May 2014 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg, relative to 1981-2010 normals) for our nine contest sites (the last three are optional and are scored separately). The sites are shown in this template, if you're able to use this for your predictions, it helps me make up the tables but list them any way you like.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

The forecasts are scored out of 100 with 2 pts deducted per 0.1 deg error (slightly more lenient deductions apply when anomalies exceed 5 deg, see previous months for details).

 

A late penalty of 1% per hour begins at 0605z on May 1st and continues until all 100% of possible points are penalized at 10z on May 5th.

 

This month, we have a bonus contest to be scored separately, where you predict the seasonal maximum high temperatures for each of the six or nine stations, as you prefer. Once again, these will be scored (by total degree errors) for the six main contest sites, the three optional sites separately, and depending on participation, all nine sites will have a ranking too.

 

Predict these seasonal maxima to the nearest degree (e.g. 99, 114) for each station and use the same template as you use for your anomalies.

 

Last year, we had this contest but it was announced as a contest to pick the highest temperature at any of the six stations. That more or less changed to a more complete format when everyone entered forecasts for all six stations. So that's what we're looking for this year, predictions for each station. Any late penalties will be ignored for this bonus contest. Normal will be arbitrarily defined as:

 

101 __ 100 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 104 __ 101 _____ 99 ___ 112 ___ 92

 

Good luck, and welcome if you're a new contestant.

 

 

[Quixotic1]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg, relative to 1981-2010 normals) for our nine contest sites (the last three are optional and are scored separately). The sites are shown in this template, if you're able to use this for your predictions, it helps me make up the tables but list them any way you like.

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

The forecasts are scored out of 100 with 2 pts deducted per 0.1 deg error (slightly more lenient deductions apply when anomalies exceed 5 deg, see previous months for details).

 

A late penalty of 1% per hour begins at 0605z on May 1st and continues until all 100% of possible points are penalized at 10z on May 5th.

 

This month, we have a bonus contest to be scored separately, where you predict the seasonal maximum high temperatures for each of the six or nine stations, as you prefer. Once again, these will be scored (by total degree errors) for the six main contest sites, the three optional sites separately, and depending on participation, all nine sites will have a ranking too.

 

Predict these seasonal maxima to the nearest degree (e.g. 99, 114) for each station and use the same template as you use for your anomalies.

 

Last year, we had this contest but it was announced as a contest to pick the highest temperature at any of the six stations. That more or less changed to a more complete format when everyone entered forecasts for all six stations. So that's what we're looking for this year, predictions for each station. Any late penalties will be ignored for this bonus contest. Normal will be arbitrarily defined as:

 

101 __ 100 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 104 __ 101 _____ 99 ___ 112 ___ 92

 

Good luck, and welcome if you're a new contestant.

Roger,

 

Could you clarify by "Seasonal"?  Spring or Summer or all?  I am going to assume Spring. 

[Roger Smith]

Sorry about the confusion, bonus question is for the annual maximum which would most likely fall in one of the summer months but for Houston you have to consider May as being one of the plausible months. So we're looking for the highest temperature of 2014 and the bonus will be settled when the existing highs are no longer in the range of daily records, which might be late September or thereabouts.

[uncle W]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

-1.0.....-0.5.....-0.1...............-1.2......-1.0......-0.5

102.......97.......96..................99.......102.......104

[ksammut]

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH_________DEN___PHX____SEA

-0.3.....-0.7.....-1.1..............-3.2......-2.1......-2.1................-2.6......0.0.......-.03

 

High Temps for the summer:

103.......99.......98.................101.......102.......102..............99.......114........94

[Quixotic1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH__________DEN___PHX__SEA

-0.2.....+0.0.....-0.4...............-1.4......0.0......+0.8...................+1.0.....+2.1....+1.5

99.........98.......94..................95.......99.......101...................94........113......89

 

Thanks Roger. 

