janetjanet998 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 LOT: CUT OFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUS RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOBES OF VORTICITY CIRCLING AROUND THEM BUT NOT HELPING TO ADVANCE THE PATTERN OR SYSTEM. AS SUCH...HAVE A CHANCE OR BETTER OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 7 DAY TOTAL QPF OUTLOOK FROM WPC HAS 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN. DVN: SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO IOWA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER MONDAY AND OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES /IN A 48 HOUR PERIOD/ OVER ALL OR PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 We actually need rain. Not a lot but we need some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Good now we have a thread for this event. 12z EURO rainfall through 186 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 24, 2014 Author Share Posted April 24, 2014 Quite often these systems overachieve in the rainfall department on the NW side of the mid-level low with a steady moderate and long lasting rainfall event especially at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Nice.. I was talking to my best buddy Mr Saukville and I told him about the upcoming cut off... he was very excited and welcomed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Looks like I better get the lawn mowed tomorrow after work lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Nice.. I was talking to my best buddy Mr Saukville and I told him about the upcoming cut off... he was very excited and welcomed it. I'll bet he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Remember many years ago (2003?) when we had a nasty cut off low and it was cloudy/rainy for like 10 days ... i'm going to say that was May. All i remember is that i was close to going insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 At least the models have been trying to shift this thing a little farther north, which would bring in milder air Sunday and Monday. I can deal with a few days in the 40s mid to late week, but a full week of 40s would have been hard to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Cut off lows are not fun, but I guess at least we're not talking about big time heat or a long term drought. Probably the only thing worse than a cold rain with a cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 ready for the soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 The 96 hours leading up to 0z 05/01. GFS total rainfall. Hawkeye is in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 La Crosse: TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAYUPPER TROUGH WILL PLAGUE THE REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ANDSHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. GLOOMY AND BELOW NORMAL...WITHDETAILS HARD TO EXTRACT HERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS GOODMODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH STAYING PUT OVER THEGREAT LAKES AND AFFECTING THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLEWATER PLUME PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...UNLESS A DEFORMATIONREGION SETS UP WITH THE LOW...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERY ANDAMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 If the current rain forecast is close to being accurate, my area will be flirting with 10 inches for the month of April. In April 2013 we had 8.2", which was easily our wettest April in the last 60 years. We could even blow by that this year. I love a good heavy rain event, but it sure would be nice if we could save some of this for July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Forecasting these cut-offs suck, since pinpointing the vort maxes rotating around the low is nearly impossible this far out. Can't say much more than it's going to unseasonably cool and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 If the current rain forecast is close to being accurate, my area will be flirting with 10 inches for the month of April. In April 2013 we had 8.2", which was easily our wettest April in the last 60 years. We could even blow by that this year. I love a good heavy rain event, but it sure would be nice if we could save some of this for July and August. How are the fields out your way in terms of soil moisture? I seem to recall you saying things have been fairly dry so far this year. Do you think this forthcoming precipitation will benefit or delay the beginning of the planting/growing season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 How are the fields out your way in terms of soil moisture? I seem to recall you saying things have been fairly dry so far this year. Do you think this forthcoming precipitation will benefit or delay the beginning of the planting/growing season? I haven't seen the fields recently, but a farmer on the news yesterday suggested there is no wetness problem. I imagine another 3+ inches early next week will change that. The news also said farmers have until May 10th to plant and still get a full yield, so there will still be time to dry out. The drought monitor site still shows a good portion of Iowa in slight to moderate drought, so the ground can take more rain if it's spread out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 0z EURO rainfall amounts through 180 hours. Yep, the cut off hangs around through early next Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 New Euro... l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 New Euro... l Nice warm tongue around my area, will take it before the cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Euro takes it almost due north...wraps around some chilly air right down into WIsconsin. Yes! I love it Please...for the love of God... bring in some wrap around snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Euro takes it almost due north...wraps around some chilly air right down into WIsconsin. Yes! I love it Please...for the love of God... bring in some wrap around snow showers Haha. Looks too warm for that stuff. Rather get the cut off low business done earlier rather than later. ... it would suck to have this pattern in late May. 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 No surprise to me that the GFS Ensembles have backed off on the rain amounts. They have consistently been too wet lately. We're not even in a drought and yet there are likely feedback issues with that model, dewpoints are modeled too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 La Crosse is running low/mid 50Fs all week with chance of showers Sun-Fri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 La Crosse is running low/mid 50Fs all week with chance of showers Sun-Fri... Yesterday one of our mets decided to go with a forecast graphic that showed 47/36 for the high/low for Sunday through Friday, talk about persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Some intense convection being depicted on the NAM-hires tomorrow night across, MO, IL, and IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 AM rush hour should be a soaker for this area to the Quad Cities to Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Rain done for now...in a dry slot now for awhile. That line of storms across Iowa look nasty. Ended with about 1/4 inch so far. Still very breezy and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 First thunder showers of the low working their way in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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