the warning.

 

And they just had to put the warning back up for the first storm around Wilson because there's a tornado on the ground.  Come on KRAX, give the people some warning.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...

   VALID 292038Z - 292215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 117 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WW 117 THROUGH
   EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   WELL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF
   THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD
   ACROSS ERN NC JUST TO THE EAST OF RALEIGH.  THE STORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
   70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
   VWP AT RALEIGH SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE 0-3 STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITY OF 375 M2/S2. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
   THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS DUE TO THE
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.
   WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR AND SHOULD BE ENHANCED NEAR SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENTS.

 

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We're about 9 miles west of I-95 straight out Hwy 70. All the activity has been up or just East of 95 so far. Did see some low level clouds a little earlier (4:30 +/-) racing in from the North, so one of those cells apparently had a very broad low level circulation.

 

Currently 70/68. Really muggy out.

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Yeah even the little ones are rotating quickly that one will be closer only 15 miles west of me....

 

Will be interesting to see if it all turns into one storm with a strong hook headed towards or just north (Bethel area) of Greenville.  Fun to watch on radar but scary for you guys in the path.

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I'm thinking this whole system is underperforming for mby. Been under a flood watch since Monday , and only had a few sprinkles! Don't want tornadoes, but a nice thunderstorm wouldn't be too bad? All local media was touting flooding and 4-6 inches of rain, and we have about a day to get all that rain, and nothing within about 300 miles of here on the radar! Need rain for the garden!

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