IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Of course now that I posted that we'll be raining by 12z tomorrow the 12z NAM is coming in considerably slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Of course now that I posted that we'll be raining by 12z tomorrow the 12z NAM is coming in considerably slower. I still don't see tomorrow being a washout for most places. Some areas east of the city may see little to nothing and even western areas its probably scattered showers. I feel like we've seen these heavy rain events so many times before where it goes from a 48 hour event, to 24 hours and ends up that most place see the majority of the rain fall in 12 hours. Doesn't mean it wont rain tomorrow and Thursday but the bulk falls Wednesday and Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I still don't see tomorrow being a washout for most places. Some areas east of the city may see little to nothing and even western areas its probably scattered showers. I feel like we've seen these heavy rain events so many times before where it goes from a 48 hour event, to 24 hours and ends up that most place see the majority of the rain fall in 12 hours. Doesn't mean it wont rain tomorrow and Thursday but the bulk falls Wednesday and Wednesday night. I think it's been fairly well modeled thus far that a majority of the rain will fall in about a 12-18 hour period sometime between late Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning. The 00z GGEM and 00z ECMWF are more pessimistic about Tuesday, especially west of NYC and the 06z GFS has an actual period of rain for everyone tomorrow afternoon. Given the blocking and slow nature of the system and excellent model continuity a prolonged rain event is more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 This is valid for noon tomorrow on the 4k 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 A brief spin up or two is not out of the question if enough SBCAPE can be generated.not a chance in hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 not a chance in hell We've had some of our most severe storms tornado wise with high shear, low instability events, ala warm front passages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The most updated outlook from WPC now places a majority of the area in a risk for significant river flooding to begin May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I'm sure it's been touched on already, but the consistent strong east winds may cause some significant coastal flooding due to the duration of those winds piling up water especially in bays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I'm sure it's been touched on already, but the consistent strong east winds may cause some significant coastal flooding due to the duration of those winds piling up water especially in bays. And the New Moon, which is the most important factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The kind of scary thing here regarding river flooding potential is that the next two weeks after this moves out doesn't exactly look dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The kind of scary thing here regarding river flooding potential is that the next two weeks after this moves out doesn't exactly look dry. As long as we stay in a blocky pattern with troughing NE of us, it certainly won't be warm and could be rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Well don't expect torching temperatures with the upcoming pattern if you're into that sort of thing. I'll take the cooler blocky pattern over the heat any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Upton's first guess. They also mentioned that flood watches would likely be needed for Wednesday in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Well don't expect torching temperatures with the upcoming pattern if you're into that sort of thing. I'll take the cooler blocky pattern over the heat any day. Once the NAO finally breaks, probably mid month, we could go into a torchy period and 80s, perhaps 90s. Usually once these patterns break the heat surges in not long after, as often heat builds in over the Midwest when we are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Once the NAO finally breaks, probably mid month, we could go into a torchy period and 80s, perhaps 90s. Usually once these patterns break the heat surges in not long after, as often heat builds in over the Midwest when we are cold. What says the NAO will break mid-month? We just went many months in a row with a positive NAO, it will eventually even out. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we entered the wettest period that we've seen since August of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 What says the NAO will break mid-month? We just went many months in a row with a positive NAO, it will eventually even out. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we entered the wettest period that we've seen since August of 2011. The longer range GFS and Euro have us going back to more of a +NAO or neutral, with the PV reappearing around Baffin Bay. It might be too quick on this, but blocking persisting for weeks on end is highly unusual for sure in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Once the NAO finally breaks, probably mid month, we could go into a torchy period and 80s, perhaps 90s. Usually once these patterns break the heat surges in not long after, as often heat builds in over the Midwest when we are cold. My thoughts as well. That's how it can go sometimes. You can go from barely spring weather right to summer when the pattern flips. We very well may go from wet and cool to hot pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The longer range GFS and Euro have us going back to more of a +NAO or neutral, with the PV reappearing around Baffin Bay. It might be too quick on this, but blocking persisting for weeks on end is highly unusual for sure in May. I'm not saying it's not going to happen or will happen, but I think to say that we flip mid-month is pre-mature. Eventually the warm weather will come, it's inevitable. But this might be one of those summers where it rains four days in a row in July and we get stuck in the 60's for a few days. I've had plenty of summer vacations to the Jersey shore ruined like that in years passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 remember how cold and dreary this month was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 this month, too. i remember freezing my face off when newark hit its earliest 100F on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 this month, too. i remember freezing my face off when newark hit its earliest 100F on record That August was the second wettest on record for the northeast. Are you forgetting Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Blocking simply doesn't have the effect it does in the summer versus winter and even into the spring. Can anyone elaborate what causes cooler summers because I'm sure cooler summers are associated with wet weather as well. I've never heard of a cool but dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 This was from the 00z GGEM. 12z GGEM not out yet. For reference 75mm is ~2.95", 100mm is ~3.94" and 150mm is ~5.91". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Great consistency by the Euro for a 3"+ widespread rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Latest and greatest from Upton - Totals were bumped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 We've had some of our most severe storms tornado wise with high shear, low instability events, ala warm front passages. Some good stuff here; you'll have to scroll past the error messages: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/138123-sw-suffolk-county-tornado-warning/page__st__100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Flood Watches Hoisted for most of Mt. Holly's Central and Northern NJ counties. FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ304 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-061-062-105-106-290900-/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0004.140430T1400Z-140501T1600Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN304 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NEW JERSEY...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...SOMERSET... SUSSEX...WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...CARBON... LEHIGH... LOWER BUCKS...MONROE...NORTHAMPTON AND UPPER BUCKS.* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING* FORECAST RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING.* THE WATCH EXTENDS INTO THURSDAY...WELL AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED SINCE ANY FLOODING AND CRESTS OF THE LARGER RIVERS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The 18z NAM is having one of its infamous crap the bed runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Eyeballing the individual panels on the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean it looks like ~2.44" for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 That August was the second wettest on record for the northeast. Are you forgetting Irene? An amazingly wet month... had over 21 inches here for the month and over 25 in. in a 30 day period into early sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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