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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential


mackerel_sky

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All signs point to a multi-day severe threat and flood potential for alot of GA and the Carolinas! On top of the severe threat, there is also potential for flooding due to the heavy rains and duration of event. Thought it should have it's own thread.

Totally agree! I say bring it. It looks like discrete supercells will be a possibility as early as tomorrow.

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Someone in the GSP cwa will have an enhanced thread of tornados from tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning with the enhanced shear associated with the CAD boundary. This could change of course,  but I'm thinking this will involve both the GSP and Charlotte metro areas. if this does change, I think it'll be to the south putting Anderson and Greenwood in the highest risk area. All of GA stays in the warm sector throughout the event until frontal passage from the west.

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Local ch 4 met seemed to really be downplaying the severe threat! He barely mentioned it , and says the threat will be mainly to our west. He did seem very concerned about flooding, saying 6+ inch rain / event totals will be possible.

ANY Rain will be greatly appreciated!

 

Did the yard today.. weedin', feedin', yankin', cussin'... throwin'.  

The yard was dryer than the Wicked Witch of the West - she's like 135 years old.

I've sneezed 35 times today. 

 

We'd better get some rain!  We just... better!!  

 

 

 

-Playin' with Karma.

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Not expecting much in eastern nc.. maybe Greenville because they get all the storms and rain it seems but Se nc seems to have a boundary set up when the storms and rain get here because they move all around me... and got to see what moisture is able to make it here and not get robbed from the convection in the gulf states... I will be surprised if we get a 2 inch plus rain fall in my neck of the woods with out a coastal or tropical storm

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This Spring is feeling like an exact carbon copy of last Spring, which in a way is a good thing. Anything to keep the pollen down is fine with me.

 

Were under a Flood Watch from Tuesday until Wednesday evening and after seeing some of the QPF maps I can see why. I'm gonna need to rent a boat to get around this week. NWS is calling for 2-4 inches with isolated spots seeing 5 or more inches.

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Not liking this at all. Not a fan of nighttime severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESTORMS WILL BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTSAND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARSGREATEST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAYEVENING.
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I hope people will keep a close watch on this. We might have some sleepless nights Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Staying up all night, watching storms roll in, is not my idea of fun. The after-dark threat could catch many off-guard. Even though it doesn't look to be too bad here in the foothills, I will be keeping my weather radio by the bed.

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Relative Humidity up to 78% in mby this am.  Man it is muggy out there.  It should be an interesting day to track super cells on the main board.  Asheville will most likely get in on some nice rain and boomers today.  I think tomorrow will be the most active day as far as super cells for the area's that most of use post from.

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Updated AFD from Raleigh...

 

THE
LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW AN INSTABILITY AXIS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE NOSING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY
MIDDAY...WITH DESTABILIZATION TO THE EAST CROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH TIME. THE SEEMS TO MESH WELL WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS AND DEWPOINTS RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S....SO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 64 LOOK TO MOST FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TO THE
NORTH...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 30KT WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A GENERAL MOTION FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER SHEAR AND HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF ROTATING. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
CONDITIONED UPON DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. -SMITH

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0454.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0115 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CAROLINAS AWAY FROM MTNS.   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 281815Z - 282015Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN...PERHAPS INCLUDING A FEW   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES...OFFERING DAMAGING GUSTS   AND SPORADIC HAIL.  TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT IS VERY   LOW/CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING   NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND EROSION OF OLD DAMMING REGIME --   ACROSS SRN NC BETWEEN HKY-CLT THEN EWD TOWARD SRN OUTER BANKS AREA.    THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NC THROUGH   REMAINDER AFTN.  MEANWHILE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...WITHIN ABOUT 20 NM OF   COAST IN MOST AREAS -- WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND.  THESE BOUNDARIES   WILL BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH RELATIVELY   MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY.  WARM-SECTOR INITIATION ALSO HAS   BEGUN OVER PORTIONS ERN SC AND SRN NC...ALONG A FEW OUT OF MANY   SSW-NNE-ORIENTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY.    ADDITIONAL HCR-RELATED TSTM GENESIS ALSO IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING   ESSENTIALLY ZERO MLCINH NOW EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST   SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.    EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH   25-35 KT VALUES SUGGESTING DOMINANT MULTICELLULAR STORM   MODE...ALTHOUGH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY   INVOF WARM FRONT.   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
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