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.3  ___+0.8 ____+0.8 __ -1.0 ____+1.5  ___+1.0 _______+2.0  ___+1.5 ____+1.5

[Stebo]

DCA +1.1 102

NYC +1.3 98

BOS +0.7 96

ORD -0.7 100

ATL +2.7 101

IAH -1.0 102

DEN -1.8 97

PHX -1.2 117

SEA -1.7 92

[wxdude64]

DCA ____ NYC ____ BOS ____ ORD ____ ATL ____ IAH ______ DEN ____ PHX ____ SEA

 

+1.4       +0.1         +0.5        -3.1         +2.0        -0.9             -0.2        +0.3      -0.4

 102         101          100        102           100        105              101          118        99

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH__________DEN___PHX__SEA

-0.6.....-0.6.....-0.4...............-1.1......+0.3......+0.5...................+1.8.....+2.5....-0.2

102.........100.......96..................98.......100.......103...................93........112......92

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-0.7      -1.3      -1.6             -1.9       0.7      1.3               2.5        2.0       1.7

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

100        96       92                96        103     108               97        115      90

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH__________DEN___PHX__SEA

+1.2.....+1.0.....+0.8...............-0.8.....+1.3......-0.4...................+0.8.....+1.0....+1.5

98.........97.......97..................96......100.......102...................100........116......91

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +1.8 98

NYC +1.3 97

BOS +1.0 94

ORD -0.9 91

ATL +2.4 96

IAH +1.5 100

DEN +0.2  102

PHX  +2.2 118

SEA -+2.7 92

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH__________DEN___PHX__SEA

+0.7.....+0.2.....+0.7...............-1.5.....+2.4......-0.9...................+0.5.....-1.5....-1.1

97.........96..........94..................93.......98.........99.....................98........115......91

 

[Tom]

DCA: +0.6 98: NYC: +0.2 99: BOS: +0.2 94: ORH: -0.3 103: ATL: +0.6 101: IAH: +0.3 103: DEN: +0.6 99: PHX: +0.2 120: SEA: -0.4 93

[bkviking]

DCA +1.4 99

NYC +1.2 98

BOS +0.9 95

ORD -0.4 97

ATL +0.7 98

IAH -0.4 102

DEN -0.6 99

PHX + 0.2 119

SEA -1.0 91

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +0.9 100

NYC +0.8 99

BOS +0.5 97

ORD +0.5 98

ATL +1.1 97

IAH +0.8 101

DEN -0.7 99

PHX + 0.9 117

SEA +0.9 92

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORH __ ATL __ IAH__________DEN___PHX__SEA

+1.5    +1.1    +1.0           -0.7      +1.5    -0.5               +0.6     +0.7    +1.3

99.........96.......96................95......100.......102...................102........117......95

[WEATHER53]

DCA:-1.7 NYC:-1.9 BOS:-1.1 ORD:-0.5 ATL:-0.9 IAH:+0.5

[WEATHER53]

Sorry for the part two.

One the maxes:

DCA:97

NYC:96

BOS:96

ORD:99

ATL:98

IAH:107

[blazess556]

DCA +1.0 103

NYC +1.4 100

BOS +0.9 98

ORD -0.6 101

ATL +2.8 102

IAH -0.4 103

DEN -1.6 99

PHX -1.0 118

SEA -1.5 94

[Roger Smith]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.1 ___ +3.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.1

 

104 ___ 101 ___ 101 ___ 102 ___ 100 __ 108 ___ 104 ___ 119 __ 99

 

 

[OHweather]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+0.8....+0.4.....-1.0............-1.5......+1.6.....+2.0..........-2.0.......-1.5......-1.0

100......98.........95................102.......102......102.............101.........115.......94

[metalicwx366]

DCA:+2.1 102

NYC:+1.4 100

BOS:+1.1 99

ORD:+0.4 99

ATL:+2.1 100

IAH:+1.9 105

DEN:-0.4 101

PHX:+1.4 116

SEA:+1.0 97

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA .2. 102

NYC 0.5 101

BOS 0.6 97

ORD 0.2 95

ATL 0.5 102

IAH 0.0 104

DEN 0.0 97

PHX 0.5 122

SEA 0.8 93

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for May 2014

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____________ Max _____________________________________________________________________DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH_DEN_PHX_SEA

 

 

metallicwx366  (-9%) _ +2.1_ +1.4_ +1.1 __ +0.4_ +2.1_ +1.9 __ --0.4_ +1.4_ +1.0

 _____________________________________________________________________ 102_100_ 99_ 99_100_105_101_116_ 97

 

Damage in Tolland ___ +1.8_ +1.3_ +1.0 __ --0.9_ +2.4_ +1.5 __ +0.2_ +2.2_ +2.7 

 ______________________________________________________________________  98_ 97_ 94_ 91_ 96_100_102_118_ 92

 

