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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

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Early sat loop and a quick peek out the door suggest that at least most of southern central NC and eastern NC will see some sun this morning if cape can get 2000+ by lunchtime then another big day should be on tap for those areas especially with the stronger mid level flow from the SW.

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I have to say for ne ga, at least, I would gave to call this an "epic" bust. One of the worst for any season. All the hype and forecasts and flood watched out since MON for 80-100% chance of heavy rain severe storms flooding etc with 4-5 or 6 inches by now are a complete flop. Three days of a flood watch. What has verified? Maybe .25 rain total. Not one flash of lightning one clap of thunder or one gust of wind. People around here were already talking about it and laughing yesterday. Can't wait to hear what the word is today lol

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Darn gulf robbing moisture.......sigh :(

 

GSP like your line of thinking!

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 730 AM EDT...WILL HAVE TO GIVE SERIOUS THOUGHT TO ENDING THE

FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT TODAY...POSSIBLY THIS MORNING.

CLEARLY...THE ERN GULF COAST CONVECTION HAS HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON

BOTH QPF AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA. WE FEEL THE

IMPACT HAS BEEN TWOFOLD. FIRST...MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF

MEXICO HAS BEEN SEVERELY HAMPERED. SECOND...AND PERHAPS THIS IS LESS

WELL DOCUMENTED...THE CONSTANT BLOW OFF CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE

CONVECTION HAS HAD A STABILIZING AFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE

FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE...SO WILL ONLY

END THE WATCH WHEN A BETTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPS AMONG THE CONVECTION

ALLOWING MODELS THAT FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN

STEM RIVERS NOW APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE AND FORECAST CRESTS WILL BE

LOWERED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST.

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Wakefield says "Don't cancel just yet"

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SENT UPDATE TO GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ANDEXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HRS...MAINLY TO LOWER POPSSIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS ACRS FAR SE VAAND NE NC (WHERE LITTLE TO NOTHING IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW)...EVENAS CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS MAY BE LINKEDTO LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDAPOTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF DEEPER CONVECTION RIDING NNE UP THE ATLCCOAST. HOWEVER...THIS BLOB OF MOISTURE IN FL IS NOT RACING OFF TOTHE EAST...BUT IS INSTEAD MOVING VERY SLOWLY...WHICH SUGGESTS THATIT MAY ONLY ROB THE MID ATLC OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEWHRS...BUT NOT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (I.E. VERY HEAVY RAINSTILL POSSIBLE/LIKELY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT). THUS...MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO AFTN/EVENING FORECAST FOR NOW.
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Early sat loop and a quick peek out the door suggest that at least most of southern central NC and eastern NC will see some sun this morning if cape can get 2000+ by lunchtime then another big day should be on tap for those areas especially with the stronger mid level flow from the SW.

 

 

It's very overcast here this morning, just like all day yesterday. But it definietly feels different outside today. A lot warmer and muggier.

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Latest convective outlook...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0736 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION LATER TODAY.   POTENTIAL FOCI FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE THE WARM   FRONT...TERRAIN...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DEEP-LAYER   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET   STREAK PROGRESSING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AN ADDITIONAL   CLUSTER OR BAND OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS   AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG   THE COLD FRONT.   THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E.   EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-350 M2 PER S2 AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK   SHEAR/ WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY   EVENING WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS NOTION IS GENERALLY   SUPPORTED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH INDICATE A   MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINES AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE   PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
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I have to say for ne ga, at least, I would gave to call this an "epic" bust. One of the worst for any season. All the hype and forecasts and flood watched out since MON for 80-100% chance of heavy rain severe storms flooding etc with 4-5 or 6 inches by now are a complete flop. Three days of a flood watch. What has verified? Maybe .25 rain total. Not one flash of lightning one clap of thunder or one gust of wind. People around here were already talking about it and laughing yesterday. Can't wait to hear what the word is today lol

 

Yep.  Very much a bust.  A lot like quite a few of the storms over the winter here - places west, north, and northeast get it, but it sort of hop skips over NGA and western SC.  Dunno.  I didn't expect the tornado threat to really make it here, because most of the time they die at the 'bama/GA border, but the utter lack of rain is disappointing.

 

I was hoping for a couple of inches rain at least (of the predicted 5") because spring, and, yard.

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Both the 06Z and 13Z SPC outlooks should be read. The 13Z tone is a little more bullish, perhaps appropriately so, but I like keeping it slight. The 06Z discusses in more detail the impacts of the Gulf MCS. It protected the Tennessee Valley yesterday, but today is a new day. We will learn a lot when the 12Z soundings become available. Carolinas/SE Virginia have an excellent sfc/very low level regime; the jet stream will be strengthening from the WSW (vs SSW); and, vapor shows a distinct short-wave approaching from Louisiana and Mississippi (timed for late afternoon Carolinas). Main huge question is the sounding upstream of that LLJ. I will post on the Main Forum pinned thread after those soundings come out.

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I know this much, the cool wedge has been locked in for 2 days now over the western piedmont and foothills.  54 deg and fully saturated in Hickory at 9AM.  No end in site to the clouds streaming in overhead on the visible satellite loop.

 

Yes, a lot like this winter was here.  Very hard for the wedge to break down.  My temp here the past two days has ranged from 51-54 the whole time, and when it's not been raining its been a constant fog/mist. 

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Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain..  

When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours?  

You can also see archived radar data here - http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=60&year=2014&month=4&day=29&hour=8&minute=0

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