bluewave Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 The models are indicating that we will see a deep cutoff low get stuck under a strong block from 4/30 into early 5/1. The heavy rains should slowly train over interior sections and eventually make to the coast under the very strong LLJ with the potential for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 This has some flooding potential in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 How much rain does Euro have for the major cities? DC, Philly, NYC, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 How much rain does Euro have for the major cities? DC, Philly, NYC, etc?3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The 12z NAM is 2" plus for NYC already through Wednesday early evening with lots more to come. 3" plus for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 So, what time will the heaviest part of the rain start and stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Right now the heaviest rains look to fall Wednesday into Thursday but most models are washouts for Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 So, what time will the heaviest part of the rain start and stop? Going off the gfs Tuesday night thru Thursday morning we get 3"+ but salvage Thursday with temps well into the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 So wed is the washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Showers Tuesday, especially West, washout Wednesday into Thursday morning and showers Friday through Sunday. Per 12z GFS. QPF through 120 hours is 2-4". More west, less east. Typical 5" plus Lollies in the favorable areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 So wed is the washout? Yeah Wed thru Thursday morning. Tuesday and thursday might be salvagable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The models are in really good agreement on a fire hose type feature crossing the area Wednesday night capable of dumping a few inches of rain in a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 OT but lol at the day ten Euro. Yet another cut off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 What time Thursday morning should the washout period stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 What time Thursday morning should the washout period stop?Per the 12z Euro after 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Yeah Wed thru Thursday morning. Tuesday and thursday might be salvagable If you call cool and dreary salvageable for Tuesday, Thursday could be similar but much warmer, 70s vs 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Timing of the rain per 18z GFS. Light spotty activity, especially over the I-95 corridor and points NW beginning around dawn on Tuesday morning. Staying spotty and light to moderate throughout the day. Rainfall totals generally ~0.25" through 06z Wednesday. More SW and less NE. Moderate rain comes in early on Wednesday morning, in time to affect the morning rush. Looks like spotty activity overnight into early Wednesday. Slight break around mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Very heavy rain moving in between 6 and 9PM, especially NW of NYC. Heaviest rains overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Heaviest over NNJ and the LHV. 18z GFS showing roughly 3.75" in about 6 hours falling over central northern NNJ. Moves out early Thursday morning. Thursday - Heavy rain early, then spotty light rain and drizzle all day. Thursday night, clearing out. Total QPF in the 2.5-4.00" range. More NW, less SE. The general conclusion with all of this is that the heaviest axis of rain will fall over the most flood prone areas of NNJ and NE PA. HPC has the area blanketed in 3-5" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 A widespread 3-5" rainfall will cause flooding issues especially if it falls in a short period of time, so we'll have to monitor the situation. I do think the main focus will be to our N&W where 4-5" could fall and really cause some moderate flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Welcome relief for the dry conditions around the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Welcome relief for the dry conditions around the area .Too much at one time, reservoirs out here are at capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 CMC 12z 3 - 5" for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Here's what I'm thinking. Tuesday: Rain will start to come up early in the morning. I see the rain really starting to pick up in the overnight hours. Wednesday: Even more rain. Quite heavy during the day, and huge amounts during the evening. Thursday: Heavy at midnight, but will gradually wind down. Day should be mostly dry with a couple of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Final Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Heaviest rains come in Wednesday evening, with the warm front/triple-point low producing a 50kt+ LLJ and Pwats 1.50"+. Might also be enough elevated instability for some embedded thunder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Heaviest rains come in Wednesday evening, with the warm front/triple-point low producing a 50kt+ LLJ and Pwats 1.50"+. Might also be enough elevated instability for some embedded thunder: The steadiest and heaviest rain looks to be west of the city, as these setups often favor. There will certainly be heavy rain for a time in the city and along the coast, but it might be shorter duration as the front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The steadiest and heaviest rain looks to be west of the city, as these setups often favor. There will certainly be heavy rain for a time in the city and along the coast, but it might be shorter duration as the front passes. They city and the coast don't have the same river flooding concerns as inland areas. While it's supposed to rain for ~60 hours about 85% of what falls is expected to do so in about 12 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The steadiest and heaviest rain looks to be west of the city, as these setups often favor. There will certainly be heavy rain for a time in the city and along the coast, but it might be shorter duration as the front passes. It usually depends over the best convergence sets up. Which is always hard for the models to pinpoint. The last few rainfall events, have had higher rainfall totals over the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 The SREF's trended quite a bit wetter this run as they start to come into better agreement with the rest of the modeling. 09z SREF mean has 2.00"+ for KNYC which is pretty impressive for a low resolution ensemble mean. SREF is also showing a pocket of very strong 0-3km helicity crossing the region with the warm front on Wednesday. A brief spin up or two is not out of the question if enough SBCAPE can be generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 One pretty certain thing that's showing up on the higher res models is that the initial band of rain that attempts to push in here around midnight tonight isn't going to make it. Initially a narrow ridge will keep us in the clear but most of us should be raining tomorrow by 12z, especially west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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