Roger Smith ________ +1.6_ +1.3_ +1.1 __+2.5_ +1.5_ +1.1__ +3.0_ +1.8_ +1.1

 _____________________________________________________________________ 104_101_101_102_100_108_104_119_ 99

 

Isotherm ___________ +1.5_ +1.1_ +1.0 __ --0.7_ +1.5_ --0.5 __+0.6_ +0.7_ +1.3

 _____________________________________________________________________  99_ 96_ 96_ 95_100_102_102_117_ 95

 

bkviking ____________ +1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 __ --0.4_ +0.7_ --0.4 __--0.6_ +0.2_ --1.0

 _____________________________________________________________________  99_ 98_ 95_ 97_ 98_102_ 99_119_ 91

 

wxdude64 ___________+1.4_ +0.1_ +0.5 __ --3.1_ +2.0_ --0.9 __--0.2_ +0.3_ --0.4

 _____________________________________________________________________ 102_101_100_102_100_105_101_118_ 99

 

Mallow _____________ +1.3_ +0.8_ +0.8 __ --1.0_ +1.5_ +1.0 __+2.0_ +1.5_ +1.5

 

 

donsutherland.1 _____ +1.2_ +1.0_ +0.8 __ --0.8_ +1.3_ --0.4 __ +0.8_ +1.0_ +1.5

 ______________________________________________________________________ 98_ 97_ 97_ 96_100_102_100_116_ 91

 

Stebo ______________ +1.1_ +1.3_ +0.7 __ --0.7_ +2.7_ --1.0 __--1.8_ --1.2_ --1.7

 _____________________________________________________________________ 102_ 98_ 96_100_101_102_ 97_117_ 92

 

blazess556 __________ +1.0_ +1.4_ +0.9 __ --0.6_ +2.8_ --0.4 __--1.6_ --1.0_ --1.5

 _____________________________________________________________________ 103_100_ 98_101_102_103_ 99_118_ 94

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____ +0.9_ +0.8_ +0.5 __ +0.5_ +1.1_ +0.8 __--0.7_ +0.9_ +0.9

 _____________________________________________________________________ 100_ 99_ 97_ 98_ 97_101_ 99_117_ 92

 

 

Consensus __________ +0.9_ +0.5_ +0.5 __ --0.9_ +1.3_ +0.3 __ +0.5_ +0.6_ +0.8

 _____________________________________________________________________ 101_ 99_ 97_ 99_100_102_ 99_115_ 94

 

 

OHweather __ (-1%) _ +0.8_ +0.4_ --1.0 __ --1.5_ +1.6_ +2.0 __--2.0_ --1.5_ --1.0

 _____________________________________________________________________ 100_ 98_ 95_102_102_102_101_115_ 94

 

RodneyS ____________ +0.7_ +0.2_ +0.7 __ --1.5_ +2.4_ --0.9 __+0.5_ --1.5_ --1.1

 _____________________________________________________________________  97_ 96_ 94_ 93_ 98_ 99_ 98_115_ 91

 

Tom _______________ +0.6_ +0.2_ +0.2 __ --0.3_ +0.6_ +0.3 __+0.6_ +0.2_ --0.4

 ______________________________________________________________________ 98_ 99_ 94_103_101_103_ 99_120_ 93

 

cpick79 ___ (-11%) ____ +0.2_ +0.5_ +0.6 __ +0.2_ +0.5__ 0.0 ___ 0.0_ +0.5_ +0.8

 ______________________________________________________________________102_101_ 97_ 95_102_104_ 97_122_ 93

 

 

Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0__ 0.0__ 0.0

 ______________________________________________________________________ 101_100_ 98_100_101_104_ 99_115_92

 

 

goobagooba __________ --0.2 __ 0.0 _--0.4 __--1.4 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __+1.0 _+2.1 _+1.5

 _______________________________________________________________________ 99_ 98_ 94_ 95_ 99_101_ 94_113_ 89

 

ksammut _____________ --0.3 _--0.7 _--1.1 __--3.2 _--2.1 _--2.1 __--2.6 __ 0.0 _--0.3

 _______________________________________________________________________103_ 99_ 98_101_102_102_ 99_114_ 94

 

hudsonvalley21 ________ --0.6 _--0.6 _--0.4 __--1.1 _+0.3 _+0.5 __+1.8 _+2.5 _--0.2

 _______________________________________________________________________102_100_ 96_ 98_100_103_ 93_112_ 92

 

