Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Won't last long. It's a miserable, puny little excuse for a thunderstorm. Atmosphere is going to be different tomorrow,though. We'll have more juice for severe weather here and throughout NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Farmville is flooding as well they have had to water rescue 10+ people and some roads have 4-5 ft of water on them.......some parts of Pitt Co showing 6"+ rain in the last few hrs.......the couplet still looks decent and its in a good spot to be able to maintain nothing to impede the inflow like the previous rotations but it should stay south of Greenville proper. Looks like if it stays together it will head for Washington. The last thing those people need is another tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Looks like tomorrow will be my best chance to see some thunderboomers .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLDFRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREAWEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAMSHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATEA 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITHTHE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATESSURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEINSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHPRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN. THENAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WEHAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Couplet weakened a lot so they will most likely let the warning expire and then 15 mins from now they will reissue when it gets tight again lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Ayden better duck and cover. Just put the inlaws on notice AGAIN in Washington. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Wilson about to get dumped on again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Hey Buckeye, how are ya? Don't know if you read the latest spc day two... "LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...ALONG THE SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 That storm headed for washington went from tornado warned to nothing in about 20 miles and 20-30 minutes. Had 1.25" hail at one point too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 WOW corner of Skibo/Raeford Roads in Fayetteville Nice shot! Were you wading in water when you took that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 That storm headed for washington went from tornado warned to nothing in about 20 miles and 20-30 minutes. Had 1.25" hail at one point too! Yeah kinda surprised me thought it had a chance to maintain, the real question is tomorrow the SPC seems to think less tornado chances up here in NC, but yesterday Wed was what looked to be the big day for us. I guess I will see in the morning how it looks as far as left over showers and debris clouds etc......I got the option for a half day at work to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Hey Buckeye, how are ya? Don't know if you read the latest spc day two... "LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...ALONG THE SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE." Thanks for posting that Tomorrow could be interesting if it all comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I don't think these are done cycling yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Not much in the way of wind but the CTG lightning and small hail are pretty intense with this cell, full on shaking the house thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Thanks for posting that Tomorrow could be interesting if it all comes together Indeed. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. If we can manage to get a few hours of good sun before noon, chances are good to see several descrete cells develop from the Midlands-East ahead of any QLCS feature that may form as the the front approaches from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Starting to get concerned about that cell SW of Chapel Hill.. Has the same look to the Vann Crossroads tornado today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Holy cow am I seeing this right? Almost every cell just caught some sort of rotation along that boundary. Maybe I need to go to bed... I am seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Holy cow am I seeing this right? Almost every cell just caught some sort of rotation along that boundary. Maybe I need to go to bed... I am seeing things. Yeah lol everything wants to spin luckily the setup really isn't that great overall to produce anything more than weaker spin ups, tomorrow with the stronger SW flow could be a different story, and the Pitt Co cell is trying to couplet again as it heads right for Washington......I see Jaydog in here would have been nice to have had you back at WITN the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldamon Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Starting to get concerned about that cell SW of Chapel Hill.. Has the same look to the Vann Crossroads tornado today. Getting my attention in Durham for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 North of Zebulon looking hooky....off to bed for me could be a long day tomorrow doing more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Fayetteville could be in for round 2 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 North of Zebulon looking hooky.... Yeah everything starting to look ominous now. Guess I will stay up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Things looking dangerous for the Durham area. Also Franklin Co. looks to have a nice hook and I really wouldn't want to be in Rocky Mount right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Edit: Never mind, I think my app was messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 I thought this was DOA for the Triangle but things are getting interesting now. And this was all without having any sun all day. I think tomorrow might be even worse wit it being warmer. But looks like we have to get trough tonight first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Nick Wiltgen @WxNick 41m Oh my. 5.24" rain in 45 min at Pensacola airport… highest rain total I've ever seen in a METAR in less than 1 hr in my 16-yr career #flood I guess this would go here in this thread? If i am wrong, feel free to move it to the right thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Just tweeted out something similar: METAR KPNS 300253Z 11007KT 1 3/4SM R17/5000VP6000FT +TSRA BR FEW007 OVC014 21/19 A2979 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS SLP090 P0568 60718 T02060194 51006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 Best looking cell now is north of Rocky Mount but things seem to be settling down, thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 What severe weather haven't seen a drop of rain here yet.. sun was out all day to... Instead of the boy crying wolf the weather models are starting to....I just don't see much moisture getting here like today convection robbed us in the gulf...maybe Georgia and south Carolina will get some but like noaa said in their discussion... not expecting much severe weather in nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 That line sure isn't propagating eastward very quickly. With low level flow nearly parallel with the boundary and over 2" of PWs to work with, that's a rainfall machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 30, 2014 Share Posted April 30, 2014 According to NWS chat PNS now well over 11" total. Training continuing. Reports of cars floating down the street, water 4-5' in houses. Most roads including I-10 closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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