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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

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Farmville is flooding as well they have had to water rescue 10+ people and some roads have 4-5 ft of water on them.......some parts of Pitt Co showing 6"+ rain in the last few hrs.......the couplet still looks decent and its in a good spot to be able to maintain nothing to impede the inflow like the previous rotations but it should stay south of Greenville proper.

 

 

Looks like if it stays together it will head for Washington.  The last thing those people need is another tornado.

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Looks like tomorrow will be my best chance to see some thunderboomers  ^_^

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME DEEP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 OF AN INCH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. THE MODELS INDICATE
A 40-KNOT H85 JET. THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT SUPPORT LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS. THE NAM INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -5 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUPPORT POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN.
THE
NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN ARE ALL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO WE
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

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Hey Buckeye, how are ya? Don't know if you read the latest spc day two...

"LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY

CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER

DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN

FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST

DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000

J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP

ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS

THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...ALONG THE

SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE

NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES

WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE

ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS

EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF

40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL

LINE."

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That storm headed for washington went from tornado warned to nothing in about 20 miles and 20-30 minutes. Had 1.25" hail at one point too!

 

Yeah kinda surprised me thought it had a chance to maintain, the real question is tomorrow the SPC seems to think less tornado chances up here in NC, but yesterday Wed was what looked to be the big day for us. I guess I will see in the morning how it looks as far as left over showers and debris clouds etc......I got the option for a half day at work to chase.

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Hey Buckeye, how are ya? Don't know if you read the latest spc day two...

"LATEST THINKING IS LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTI-DAY

CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER

DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED FROM NRN

FL INTO COASTAL SC. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST

DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED 2000

J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY FAVOR ORGANIZED DEEP

ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MULTI STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS

THIS REGION. SQUALL LINE MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP...ALONG THE

SFC FRONT EARLY. GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE

NOTED ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES

WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DO EVOLVE

ACROSS THIS REGION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ENHANCED RISK FOR

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. 20Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR AGS

EXHIBITS 2200 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF

40KT. IF THIS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THEN

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE MORE COMMON WITH ORGANIZED SQUALL

LINE."

Thanks for posting that   :)    Tomorrow could be interesting if it all comes together   ;)

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Thanks for posting that   :)    Tomorrow could be interesting if it all comes together   ;)

 

Indeed.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. If we can manage to get a few hours of good sun before noon, chances are good to see several descrete cells develop from the Midlands-East ahead of any QLCS feature that may form as the the front approaches from the west.

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Holy cow am I seeing this right?  Almost every cell just caught some sort of rotation along that boundary.  Maybe I need to go to bed... I am seeing things.

 

Yeah lol everything wants to spin luckily the setup really isn't that great overall to produce anything more than weaker spin ups, tomorrow with the stronger SW flow could be a different story, and the Pitt Co cell is trying to couplet again as it heads right for Washington......I see Jaydog in here would have been nice to have had you back at WITN the last couple of days.

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What severe weather haven't seen a drop of rain here yet.. sun was out all day to... Instead of the boy crying wolf the weather models are starting to....I just don't see much moisture getting here like today convection robbed us in the gulf...maybe Georgia and south Carolina will get some but like noaa said in their discussion... not expecting much severe weather in nc

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