SD __________________ --0.7 _--1.3 _--1.6 __--1.9 _+0.7 _+1.3 __+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.7

 _______________________________________________________________________100_ 96_ 92_ 96_103_108_ 97_115_ 90

 

Uncle W _____________ --1.0 _--0.5 _--0.1 __ --1.2 _--1.0 _--0.5 __ ---- _ ---- _ ----

 ______________________________________________________________________ 102_ 97_ 96 _ 99_102_104

 

Tenman Johnson ______ --1.7 _--1.9 _--1.1 __ --0.5 _--0.9 _+0.5 __ ---- _ ---- _ ----

 ______________________________________________________________________  97_ 96_ 96 _ 99_ 98_107

 

Note -- for the normal values of annual max, I think that I transposed ATL and IAH in post #1 but it does not appear that this confused anyone. Meanwhile, I have adjusted the normal value for PHX up to 115 and will try to find some actual normal values rather than these guesses, problem being one of the period of record etc. Extreme values are easier to find, of course. Consensus as always is based on median of forecasts.

[Roger Smith]

After n days ____ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

____ 6 _______ +1.9 __ +3.0 __ +2.4 ___--4.7 __ +0.7 __--3.1 ___ +8.5 __ +3.8 __ +3.5

____ 7 _______ +1.2 __ +2.5 __ +2.5 ___--3.1 __ +1.1 __--2.6 ___ +7.2 __ +1.7 __ +3.1

____ 8 _______ +2.2 __ +1.7 __ +2.1 ___--1.1 __ +1.8 __--2.1 ___ +5.2 __ +0.7 __ +2.6

____ 9 _______ +2.4 __ +1.4 __ +1.7 ___--0.2 __ +1.9 __--1.9 ___ +3.9 __ +0.1 __ +1.8

___ 10 _______ +3.0 __ +2.2 __ +2.8 ___+0.3 __ +2.0 __--1.8 ___ +3.0 ___ 0.0 __ +1.3

___ 11 _______ +3.5 __ +2.9 __ +3.9 ___+1.0 __ +2.2 __--1.8 ___ +1.8 __ --0.4 __ +1.4

___ 12 _______ +4.0 __ +3.7 __ +4.5 ___+2.3 __ +2.6 __--1.1 ____ 0.0 __ --0.7 __ +1.9

___ 13 _______ +4.6 __ +3.5 __ +3.5 ___+2.3 __ +3.0 __--1.7 ___ --1.1 __ --0.8 __ +2.7

___ 14 _______ +4.2 __ +3.2 __ +3.1 ___+1.5 __ +3.1 __--2.5 ___ --1.8 __ --0.7 __ +3.1

[Roger Smith]

Continuing the anomaly tracker ...

 

