Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Even if the clouds hang on today, we still have to worry about tomorrow. Just trying to remember the last big outbreak we had in NC back in April 2011. What was it like that morning? I thought it was similar to today, cloudy and overcast for the most of the day, and then the sun came out some in the afternoon. It doesn't take much if the conditions are ripe enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Yeah..visible imagery shows the low cloud deck eroding SE of the Triangle from SE to NW. Will be interesting to see if we can break out of this low cloud deck in the Triangle by early afternoon. The fog is starting to lift in downtown. It's still foggy, but it's noticeably less so than a half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Even if the clouds hang on today, we still have to worry about tomorrow. Just trying to remember the last big outbreak we had in NC back in April 2011. What was it like that morning? I thought it was similar to today, cloudy and overcast for the most of the day, and then the sun came out some in the afternoon. It doesn't take much if the conditions are ripe enough. Yup, it was incredibly windy and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I don't think we are going to have much severe weather all our moisture is hanging by the gulf.. 81 with full sunshine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I just took a look at the national radar which shows a growing split between an area of precipitation in Alabama and Georgia near the gulf and another area just to the north of the North Carolina/Virginia border. I'm wondering if today will turn out to be like yesterday for central NC with very little rain and overcast skies. It's almost noon and the temperature outside is 56F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 I don't think we are going to have much severe weather all our moisture is hanging by the gulf.. 81 with full sunshine here PWATS are 1.3-1.5" over all of central and eastern NC thats above normal for this time of year.....plenty of moisture to work with....there will be storms firing along the boundry and all in the warm sector of NC later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Last hour Raleigh was 57 while Goldsboro was 71...there's a boundary in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Last hour Raleigh was 57 while Goldsboro was 71...there's a boundary in there somewhere. Finally got some stronger filtered sun here and temps are responding as are DP's going to be interesting to see if the storms can get going and how they do today might be a good indicator of how tomorrow will go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Matthew East 15 mins · Clouds continue to thin across SC and southern NC. Temp up to 79 in Chester, SC and 84 in Florence, SC. #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Finally got some stronger filtered sun here and temps are responding as are DP's going to be interesting to see if the storms can get going and how they do today might be a good indicator of how tomorrow will go...... The clouds continue to thin SE of the Triangle. Also, take note of the two cells that have developed near Greensboro in the last hour...that's interesting to me given the stable/cool air regime there. If storms are firing there I suspect there will be greater coverage this afternoon in the warm sector as better lift overspreads the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 12:30 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Looped imagery clearly shows clearing pushing in from the SE in NC. 70 in Fort Bragg, 56 in Siler City, and 80's already being reported across SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 looking at the visibile imagery, eastern NC and far east SC should see some decent heating today with a thin cloud layer. Down here in SENC, had plenty of FOG Early this morning... Sunshine;(fuel) has broken through, It's MUGGY, Wind(s), West~ WSW around 10~15mph... Temp(s) currently 77, dew of high 60's... Looking for the SeaBreeze to Hopefully to fire today, though for severe Activity, T-storms, I'd be Looking more Inland around the **Piedmont trough** ... Fairly New overview of this; related to Weather here throughout the Coastal Plain & Central NC/SC/GA.. (As another poster opined about Fayettnam/ Elizabeth Town and sections of the CENTRAL Coastal Plain... Being a **Tornado Magnet**).... Great explanation; for those that haven't read up on this relative New Phenomena discovered here in the Coastal Plain(s).. Hope I made a contribution to the thread... LINK--> http://theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/026/index.html In part---> QUOTE: The piedmont trough is a relatively new discovery in the eastern part of North Carolina. The key effects of a piedmont trough are soil type and diurnal heating. The North Carolina Sandhills region of the Southeast is an elongated area of sandy soil that is located adjacent to regions of varying soil type. The Piedmont area in the eastern part of the state has soils that are mainly loam and clay-loam, while a variety of soil types exists in the Coastal Plain to the southeast. It is the differences in these soil types that create differential heating of the surface. Areas with sandy soil will more easily release their moisture to the area, allowing for a higher sensible heat flux than loam or clay-loam soils. This allows more energy to be used for heating the surface rather than evaporating moisture in the soil. Also, the heat capacity for sand is much less than that of clay or loam, so that given the same amount of energy, sandy soil would increase in temperature more than the loam or clay soils. End quote.. As per Disc's Sat Pic, I notice some Gravity Waves "incoming"... Look closely at the Sat Pic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SRN AND ERN MS INTO W CENTRAL/SW AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. ...MS/AL AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT... A 90-120 KT MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NEWD FROM TX TO THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE JET STREAK MANIFESTED AS THE MID CLOUD BAND FROM TXK-JBR. IN RESPONSE TO THIS JET STREAK...