IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Toss the 18z NAM, it's an erratic run and doesn't match up well with rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Toss the 18z NAM, it's an erratic run and doesn't match up well with rest of the guidance. Gotta love the NAM! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Gotta love the NAM! LOL The 4k NAM is a lot closer to reality of what will likely occur. It looks too amped up and not progressive enough with the storm. It almost wants to rain into Thursday evening which no other model is currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I know that initial band of rain is forecasted to dry up but it seems to be making good NE progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 took a look at the 0 & 6 Z NAM/GFS. QPF looks to be around 1.5 - 2.5 inches of rain. More to the sw, less east. Both models have the golden umbrella award in central PA to down near Philly. Hoping Friday it clears out. Thursday seems up in the air at this point with rain or sun. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 The forecast soundings have a strong elevated convection signal Wednesday night which will enhance the heavy rainfall and flood potential. 6z Wednesday EWR 700-500 lapse rate: 6.51 C/km Showalter Index: -1.24 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable Total Totals Index: 49.75 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 00z ECMWF precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 00z GGEM 06z NAM 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Steady rain is into Harrisburg now. Based off of current radar and movement we should be raining by late afternoon in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 2" - 4" of rain look likely for most of us. GFS and ECMWF still show a 50kt+ LLJ and 1.50" Pwats, with the warm front Wednesday night. We also get into the warm sector on Thursday. Temps rising into lower to middle 70s away from the shore, with some sunshine and SW winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 2" - 4" of rain look likely for most of us. GFS and ECMWF still show a 50kt+ LLJ and 1.50" Pwats, with the warm front Wednesday night. We also get into the warm sector on Thursday. Temps rising into lower to middle 70s away from the shore, with some sunshine and SW winds: Yeah if someone doesn't see at least 2" of rain it will be an isolated occurrence. Best chance of that happening is out on Long Island or in Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The NAM has been terribly inconsistent with this storm. The 12z NAM is insisting that no rain will have fallen east of KMMU by 9pm tonight. All you have to do is look at the radar to see it's out to lunch. Even the 06z GFS has >0.10" already in the bucket by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Pretty cool to check out the radar loop and see the onshore flow coming in off the ocean as well as the SW flow advection coming from the southwest. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Nam is quite dry thru tonight..just a.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 NAM thru 8:00pm Wednesday is like 0.5" at Islip, 0.85-0.90" NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Nam is quite dry thru tonight..just a.1" We'll have to watch the radar later to see if the rain progresses east or if it stalls over PA. The NAM and other high-res models really don't have much rain until the front arrives Wednesday night and makes it a quick burst of rain and an inch or so for the city and east. Much of the heavy, training stuff is well west of the city. I still think that's a possibility-let's see how the other models come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Nam is quite dry thru tonight..just a.1" The NAM has been terribly inconsistent. Its 4k version at 12z yesterday had pouring rain and thunderstorms by noon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 4k NAM valid 4PM today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 At midnight tomorrow night the 12z NAM still has the 500mb jet maxima over West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The 12z 4k NAM basically unloads on us. Widespread 3-5" of rain for all areas with training of cells over NNJ tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 radar doesnt look that impressive-first batch looks to miss mostly to the n and west of NYC... Heaviest part of this looks to be tomorrow PM/night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 radar doesnt look that impressive-first batch looks to miss mostly to the n and west of NYC... Heaviest part of this looks to be tomorrow PM/night? Everything is right on schedule. NYC and points east get into it tomorrow morning. Very well modeled thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The RAP has moderate to heavier rain getting into the NYC area around 5am tmrw Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 radar doesnt look that impressive-first batch looks to miss mostly to the n and west of NYC... Heaviest part of this looks to be tomorrow PM/night? A lot of the stuff before tomorrow noon looks to be showery for the most part for the city and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 The RAP has moderate to heavier rain getting into the NYC area around 5am tmrw Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 12Z GGEM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 12Z GGEM totals Yeah I think no matter how you cut it, this is a 2.5" to 5" widespread rainfall across much of our area. For most, I'm thinking 3.5" to 4.5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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