___ 15 _______ +4.4 __ +3.2 __ +3.5 ___+0.6 __ +2.1 __--3.1 ___ --2.1 __ --0.5 __ +3.9

___ 16 _______ +4.0 __ +3.1 __ +3.8 ___--0.5 __ +1.2 __--3.2 ___ --2.3 __ --0.2 __ +4.0

___ 17 _______ +3.4 __ +2.8 __ +4.1 ___--1.1 __ +0.6 __--3.2 ___ --2.3 __ +0.3 __ +4.0

___ 18 _______ +2.9 __ +2.4 __ +3.8 ___--1.1 __ --0.1 __--3.2 ___ --1.7 __ +0.5 __ +4.0

___ 19 _______ +2.5 __ +2.2 __ +3.7 ___--1.2 __ --0.4 __--3.2 ___ --1.3 __ +0.6 __ +3.9

___ 20 _______ +2.3 __ +2.1 __ +3.6 ___--0.5 __ --0.5 __--3.0 ___ --1.0 __ +0.6 __ +3.9

___ 21 _______ +2.5 __ +2.2 __ +3.3 ___+0.2 __ --0.4 __--2.8 ___ --0.9 __ +0.4 __ +3.9

___ 22 _______ +2.8 __ +2.1 __ +3.0 ___+0.2 __ --0.2 __--2.7 ___ --0.7 __ +0.1 __ +4.0

___ 23 _______ +2.8 __ +2.0 __ +2.6 ___+0.1 __ +0.1 __--2.7 ___ --0.8 __ --0.1 __ +4.0

___ 24 _______ +2.6 __ +1.8 __ +2.3 ___+0.0 __ +0.4 __--2.7 ___ --0.7 __ --0.2 __ +3.9

___ 25 _______ +2.6 __ +1.9 __ +2.2 ___+0.2 __ +0.6 __--2.6 ___ --0.7 __ --0.2 __ +3.6

___ 26 _______ +2.8 __ +2.2 __ +2.3 ___+0.6 __ +0.7 __--2.7 ___ --0.6 ___ 0.0 __ +3.5

___ 27 _______ +3.1 __ +2.5 __ +2.3 ___+1.0 __ +0.7 __--2.9 ___ --0.4 __ +0.3 __ +3.4

___ 28 _______ +3.2 __ +2.1 __ +1.6 ___+0.9 __ +0.8 __--3.0 ____ 0.0 __ +0.5 __ +3.3

___ 29 _______ +2.7 __ +1.8 __ +1.2 ___+1.0 __ +0.9 __--3.0 ___ +0.3 __ +0.7 __ +3.2

___ 30 _______ +2.6 __ +1.7 __ +1.0 ___+1.0 __ +1.0 __--2.9 ___ +0.3 __ +0.8 __ +3.1

 

___ 31 _______ +2.5 __ +1.6 __ +0.8 ___+1.3 __ +1.1 __--2.8 ___ +0.4 __ +1.1 __ +3.1

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for May 2014

 

Scores are adjusted as per the post made on July 19th in the July thread. Late penalties for March, April and May are adjusted to the same more lenient scale as applied in June and July. No other edits have been made so the rules and original scoring order are maintained in these tables. But revised scores are now added.

 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _________ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _________

_______________________________________CL ______________________ EX _____ TOTALS

 

 

bkviking ____________ 78 __ 82 __ 98 _____ 268 _____ 66 __ 92 __ 52 ____ 210 _____ 478

Isotherm ___________ 80 __ 90 __ 96 _____ 266 _____ 60 __ 92 __ 54 ____ 206 _____ 472

donsutherland.1 ______74 __ 88 __100____ 262 _____ 58 __ 96 __ 52 ____ 206 _____ 468

Roger Smith _________82 __ 94 __ 94 _____ 270 _____ 76 __ 92 __ 22 ____ 190 _____ 460

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 68 __ 84 __ 94 _____ 246 _____ 84__100_  28 ____ 212 _____ 458

Stebo ______________ 72 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 264 _____ 60 __ 68 __ 64 ____ 192 _____ 456

blazess556 __________ 70 __ 96__ 98 _____ 264 _____ 62 __ 66 __ 52 ____ 180 _____ 444

Mallow _____________ 76 __ 84 __100_____ 260 _____ 54 __ 92 __ 24 ____ 170 _____ 430

 

Consensus __________ 68 __ 78 __ 94 _____ 240 _____ 56 __ 96 __ 38 ____ 190 _____ 430

 

Damage in Tolland ___ 86 __ 94 __ 96 _____ 276 _____ 56 __ 74 __ 14 ____ 144 _____ 420

Tom _______________ 62 __ 72 __ 88 _____ 222 _____ 68 __ 90 __ 38 ____ 196 _____ 418

RodneyS ____________64 __ 72 __ 98 _____ 234 _____ 44 __ 74 __ 62 ____ 180 _____ 414

metallicwx366 _______ 92 __ 96 __ 94 _ 282 _________ 82 __ 80 __ 06 _ 168____ 450
____________ (-9%) _ 84 __ 87 __ 86 _____ 257 _____ 75 __ 73 __ 05 ____ 153 _____ 410

__ REVISED __ (-5%) _ 87 __ 91 __ 89 _____ 267 _____ 78 __ 76 __ 06 ____ 160 _____(427)

 

Normal _____________ 50 __ 68 __ 84 _____ 202 _____ 74 __ 78 __ 44 ____ 196 _____ 398

 

wxdude64 ___________78 __ 70 __ 94 _____ 242 _____ 12 __ 82 __ 62 ____ 156 _____ 398

cpick79 ____________ 54 __ 78 __ 96 _ 228 _________ 78 __ 88 __ 44 _ 210___ 438
_______ (-11%) _____ 48 __ 69 __ 85 _____  202 ____ 69 __ 78 __ 38 ____ 186 _____ 388