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM LA TO THE TN VALLEY...BEGINNING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL LA. IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS...RAPID RECOVERY IS ENSUING FROM LA TO SRN MS AS SURFACE HEATING OCCURS AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SPREADS NEWD. THE PLUME OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE NW GULF COAST...WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THE LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS LA BY MIDDAY...WHILE LESSER BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO AL. STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF RAPID DESTABILIZATION...AND A COMBINATION OF DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MS/AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MCS TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AL. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 IN A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...NC THIS AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...MODERATE BUOYANCY IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Sun is trying to peek out here in Cashiers. Nearly 65 degrees now, won't take much insolation to crank those storms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Looks like a pretty intense storm in Alamance County right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Fog continues to lift here. Temp trying to crack 60. I'd say by 3:00, we'll be around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You can really see the clouds erode over the SE part of NC here in the sat loop http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?param=1kmvissat&model=analysis&map=SE I hope to see a break in the clouds by mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 If there was just a little more moisture being transported overhead, I'd like my chances at a good old fashioned thunderboomer Looks like I have that nice little complex of storms in Florida to thank for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The 12z GFS has increased the rain totals for both GSO and RDU. Below is the graph for GSO...over 4" of rain, most of which is convective. RDU went from 1.something to 3.7" from the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 If there was just a little more moisture being transported overhead, I'd like my chances at a good old fashioned thunderboomer Looks like I have that nice little complex of storms in Florida to thank for that You sitting on a powder keg and the shear is flexing in from the west on the latest SPC meso products, the thing hurting you guys is something to set off the powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Warming up nicely down this way. 70° IMBY - 68/61 over at the airport(KJNX). Filtered sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You sitting on a powder keg and the shear is flexing in from the west on the latest SPC meso products, the thing hurting you guys is something to set off the powder keg. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Crazy, DEW just shot up from 67 to NOW,, ---> 77 in since My last post... Temp 77 Heat Index 78 °F Dew Point 77 °F Humidity 100% Updated Local AFD for the SENC area(s)... Area forecast discussionNational Weather Service Wilmington NC1159 am EDT Tuesday Apr 29 2014Synopsis...the risk for severe weather will increase today and peak Wednesdayand Wednesday night. Severe weather may still be possible onThursday. A cold front will move across the area late week. Highpressure will bring dry weather for the weekend...although a frontmay approach the area from the north early next week.&&Near term /through tonight/...as of 1140 am Tuesday...a front lies just to the north of a linefrom Watha to Elizabethtown to Lumberton. This front will likelybecome the focus for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoonand evening. This front will try to lift further to the norththrough tonight...but if a large number of storms do indeeddevelop...the front may have a difficult time making any significantnorthward advancement as in this scenario...a significant cool poolwould develop. The highest risk for damaging winds and large hailwill be west of the seabreeze. Although a tornado can not be ruled outanywhere along and west of the seabreeze...the highest risk for atornado will be along the frontal boundary draped along and north of theforecast area where converging winds and shear will be strongest andmost persistent.Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected along apronounced seabreeze boundary. Finally...other showers andthunderstorms may develop anywhere across the forecast area or moveinto the area from the west and SW as we will remain in the warm andunstable sector ahead of an upper level disturbance.P/west values will be near 1.50 inches and so the risk for heavy rainis high. Any convection that redevelops in the same general area ortrains will have the potential to produce significant ponding.Temperatures will remain above average through the period...withhighs in the lower to middle 80s...middle and upper 70s at the immediatecoast...and lows in the muggy upper 60s and lower 70s.&&Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...as of 300 am Tuesday...expect a rather unsettled couple of days as aslow moving middle level system moves across the Midwest. I haveincrementally increased probability of precipitation across the board. The highest valuesoccur between 0000 and 0600 UTC Thursday when the best forcing...middleand upper level divergence and moisture...the atmospheric river nowmoving across the middle south are coupled. Storm Prediction Center continues to highlightthe area in a slight risk for Wednesday. No changes to thetemperature forecast which will be highly dependent on the coverageand timing of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...NC...FAR SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291726Z - 291900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SCNTRL NC AND NRN SC...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WRF-HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET...CELLS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 EVIDENT ON THE RALEIGH NC WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Where did you get this graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Here comes the sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Where did you get this graphic? RAH on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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