Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 474
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I agree. Either tomorrow or Wednesday, I bet we'll see a mod risk for the area.

 

The key part to take away from the afternoon write up from RAH....this is for Wed. basically we are primed to spin updrafts and it will be one of those days where radar indicated vs ground truth ratios will be high.....BUT we need the sun to jack up the instability to produce those updrafts......also any differential heating we get due to left over MCS rain or cloud debris etc will also help in priming boundries to focus convection on. If we get periods of filtered sun or out right sun Wed it could be a rough day for a lot of NC/SC.....nothing like 2011 but still a decent outbreak by our standards.

 

WITH UPPER

DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC LATE IN THE DAY.

PROVIDED THAT TUE NIGHT`S CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT OF

CENTRAL/ERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOME INSOLATION... WE

MAY ACHIEVE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH DEEP

LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS REMAIN BROADLY CURVED

WED WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY OVER 200 M2/S2... EHI EXCEEDING 2.5... AND

VGP OVER 0.3 M/S2... SUGGESTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE A GOOD BET

GIVEN ENOUGH ASCENT VIA DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. WILL

CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING

FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC... FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND-

PRODUCING BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING A FEW

TORNADOES. EQUALLY AS CONCERNING IS THE THREAT FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF

TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS/CLUSTERS GENERATING EXTENDED PERIODS OF

HEAVY RAINFALL...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1106 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULLOWHEE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
  SYLVA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CULLOWHEE AND SYLVA.
  BALSAM.
  MAGGIE VALLEY AND WAYNESVILLE.
  LAKE JUNALUSKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tornado Emergency out for Tuscaloosa

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...
 
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...
 
AT 1012 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELTON STATE
COMMUNITY COLLEGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF TUSCALOOSA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MCFARLAND MALL...UNIVERSITY MALL...LAKE WILDWOOD...DEERLICK CREEK
  CAMPGROUNDS...COALING...BROOKWOOD...VANCE...ABERNANT...BULL CITY
  AND LAKE VIEW.
 
THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 68 THROUGH 100..
Link to comment
Share on other sites

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SYLVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BALSAM.
  MAGGIE VALLEY AND WAYNESVILLE.
  LAKE JUNALUSKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO IS LIKELY DEVELOPING OR ALREADY OCCURRING. SEEK SHELTER IN
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OFFICE BUILDING.
PLACE AS MANY FLOORS AND WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The key part to take away from the afternoon write up from RAH....this is for Wed. basically we are primed to spin updrafts and it will be one of those days where radar indicated vs ground truth ratios will be high.....BUT we need the sun to jack up the instability to produce those updrafts......also any differential heating we get due to left over MCS rain or cloud debris etc will also help in priming boundries to focus convection on. If we get periods of filtered sun or out right sun Wed it could be a rough day for a lot of NC/SC.....nothing like 2011 but still a decent outbreak by our standards.

WITH UPPER

DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC LATE IN THE DAY.

PROVIDED THAT TUE NIGHT`S CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT OF

CENTRAL/ERN NC BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOME INSOLATION... WE

MAY ACHIEVE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH DEEP

LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS REMAIN BROADLY CURVED

WED WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY OVER 200 M2/S2... EHI EXCEEDING 2.5... AND

VGP OVER 0.3 M/S2... SUGGESTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE A GOOD BET

GIVEN ENOUGH ASCENT VIA DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. WILL

CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING

FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC... FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND-

PRODUCING BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING A FEW

TORNADOES. EQUALLY AS CONCERNING IS THE THREAT FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF

TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS/CLUSTERS GENERATING EXTENDED PERIODS OF

HEAVY RAINFALL...

You chasing?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 1155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED NEAR CULLOWHEE...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF SYLVA...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BALSAM.
  MAGGIE VALLEY.
  WAYNESVILLE.
  LAKE JUNALUSKA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

TORNADO WATCH 114 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC011-085-117-119-137-139-147-187-241-257-281-291-311-291100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0114.140429T0430Z-140429T1100Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANKS DAWSON FORSYTH
FRANKLIN HABERSHAM HALL
HART LUMPKIN RABUN
STEPHENS TOWNS UNION
WHITE
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

TORNADO WATCH 114 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC021-039-043-075-087-089-099-111-113-115-121-149-161-173-175-
199-291100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0114.140429T0430Z-140429T1100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE CLAY
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
JACKSON MACON MADISON
MCDOWELL MITCHELL POLK
RUTHERFORD SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA
YANCEY
$$
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

TORNADO WATCH 114 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SCC007-045-073-077-291100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0114.140429T0430Z-140429T1100Z/

SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON GREENVILLE OCONEE
PICKENS
$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the TN peeps have their own forum but figured I would add this as it is part of # 114

 

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

TORNADO WATCH 114 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC009-029-057-059-063-089-093-105-107-123-139-155-173-291100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0114.140429T0430Z-140429T1100Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLOUNT COCKE GRAINGER
GREENE HAMBLEN JEFFERSON
KNOX LOUDON MCMINN
MONROE POLK SEVIER
UNION
$$


ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX...GSP...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  WEST CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT

* AT 113 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF SANTEETLAH LAKE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
  ROBBINSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SANTEETLAH LAKE.
  FONTANA VILLAGE AND TAPOCO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...