__ REVISED __ (-6%) _ 51 __ 73 __ 90 _____ 214 ____ 73 __ 83 __ 41 ____ 198 ____ (412)

goobagooba _________46 __ 68 __ 76 _____ 190 _____ 46 __ 78 __ 28 ____ 152 _____ 342

hudsonvalley21 ______ 38 __ 56 __ 70 _____ 162 _____ 52 __ 84 __ 34 ____ 168 _____ 330

OHweather _________ 66 __ 76 __ 64 _ 206 _________ 44 __ 90 __ 04 _ 138 ____ 344
__________ (-1%) ___ 65 __ 75 __ 63 _____ 203 _____ 44 __ 89 __ 04 ____ 137 _____ 340

Uncle W ____________ 30 __ 58 __ 82 _____ 170 _____ 50 __ 58 __ 54 ____ 162 _____ 332

ksammut ____________44 __ 54 __ 62 _____ 160 _____ 10 __ 36 __86 ____ 132 _____ 292

SD _________________36 __ 42 __ 52 _____ 130 _____ 36 __ 92 __ 18 ____ 146 _____ 276

Tenman Johnson _____ 16 __ 30 __ 62 _____ 108 _____ 64 __ 60 __ 34 ____ 158 _____ 266

 

 

Optional Western Contest -- Final Scoring for May 2014

 

Forecaster __________________ DEN __ PHX __ SEA ______ TOTAL

 

 

Damage in Tolland ___________ 96 ___ 78 ___ 92 _______ 266

Donsutherland.1 _____________ 92 ___ 98___ 68 _______ 258

Isotherm ___________________ 96 ___ 92 ___ 64 _______ 252

 

Consensus _________________ 98 ___ 90 ___ 54 _______ 242

 

goobagooba ________________ 88 ___ 80 ___ 68 _______ 236

Midlo Snow Maker ___________ 78 ___ 96 ___ 56 _______ 230

Mallow _____________________68 ___ 92 ___ 68 _______ 228

SD ________________________58 ___ 82 ___ 72 _______ 212

metallicwx366 ______________ 84 ___ 94 ___ 58 __ 236

______________ (-9%) ______ 76 ___ 86 ___ 53 _______ 215

__ REVISED __ (-5%) ________ 80 ___ 89 ___ 55 ______ (224)

Tom ______________________ 96 ___ 82 ___ 30 _______ 208

cpick79 ____________________ 92 ___ 88 ___ 54 __ 234

____________ (-11%) ________82 ___ 78 ___ 48 _______ 208

__ REVISED __ (-6%) ________ 86 ___ 83 ___ 51 _______ (220)

 

Normal ____________________ 92 ___ 78 ___ 38 _______ 208

 

wxdude64 __________________88 ___ 84 ___ 30 _______ 202

Roger Smith ________________48 ___ 86 ___ 60 _______ 194

bkviking ___________________ 80 ___ 82 ___ 18 _______ 180

hudsonvalley21 _____________ 72 ___ 72 ___ 34 _______ 178

RodneyS __________________ 98 ___ 48 ___ 16 _______ 162

ksammut __________________ 40 ___ 78 ___ 32 _______ 150

blazess556 _________________ 60 ___ 58 ___ 08 _______ 126

OHweather _________________ 52 ___ 48 ___ 18 __ 118

______________ (-1%) _______51 ___ 48 ___ 18 _______ 117

stebo ______________________56 ___ 54 ___ 04 _______ 114

[Roger Smith]

<<<o0o-------------------------  UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING (Jan-May 2014) ----------------------------------o0o>>>

 

Scores now adjusted for March, April and May late penalties.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ CL ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ EX ____ TOTALS ____ HIGH SCORES

 

__Annual anomalies __ --1.7 _ --2.5 _ --1.7 __ ,, ___ --4.8_ --1.3_ --3.1 __ ,, __________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA...CL..EX...MO

 

 

donsutherland.1 ______ 388 _ 386 _430 __1204 ___ 324 _ 358 _ 290 ___ 972 ___ 2176 _____011 011 __ 1 _ 1 __ APR

Roger Smith _________ 358 _ 352 _ 280 __ 990 ___ 380 _382 _ 297 ___1059 ___ 2049 _____110 212 __ 0 _ 1 __ JAN

OHweather __________ 395_ 343 _ 397 __1135 ___ 277 _ 374 _ 226 ___ 877 ___ 2012 _____100 020 __ 0 _ 0

