mackerel_sky Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 All signs point to a multi-day severe threat and flood potential for alot of GA and the Carolinas! On top of the severe threat, there is also potential for flooding due to the heavy rains and duration of event. Thought it should have it's own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 All signs point to a multi-day severe threat and flood potential for alot of GA and the Carolinas! On top of the severe threat, there is also potential for flooding due to the heavy rains and duration of event. Thought it should have it's own thread. Totally agree! I say bring it. It looks like discrete supercells will be a possibility as early as tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Someone in the GSP cwa will have an enhanced thread of tornados from tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning with the enhanced shear associated with the CAD boundary. This could change of course, but I'm thinking this will involve both the GSP and Charlotte metro areas. if this does change, I think it'll be to the south putting Anderson and Greenwood in the highest risk area. All of GA stays in the warm sector throughout the event until frontal passage from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Local ch 4 met seemed to really be downplaying the severe threat! He barely mentioned it , and says the threat will be mainly to our west. He did seem very concerned about flooding, saying 6+ inch rain / event totals will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Local ch 4 met seemed to really be downplaying the severe threat! He barely mentioned it , and says the threat will be mainly to our west. He did seem very concerned about flooding, saying 6+ inch rain / event totals will be possible. ANY Rain will be greatly appreciated! Did the yard today.. weedin', feedin', yankin', cussin'... throwin'. The yard was dryer than the Wicked Witch of the West - she's like 135 years old. I've sneezed 35 times today. We'd better get some rain! We just... better!! -Playin' with Karma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 18z GFS wants to dump 5.08" on us down here next to KJNX in Clayton via MeteoStar. Going to get soggy somewhere, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 http://wxbrad.com/3-rounds-of-severe-weather-this-week/?utm_content=buffer28662&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer From Brad p blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 After being quiet all month it looks like April is going out with a bang. Lots of tornadoes today. The system is going to be in NC tomorrow and we could have severe threats through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Hope folks are paying attention to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 WRAL saying storms in NC tomorrow are very very very unlikely to be like the ones today because NC is only in an elevated risk tomorrow for severe weather. NC was only under an elevated risk to begin with this past Friday and we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Not expecting much in eastern nc.. maybe Greenville because they get all the storms and rain it seems but Se nc seems to have a boundary set up when the storms and rain get here because they move all around me... and got to see what moisture is able to make it here and not get robbed from the convection in the gulf states... I will be surprised if we get a 2 inch plus rain fall in my neck of the woods with out a coastal or tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Great so I'm up all night worrying about my mama in Arkansas and now have to worry about my damn self here from the same system. Yay weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 This Spring is feeling like an exact carbon copy of last Spring, which in a way is a good thing. Anything to keep the pollen down is fine with me. Were under a Flood Watch from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and after seeing some of the QPF maps I can see why. I'm gonna need to rent a boat to get around this week. NWS is calling for 2-4 inches with isolated spots seeing 5 or more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Not liking this at all. Not a fan of nighttime severe weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESTORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTSAND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARSGREATEST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAYEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Agree. Not being able to see something coming is disconcerting. I suspect my weather alert radio will be going off all night Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Not liking this at all. Not a fan of nighttime severe weather. I hope people will keep a close watch on this. We might have some sleepless nights Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I hope people will keep a close watch on this. We might have some sleepless nights Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying up all night, watching storms roll in, is not my idea of fun. The after-dark threat could catch many off-guard. Even though it doesn't look to be too bad here in the foothills, I will be keeping my weather radio by the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Relative Humidity up to 78% in mby this am. Man it is muggy out there. It should be an interesting day to track super cells on the main board. Asheville will most likely get in on some nice rain and boomers today. I think tomorrow will be the most active day as far as super cells for the area's that most of use post from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Updated AFD from Raleigh... THELATEST RAP RUNS SHOW AN INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE NOSING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BYMIDDAY...WITH DESTABILIZATION TO THE EAST CROSS THE SANDHILLS ANDSOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH TIME. THE SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITHSATELLITE TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER60S....SO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 64 LOOK TO MOST FAVORABLE FORCONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TO THENORTH...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 30KT WHICH COULD SUPPORTSOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A GENERAL MOTION FROM WEST TO EAST.THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH STORMSFARTHER NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY ANDBACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER SHEAR AND HAVE A BETTERCHANCE OF ROTATING. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ISCONDITIONED UPON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLYSCATTERED IN NATURE. -SMITH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Crazy temp contrast across NC right now, hopefully we can get storms to fire, currently full sun here in Jville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Crazy temp contrast across NC right now, hopefully we can get storms to fire, currently full sun here in Jville I guess that is why RAH said areas south of 64 would see the biggest threat today. It's been cloudy and cool all day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Check out the BufKit for GSO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0454.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0115 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CAROLINAS AWAY FROM MTNS. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281815Z - 282015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN...PERHAPS INCLUDING A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES...OFFERING DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT IS VERY LOW/CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND EROSION OF OLD DAMMING REGIME -- ACROSS SRN NC BETWEEN HKY-CLT THEN EWD TOWARD SRN OUTER BANKS AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NC THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN. MEANWHILE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...WITHIN ABOUT 20 NM OF COAST IN MOST AREAS -- WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY. WARM-SECTOR INITIATION ALSO HAS BEGUN OVER PORTIONS ERN SC AND SRN NC...ALONG A FEW OUT OF MANY SSW-NNE-ORIENTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL HCR-RELATED TSTM GENESIS ALSO IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING ESSENTIALLY ZERO MLCINH NOW EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH 25-35 KT VALUES SUGGESTING DOMINANT MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE...ALTHOUGH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INVOF WARM FRONT. ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014 ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Yes I think We may need rain Here in ILM still... May get alil seabreeze activity today, though more likely tomorrow Heat Index 75 °F Dew Point 76 °F Humidity 100% Rainfall -999.00 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Cumberland County under a svr tstorm warning. Nice little baby cell right to my west, it is getting dark and starting to thunder. GR says 1.25" hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 WRAL Mike Maze 2 mins · Storms firing up around Fayetteville with signs of hail and rotation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I did think I saw a slight sign of rotation. I am new to this. What do you veterans say? Am I seeing it correctly? I didnt want to seem dramatic but now I am seeing others say it too. That X i marked is pretty miuch my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Large hail. quarter sized at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt4pack Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I guess no one cares a large tornado is on the ground in Miss. right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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