Witness Protection Program Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 live stream for the devastating Pensacola flooding: http://www.weartv.com/news/features/live-news/ Go to Google Map's traffic and you'll see I-10 is shut down in both directions well beyond Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just looking at modeling. haha.. a squall line for most of SC. Lame to track. Once again, even the modeling has it as "scattered" thunderstorms. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 2 persons drowned in their car on Hwy 29 in Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just woke up to the weather alarm going off, tornado warning for just east of Hillsborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Downtown Durham is going to be right under the gun from this cell, looks like it's definitely rotating although thankfully there's no confirmed TOG yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Storms are riding the wedge again. It's moved West overnight. A little while ago, it was 61 in Chapel Hill and 72 at RDU, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Early sat loop and a quick peek out the door suggest that at least most of southern central NC and eastern NC will see some sun this morning if cape can get 2000+ by lunchtime then another big day should be on tap for those areas especially with the stronger mid level flow from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Panama City getting pounded now. METAR KECP 300953Z AUTO 09010KT 1 1/4SM VCTS +RA BR 19/18 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS SLP143 P0242 T01940183 $ SPECI KECP 301012Z AUTO 10010KT 1SM +TSRA BR BKN019 OVC049 19/18 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0057 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Several reports of damage this morning suggest that several of the tornados suspected in Wilson and Edgecombe counties did touch down but it does seem they were short lived.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Pensacola, FL - via Spann on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 0.52". No tornado here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 06Z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Darn gulf robbing moisture.......sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 good chunk of NC is going to see some sunshine, cape is already climbing, should be a very active day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I have to say for ne ga, at least, I would gave to call this an "epic" bust. One of the worst for any season. All the hype and forecasts and flood watched out since MON for 80-100% chance of heavy rain severe storms flooding etc with 4-5 or 6 inches by now are a complete flop. Three days of a flood watch. What has verified? Maybe .25 rain total. Not one flash of lightning one clap of thunder or one gust of wind. People around here were already talking about it and laughing yesterday. Can't wait to hear what the word is today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Darn gulf robbing moisture.......sigh GSP like your line of thinking! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM EDT...WILL HAVE TO GIVE SERIOUS THOUGHT TO ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT SOME POINT TODAY...POSSIBLY THIS MORNING. CLEARLY...THE ERN GULF COAST CONVECTION HAS HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON BOTH QPF AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OUR AREA. WE FEEL THE IMPACT HAS BEEN TWOFOLD. FIRST...MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN SEVERELY HAMPERED. SECOND...AND PERHAPS THIS IS LESS WELL DOCUMENTED...THE CONSTANT BLOW OFF CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE CONVECTION HAS HAD A STABILIZING AFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE...SO WILL ONLY END THE WATCH WHEN A BETTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPS AMONG THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS THAT FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN STEM RIVERS NOW APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE AND FORECAST CRESTS WILL BE LOWERED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Wakefield says "Don't cancel just yet" .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SENT UPDATE TO GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ANDEXPECTED TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HRS...MAINLY TO LOWER POPSSIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS ACRS FAR SE VAAND NE NC (WHERE LITTLE TO NOTHING IS OCCURRING RIGHT NOW)...EVENAS CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS MAY BE LINKEDTO LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDAPOTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF DEEPER CONVECTION RIDING NNE UP THE ATLCCOAST. HOWEVER...THIS BLOB OF MOISTURE IN FL IS NOT RACING OFF TOTHE EAST...BUT IS INSTEAD MOVING VERY SLOWLY...WHICH SUGGESTS THATIT MAY ONLY ROB THE MID ATLC OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEWHRS...BUT NOT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT (I.E. VERY HEAVY RAINSTILL POSSIBLE/LIKELY OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT). THUS...MADE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO AFTN/EVENING FORECAST FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Early sat loop and a quick peek out the door suggest that at least most of southern central NC and eastern NC will see some sun this morning if cape can get 2000+ by lunchtime then another big day should be on tap for those areas especially with the stronger mid level flow from the SW. It's very overcast here this morning, just like all day yesterday. But it definietly feels different outside today. A lot warmer and muggier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Latest convective outlook... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014 LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL FOCI FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE THE WARM FRONT...TERRAIN...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OR BAND OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-350 M2 PER S2 AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ WILL RESIDE OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS NOTION IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY A NUMBER OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH INDICATE A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINES AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I have to say for ne ga, at least, I would gave to call this an "epic" bust. One of the worst for any season. All the hype and forecasts and flood watched out since MON for 80-100% chance of heavy rain severe storms flooding etc with 4-5 or 6 inches by now are a complete flop. Three days of a flood watch. What has verified? Maybe .25 rain total. Not one flash of lightning one clap of thunder or one gust of wind. People around here were already talking about it and laughing yesterday. Can't wait to hear what the word is today lol Yep. Very much a bust. A lot like quite a few of the storms over the winter here - places west, north, and northeast get it, but it sort of hop skips over NGA and western SC. Dunno. I didn't expect the tornado threat to really make it here, because most of the time they die at the 'bama/GA border, but the utter lack of rain is disappointing. I was hoping for a couple of inches rain at least (of the predicted 5") because spring, and, yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Cell SW of Richmond gathering steam. Is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 the low clouds are finally starting to break here at the coast... sun is peeking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Still waiting to clear out here. Hi-Res models show we should begin to warm around noon, give or take an hour, up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Both the 06Z and 13Z SPC outlooks should be read. The 13Z tone is a little more bullish, perhaps appropriately so, but I like keeping it slight. The 06Z discusses in more detail the impacts of the Gulf MCS. It protected the Tennessee Valley yesterday, but today is a new day. We will learn a lot when the 12Z soundings become available. Carolinas/SE Virginia have an excellent sfc/very low level regime; the jet stream will be strengthening from the WSW (vs SSW); and, vapor shows a distinct short-wave approaching from Louisiana and Mississippi (timed for late afternoon Carolinas). Main huge question is the sounding upstream of that LLJ. I will post on the Main Forum pinned thread after those soundings come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain.. When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I know this much, the cool wedge has been locked in for 2 days now over the western piedmont and foothills. 54 deg and fully saturated in Hickory at 9AM. No end in site to the clouds streaming in overhead on the visible satellite loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I know this much, the cool wedge has been locked in for 2 days now over the western piedmont and foothills. 54 deg and fully saturated in Hickory at 9AM. No end in site to the clouds streaming in overhead on the visible satellite loop. Yes, a lot like this winter was here. Very hard for the wedge to break down. My temp here the past two days has ranged from 51-54 the whole time, and when it's not been raining its been a constant fog/mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain.. When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours? Wunderground has this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Wunderground has this feature. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just looked at radar, South Georgia really getting hit with a rain.. When this is all done, it might be interesting to replay the radar from the past several days if that is possible. Can "radar playback" go back more than 24 hours? You can also see archived radar data here - http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=70&interval=60&year=2014&month=4&day=29&hour=8&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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