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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

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wx n of atl, on 30 Apr 2014 - 09:47 AM, said:wx n of atl, on 30 Apr 2014 - 09:47 AM, said:wx n of atl, on 30 Apr 2014 - 09:47 AM, said:

Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain..  

When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours?  

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

Has the option for as many as 200 frames. Just click 'NEXRAD sites' on the far left toolbar.

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Sun is breaking through here in Cary in the last few minutes.

 

 

If we could get some decent sun and if the convective complex around the Gulf/FL doesn't appreciably screw up our moisture transport, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a Moderate risk come out later.

 

 

I don't think it will take much sun to get things going, either.

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Gotta decide if I am going to burn a half day vacation to chase this afternoon. Pretty sure if I do it nothing will fire up close and if I stay we will be hammered like yesterday. So should I stay or should I go....

 

I'm gonna pick you up at your house at 1!!!!

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How does the sun factor into the equation and can I ask this here?  Or if this has been discussed please give me the links. Thanks!

The more sunshine, the more destabilized the atmosphere becomes, which allows for stronger/more severe storms to develop. That's the short answer. 

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How does the sun factor into the equation and can I ask this here?  Or if this has been discussed please give me the links. Thanks!

 

More sun = more instability is the easy definition. There's many exceptions and other factors, but in this case the sun is not your friend if you're not wanting severe.

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GSP Update...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SERIOUS CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN GIVEN TO DROPPINGPARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SLOWMOVING CONVECTION IS TRAINING AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLDFRONT FROM KNOXVILLE TO CHATTANOOGA. VARIOUS MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWSOME DEGREE OF PRE/FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT FROM NE GA TO THE FOOTHILLSAND ALSO NEAR KCLT THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH THIS ISQUITE LOW CONFIDENCE. FEEL THAT THE HIGHEST HYDRO THREAT GOINGFORWARD WILL BE CLT METRO AND THE SW MTNS...BUT WILL KEEP THE WATCHGOING THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LINE.THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSSMOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEBRISCLOUDINESS FROM FL GULF COAST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GREATLYINHIBIT INSTABILITY BOTH OVER OUR AREA AND IN UPSTREAM AREAS ACROSSCENTRAL AND NRN GA. THERE IS SOME HINT AT WARMING CLOUDS OVERGA...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED EVEN A FEW BREAKS OVERNW GA. THE BEST COMBINATION OF LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAYIMPACT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST...BUT A SOLID 40TO 45 KT OF SFC TO 3 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REQUIRE AN HWO SEVEREMENTION THROUGHOUT.
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Maybe I should go wash my car  :P   I did get a wind advisory  :lol:  

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MESO
HIGH IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY DOWN WEAKENED TREES.

RADAR TRENDS AND THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CONVERGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
EAST PART PLUS HIGH SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH HELPING TO
PREVENT THE TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAY
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THIS THREAT
.

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More sun = more instability is the easy definition. There's many exceptions and other factors, but in this case the sun is not your friend if you're not wanting severe.

 

The more sunshine, the more destabilized the atmosphere becomes, which allows for stronger/more severe storms to develop. That's the short answer. 

 

 

Great thanks, it does

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