Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

Recommended Posts

Yeah, this is going to go down as a monster bust for the western areas for both severe and rain. It's amazing that technology and forecasting ability can still be so poor at times.

also a gigantic bust of epic proportions in Atlanta. Up to 8" of rain forecast by TWC. They've picked up about 1/2". I guess no model forecast that large complex of thunderstorms near the gulf coast which cut off moisture further north? You would think with technology today models would pick up on that.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 474
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It's kind of a double-edged sword. I really don't want destructive tornadoes and storms. But if they are going to hype it like it was this past Sunday for today and yesterday, then if we don't get anything it will just make more people not pay attention the next time because they will think it's the boy crying wolf.

 

But the forecast is usually a lot more accurate when it comes to severe weather around here compared to snow.

 

This is what concerns me most.  Particularly in places like Atlanta.  We've had some fairly busted precip forecasts in recent months (that last big winter storm was a huge bust here), and around here it usually doesn't take many of those busts for people to question the wisdom of spending/losing money on {States of Emergency, salt, sand, trucks, extra personnel, cancelling school, closing the business for the day, insert your costly item here} when the forecasted serious events are not often panning out to be real.  So the funding will get cut, businesses and school supers will be less willing to close in advance of events, there will be little preparation prior to storms, and eventually we'll lose the luck lotto and have kids on stranded on school buses at 2am again.

 

I think we just need to be spending a lot more on science and research than we are, so we can get incrementally better at prediction and improving the models.

 

.25" in MBY gauge (from a predicted 5"), but it's been a nice breezy few days at least.  The birds have been having fun!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well we are about to get a lot of rain we don't need every ditch and creek is running full and a few hrs of heavy rain will have nowhere to go......add in rush hour coming up and its going to be a mess.

Rush hour in Greenville is a mess regardless of the weather.  That's one thing I will never miss (it's not like Charlotte is any better btw).

Link to comment
Share on other sites


ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IS MAINLY A FLOODING

THREAT AT THIS POINT WITH VERY FEW DISCRETE ELEMENTS LEFT. EXPECT

THIS AREA TO MOVE MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 21Z.

MEANWHILE...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE CAPE HAS BEEN

UNTAPPED SO FAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 45-50KT

THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY

VEER WITH TIME...THEY DO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED...AND THE DEEP LAYER

SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WHICH MAINTAINS THE

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING

WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS BIGGEST QUESTION HAS BEEN WHAT WILL

TRIGGER STORMS. THERE IS A WAKE LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING UP FROM GS

AND THROUGH UPSTATE SC TODAY...WHICH IS NOW SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN OBS

OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER

THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MANY AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAVE

RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN....THE ADDITIONAL STORMS

THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IS MAINLY A FLOODING THREAT AT THIS POINT WITH VERY FEW DISCRETE ELEMENTS LEFT.  EXPECT THIS AREA TO MOVE MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA BY 21Z.  MEANWHILE...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE CAPE HAS BEEN UNTAPPED SO FAR TODAY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 45-50KT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME...THEY DO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED...AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WHICH MAINTAINS THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.   THIS BIGGEST QUESTION HAS BEEN WHAT WILL TRIGGER STORMS.  THERE IS A WAKE LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING UP FROM GS AND THROUGH UPSTATE SC TODAY...WHICH IS NOW SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN OBS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT.  THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MANY AREAS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN....THE ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY STILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

 

there is the answer for the person who posted earlier wondering where all the none thunderstorm wind in SC came from today......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain..

When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours?

You mean SW GA. Everywhere else in the state busted severely.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you look at the loop from NOAA's water vapor satellite images, the heavy rain indicated by the dark reds and purples have disappeared over the last few hours. Looks almost like someone took a fire extinguisher to a fire... from my rescue squad training days. The fat lady may be warming up as far as any widespread heavy rain and storms our way (triad NC), just looking at that. I know that there are other dynamics at play but I was under the impression that all of that heavy rainfall was going to explode up into the Carolina's leading to our heavy flooding. I don't see that happening now based on this water vapor imagery. At the end of the loop it looks like something is driving the energy out into the gulf down the Florida coast rather than northward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will we see more tomorrow?

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-012100-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-458 PM EDT WED APR 30 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.   FLASH FLOOD WATCH..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILLBE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERNPIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In NC a lot of this system was a dud. The severe weather for the triangle and the rain for here in the mountains, Totaled an inch…..

 

Better than my 0.14" in the past 3 days.  CAD + major convection over the GOM = nada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The flooding has been historic here in Baldwin County, AL as well as the Pensacola area in the FL panhandle. The Fish River in SIlverhill,  AL (in Baldwin County) reached a record crest, surpassing the historic crest of Hurricane Danny in 1997 by 1 foot. Portions of many roads have been washed away or compromised with many homes inundated across the area. 

 

 

post-820-0-52261700-1398894447_thumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, 3 drops of rain imby.  Event of epic proportions I say!

 

The wind advisory we had only managed to knock one of my small bell pepper plants over (in a plastic pot).  ROFL.

You lost a pepper plant?  Did you give it a decent burial?  You said... a few words, right?

I love peppers.  Tell me you did "the right thing".

 

 

 

 

At the height of this storm, this morn - I found the ground "slightly moist".  I dreamed

of storms last night.  Like a Ray Bradbury short story... I was a little boy locked away

in a small room, and dismissed.  All the children of The Sandhill saw the rain.  I was tucked away,

distant from concern in the enthusiasm... forgotten.  Non-Existent.  I wept.

 

Perhaps one day - my posterity will not suffer the indifference and permanent scars that will haunt me

the rest of my mortal days.

 

"All I wanted to see... was a little rain.  The Sandhillers sucked it all up!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...