Mallow ______________354 _ 332 _ 386 __1072 ___ 298 _ 349 _ 264 ___ 911 ___ 1983 _____001 100 __ 0 _ 0

blazess556 ___________344 _ 364 _ 382 __1090 ___ 284 _ 310 _ 256 ___ 850 ___ 1940 _____010 010 __ 0 _ 0

Isotherm ____________ 348 _ 334 _ 360 __1042 ___ 297 _ 332 _ 262 ___ 891 ___ 1933

Midlo Snow Maker _____362 _ 358 _ 404 __1124 ___ 268 _ 298 _ 226 ___ 792 ___ 1916 _____010 120 __ 0 _ 1

 

Consensus ___________ 342 _ 334 _ 382 __1058 ___ 268 _ 334 _ 248 ___ 850 ___ 1908 _____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

 

Damage in Tolland_____384 _ 364 _ 398 __1146 ___ 268 _ 292 _ 114 ___ 674 ___ 1820 _____100 000 __ 1 _ 0

Tenman Johnson ______342 _ 312 _ 352 __1006 ___ 239 _ 267 _ 304 ___ 810 ___ 1816 ____ 100 001 __ 2 _ 1 ___ MAR

Goobagooba _________ 298 _ 336 _ 378 __1012 ___ 269 _ 288 _ 246 ___ 803 ___ 1815 _____002 100 __ 0 _ 0

ksammut ____________ 286 _ 312 _ 338 __ 936 ___ 200 _ 274 _360 ___ 834 ___ 1770 _____011 001 __ 1 _ 1 __ FEB

metallicwx366 ________383 _ 295 _ 255 __ 933 ___ 313 _ 324 _ 202 ___ 839 ___ 1772 (rev)

Tom________________ 325 _ 321 _ 313 __ 959 ___ 322 _ 328 _ 187 ___ 837 ___ 1796 (rev)

wxdude64 ___________ 288 _ 302 _ 372 __ 962 ___ 189 _ 254 _ 312 ___ 755 ___ 1717 _____000 001 __ 0 _ 0

Uncle W _____________252 _ 264 _ 356 __ 870 ___ 232 _ 296 _ 318 ___ 846 ___ 1716 _____000 001 __ 0 _ 0

Stebo _______________296 _ 246 _ 344 __ 886 ___ 233 _ 298 _ 296 ___ 827 ___ 1713 _____100 000 __ 0 _ 0

bkviking _____________349 _ 298 _ 355 __1000 ___ 224 _ 325 _ 142 ___ 691 ___ 1691 rev __000 000 __ 0 _ 0 ___ MAY

hudsonvalley21 _______315 _ 307 _ 364 __ 986 ___ 207 _ 301 _ 244 ___ 752 ___ 1738 (rev)

cpick79 _____________ 280 _ 269 _ 353 __ 902 ___ 236 _ 333 _ 190 ___ 759 ___ 1661 (rev)

 

Normal ______________ 262 _ 204 _ 302 __ 768 ___ 166 _ 326 _ 258 ___ 750 ___ 1518 _____001 101 __ 0 _ 1

 

RodneyS _____________204 _ 216 _ 290 __ 710 ___ 161 _ 228 _ 312 ___ 701 ___ 1411

SD __________________179 _ 161 _ 233 __ 573 ___ 137 _ 285 _ 176 ___ 598 ___ 1171 (rev)

Chicago Storm** ______ 186 _ 153 _ 148 __ 487 ___ 117 _ 134 __ 97 ___ 348 ____ 835 (rev)

weatherdude*** _______ 66 __120 _ 150 __ 336 ___ 115 __96 _ 126 ___ 337 ____ 673 _____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

H20Town_Wx***______ 125 __102 _ 144 __ 371 ____ 83 __ 90 __ 60 ___ 233 ____ 604 rev_ 001 000 __ 0 _ 0

mkehobbyst****________84 __ 92 __ 78 ___ 254 ____64 __ 68 __ 80 ___ 212 ____ 466

TropicalAnalystwx13****_88 __ 44 __ 76 ___208 ____ 26 __ 76 ___60 ___ 162 ____370

Quincy****___________ 54 __ 66 __ 42 ___162 ____ 38 __ 82 __ 92 ___ 212 ____ 374

swflow****____________74 __ 66 __ 82 ___212 ____ 90 __ 36 __ 00 ___ 126 ____338

CSheridan12****_______ 46 __ 04 __ 00 ___ 50 _____12 __ 86 __ 44 ___ 144 ____192

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

Four Seasons Award Points (winter + spring provisional)

