Stovepipe Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Tuesday Moderate Risk should extend into East Tenn. North Alabama should all be MDT up to and maybe into south-central Tenn. Northwest Georgia should be MDT. I expect today will be similar to yesterday. Like SPC adding back hatched Deep South. Reasoning: Clearing skies will allow ATMO reload. Evapotranspiration after heavy rain will promote Tds higher than progged. VIS sat loop indicates PVA/lift deep into Louisiana, not just Texas and Ark. All that is coming straight into the South. LLJ was misplaced by overnight NAM over in NC. 12Z run has it back into East Tenn. Hi-res NAM is more bullish. Broken line of supercells will develop early this afternoon in MS/AL. It will spread into TN/GA by late afternoon. Several tornadoes from east-central MS into Alabama. Few strong tornadoes in AL. Tornadoes in TN/GA. While I don't see a high risk, jet angle with front not enough today, MDT risk needs to go into East Tenn and northwest GA. Yesterday I posted on the Main Forum pinned thread, but I get the feeling people are too anxious to post rather than read. Back on our home sub-forum today... Your thoughts are very much appreciated Jeff. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 No problem. SPC pulled the 10% in Tenn. Huge mistake! SPC does not mention it, but their reasoning may be concern about dry air working southeast. Jet max in TN/KY already doing that to Nashville. However back jet max in Louisiana should maintain current sounding over southeast Tenn and perhaps even advect in richer profile to my south. Even Knoxville should still be in the 10% IMHO. Yesterday Chatty went from 5% to 15 hatched but it can go both ways. We'll see but I'm still bullish severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 HRRR looked pretty nasty earlier today. Very similar to yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Here comes round two. The radar is lighting up over MS. Storm trajectory should be almost identical to yesterday. Looking at the vis. sat, these cells will have nothing but sunny skies ahead of them all the way through east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Yes both the HRRR and hi-res 18Z NAM just delay the event. They punt the previously progged dinnertime action and instead go for a repeat of late evening to Midnight boomers from Chatty to Knox. Nice! That Gulf MCS really disrupted return instability per 18Z BMX sounding and MD 479 explains it well. Cells in MS/AL seem low top. Appears the above models recover the instability after dark. Subtle jet energy in Louisiana should come in behind the mistimed midday jet max. LLJ currently flowing into western NC should pull back into East Tennessee if that Louisiana wave influences. Surface dews mixed out a bit this afternoon but should moisten up slightly this evening. Models get deep convection going mid evening in North Alabama, sliding it through East Tennessee overnight. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.