featherwx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks like the storms are staying just east of Hillsborough right now, bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks to me like the sun will be breaking through this ridiculous cloud deck very soon here. Skies have brightened up and cloud deck has risen substantially. The parameters are there if we can just add the sun thing will get interesting later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 New SPC out. Trimmed back the slight risk and probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 seeing these storms fire over the same area I'm beginning to be concerned about flash/urban flooding in the Triangle this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 New SPC out. Trimmed back the slight risk and probs. That disappoints me. Still hoping to see some good storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Check out the BufKit for GSO... Another stellar performance from the GFS. Storm total at KGSO is 0.26" and that's twice as much as I have imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Early convection on the SC coast appears to be disrupting the LLJ to 850 level flow. Surface chart looks good far eastern NC and extreme southeast VA. Jet stream level improving. However the 850, LLJ to surface forecast wind fields are a train wreck if you want severe. Models had been showing that issue and now we know why. Too many storms are in progress on the SC coast. Don't think it's the Gulf stuff. SC convection snagged the wind fields. Now if you are expecting flooding, the soundings are plenty juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 That disappoints me. Still hoping to see some good storms today. Yep. Looks like the marginal instability we got this morning combined with some old outflow boundaries to pop of a few thunderstorms already before the better upper-level dynamics got here. Turning into a heavy rain threat I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301633Z - 301800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE VA AND ERN NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES BUT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN SC...ERN NC INTO SE VA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT WAKEFIELD VA SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 1 KM AGL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 There is a tornado warning in southern VA, north of Roanoke Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1235 PM WEDNESDAY... UPDATE... A LARGE MULTICELL COMPLEX HAS FORMED FROM CHARLESTON NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC ALONG NUMEROUS MERGING BOUNDARIES. WHILE NOT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES MAY STILL SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE STORM CLUSTERS SUGGEST FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A BIGGER CONCERN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL JUST YESTERDAY. WILL BE MAKING SOME EDITS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN FOCUS. -SMITH THE WEDGE/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWEST AND IS JUST EAST IF THE TRIAD...PUTTING NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS. REGIONALLY...THERE IS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DESTABILIZATION ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AIDED BY RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB PER THE KGSO 12Z RAOB. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WITH A CORRIDOR OF 45-50KT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A 40KT 850MB FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. OUTSIDE OF THE RETREATING WEDGE FRONT...TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION ARE A LITTLE MORE NEBULOUS...BUT CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING OVER CENTRAL SC...WITH A REMNANT MCV OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. RAP VORT FORECASTS BRING THIS MCV OVER THE SANDHILLS IN THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY THE MOST OBVIOUS FEATURE UPSTREAM TO KEY ON...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GIVEN THAT THE TRIAD IS CLOSE TO BEING SCOURED OUT FO THE STABLE AIRMASS...WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 75-83 RANGE. WHILE RAINFALL HAS BEEN A LITTLE LACK LUSTER OVER THE PIEDMONT... STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD STILL SUPPORT TRAINING OF CELLS....AND AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WERE MORE THAN PRIMED WITH LAST EVENINGS RAINFALL. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Lots of trash out there going to make it hard for anything discrete to get going......maybe I should have stayed at work.....however its early still so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Anyone have an idea of what moved through SC west of Columbia a couple hours ago? There were many storm reports of non-Tstorm wind damage with a ~15min high wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Anyone have an idea of what moved through SC west of Columbia a couple hours ago? There were many storm reports of non-Tstorm wind damage with a ~15min high wind event. Gravity wave or wake low maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Outflow boundary? They had this advisory earlier... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC1118 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014SCZ020-021-026>028-301730-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...SALUDA...RIDGE SPRING...WEST COLUMBIA...CAYCE...LEXINGTON...RED BANK...COLUMBIA1118 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014...STRONG WIND APPROACHING THE LAKE MURRAY AREA...A BAND OF STRONG WIND MOVING FROM PARTS OF EDGEFIELD AND SALUDA COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO THE LAKE MURRAY AREA AROUND NOON.WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR.THIS WIND WILL DOWN SOME WEAKENED TREES. IT WILL LIKELY BECOMEVERY DANGEROUS ON LAKE MURRAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Hoping as these clusters move east they break up a bit and get more discrete..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Weird that this goes completely around Wake County. 116 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2014The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 121 ineffect until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following areasIn North Carolina this watch includes 8 countiesIn central North CarolinaEdgecombe Franklin Granville Halifax Nash Vance Warren Wilson This includes the cities of...Butner...Creedmoor...Franklinton...Henderson...Louisburg...Nashville...Norlina...Oxford...Red Oak...Roanoke Rapids...Rocky Mount...Sharpsburg...Spring Hope...Warrenton and Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Pretty good storm in Raleigh now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Oy vey it looks like it's going to be a steady rain for awhile. No good. The ground is definitely super saturated from yesterday, and ponding is already starting to take place on the roadways. I hope we don't get anymore colossal downpours. Pretty consistent rolling thunder and plenty of lightning. W Fay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 So much for the big hype of today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 So much for the big hype of today... Really, the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Really, the last two days. WAY overhyped in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Yeah, this is going to go down as a monster bust for the western areas for both severe and rain. It's amazing that technology and forecasting ability can still be so poor at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Yeah, this is going to go down as a monster bust for the western areas for both severe and rain. It's amazing that technology and forecasting ability can still be so poor at times. It's kind of a double-edged sword. I really don't want destructive tornadoes and storms. But if they are going to hype it like it was this past Sunday for today and yesterday, then if we don't get anything it will just make more people not pay attention the next time because they will think it's the boy crying wolf. But the forecast is usually a lot more accurate when it comes to severe weather around here compared to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Yeah, this is going to go down as a monster bust for the western areas for both severe and rain. It's amazing that technology and forecasting ability can still be so poor at times. No place in NC has been higher than a slight risk during the entire outbreak. This was never supposed to be a big outbreak like what happened in AR here. I think the SPC made that very clear even as early as late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 No place in NC has been higher than a slight risk during the entire outbreak. This was never supposed to be a big outbreak like what happened in AR here. I think the SPC made that very clear even as early as late last week. The local media has made a big deal out of it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 No place in NC has been higher than a slight risk during the entire outbreak. This was never supposed to be a big outbreak like what happened in AR here. I think the SPC made that very clear even as early as late last week. Nobody was calling for a big severe weather outbreak. That's very correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 It's kind of a double-edged sword. I really don't want destructive tornadoes and storms. But if they are going to hype it like it was this past Sunday for today and yesterday, then if we don't get anything it will just make more people not pay attention the next time because they will think it's the boy crying wolf. But the forecast is usually a lot more accurate when it comes to severe weather around here compared to snow. That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 The local media has made a big deal out of it, though. Don't they always? Would you watch them if they gave the same information as the SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Don't they always? Would you watch them if they gave the same information as the SPC? Oh, I know better, but most folks don't follow the weather like people on here. I just worry about the next time when they hype it and people don't listen, and it ends up being really bad. Yesterday was pretty bad around Fayetteville, but if anyone was listening to the local media Sunday it sounded like most of NC would see a bad outbreak yesterday and today. It was pretty hyped here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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