 

Forecaster ____________________ win _ spr _ sum _ aut ________ total

 

Donsutherland.1 ______________________ 7 __ 10 ___ -- ___ -- __________ 17

 

Goobagooba ________________________ 10 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- __________ 10

Roger Smith _________________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

blazess556 __________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Midlo Snow Maker ____________________ 4 ___ 3 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Mallow ______________________________2 ___ 5 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Isotherm ____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Damage in Tolland ____________________ 6 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 6

metallicwx366 ________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 4

Ohweather ___________________________0 ___ 4 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 4

 

Consensus __________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ -- ___ -- ____________4

 

Tenman Johnson, uncleW ______________ 0 ___ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 1

hudsonvalley, Tom, wxdude64 ___________1 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 1

 

(seasonal points ... 10 for first, 7 for second, 6 for third etc, 1 pt for 8th to 10th)

 

 

Annual Scores for Optional western contest (including updated four seasons)

 

____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL _____ best forecast awards ________ four season award

   Annual anomalies __ --0.6_ +3.7 _ +1.2__________DEN PHX SEA __ W_Months ___ Win,Spr,Sum,Aut _ TOT

 

Mallow ______________ 440 __ 362 __ 380 ____1182 ___2 0 0 ____ 2 __ FEB,APR __ 6, 7 ___ (13)

Isotherm _____________ 398 __344 __426 ____1168 _  _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ____10,4 ___ (14)

Midlo Snow Maker _____ 346 __ 402__ 380 ____1128 ___ 0 0 1 ____ 0 ____________ 4, 10___ (14)

 

Consensus ____________ 418 __ 324 __ 358 ____1100 ___________ 1 __ APR ______ 2,6 ____ (9)

 

donsutherland.1 _______ 350 __ 342 __388 ____1080 ___ 1 0 0 ____ 0 _____________1,6 ____ (7)

Goobagooba __________ 384 __ 358__ 336 ____1078 ___ 1 1 0 ____ 1 __ JAN ______ 7,1 ____ (8)

blazess556 ___________ 358 __ 314 __ 364 ____1036 _ _ 0 0 1 ____ 0 _ _ _ _ _______5,1 ____ (6)

Damage in Tolland _____ 324 __ 324 __ 378 ___ 1026 ________________ MAY ______ 0,3 ____ (3)

metalicwx366 _________ 336 __ 309 __ 365 ___ 1010 (rev) _______________________1,1 ____ (2)

Roger Smith __________ 248 ___338__ 404 ____ 990 ___ 0 0 1 ____ 0 _____________ 2,0 ____ (2)

bkviking ______________326 __ 365 __ 310 ____ 991rev _0 1 0 ____ 1 __ MAR ______ 0,2 ____ (2)

wxdude64 ____________ 420 __ 246 __ 288 ____954 ___ 1 0 0 ____ 0 _____________3,0 ____  (3)

Tom _________________303 __ 288 __ 317 ____ 908 (rev) _______________________ 1,0 ____ (1)

 

Normal ______________ 356 __ 196 __ 286 ____ 838

 

ksammut _____________320 __ 224 ___266 ____ 810

hudsonvalley21*_______ 274 __ 215 ___231 ____ 720 (rev)

RodneyS _____________ 372 __ 152 __ 180 ____ 704

OHweather ___________ 247 __ 160 __ 286 ____ 693

cpick79*______________254 __ 235 __ 158 _____647 (rev) ______________________ 0,5 ____ (5)
SD___________________194 __ 217 __ 252 _____667 (rev)
stebo ________________292 __ 134 __ 186 _____612

Chicago Storm** ______ 172 __ 108 __ 162 _____442 (rev)
H20Town_Wx***______ 146 ___ 97 __ 141 _____384 (rev)
Quincy**** ___________ 84 ___100 ___ 80 _____264 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0
Mikehobbyst****_______100 ___ 66 ___ 52 _____218 ___ 1 0 0 ____ 0

swflow**** ___________ 61 ___ 90 ___ 40 _____ 191 (rev)0 1 0 ____0
TropicalAnalystwx13****_54 ___ 00 ___ 92 _____ 146
CSheridan12**** ______ 00 ___ 84 ___ 00 ______ 84 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0
weatherdude**** ______12 ___ 08 ___ 30 ______ 50

___________________________________________________________

 

* months missed