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April 28th-29th Severe Threat


Windspeed

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I can't believe how dead this thread is. There is a lot of severe weather pointed right at the valley right now. 

 

There's a main thread on the national forum that's covering the entire multi-day event. Most everyone is there. But to quickly add... Tomorrow is looking just as omninous now for the afternoon and evening with LLC and high shear values still cranking over Southern MS, Alabama into the Southern and Central Appalachians.

 

As for the rest of tonight, I'm certainly concerned about a possible spin-up or two around the Fayatteville and Chattanooga areas. Also, wind damage potential in eastern Tennessee tonight as the ongoing cells continue to merge into a more consolidated line and push northeast. Looks like heavy rain continuing throughout the night for much of the Valley. Will watch closely to see if much of the MCS convection and cloud coverage is able to clear out by midday tomorrow. You pretty much want cloud coverage as long as possible tomorrow to help keep destabilization in check as dewpoints will remain high until late Tuesday night / early Wed morning.

 

Going to be another busy day tomorrow....

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Starting to hear some deep thunder off those little I-75 runners creeping up near Athens TN. We're braced here in Knox, hoping the cells weaken considerably now that it's dark. It does have that severe "feel" outside though.

And yes, I think most are following the general forum thread on this. But, I hope us locals chime in with obs.

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Starting to hear some deep thunder off those little I-75 runners creeping up near Athens TN. We're braced here in Knox, hoping the cells weaken considerably now that it's dark. It does have that severe "feel" outside though.

And yes, I think most are following the general forum thread on this. But, I hope us locals chime in with obs.

Ya good luck. Was just thinking about how eeri it is outside. Current temp here is 71 degrees at almost 10 at night. very strange and I think these storms will hold together. Not a good thing for YN right know.

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Starting to hear some deep thunder off those little I-75 runners creeping up near Athens TN. We're braced here in Knox, hoping the cells weaken considerably now that it's dark. It does have that severe "feel" outside though.

And yes, I think most are following the general forum thread on this. But, I hope us locals chime in with obs.

Just had a nice soaking boomer that popped up out of nowhere over the house. Maybe the atmosphere wasn't as worked over as I thought it was from the earlier afternoon storms.

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90/80 PDS EXTENDED!

 

 

 

ww0111_radar_big.gif

SEL1   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 111   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   640 PM EDT MON APR 28 2014   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      NORTHWEST GEORGIA     EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA     SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM     UNTIL 100 AM EDT.   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF   CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.   &&   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...WW 110...   DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AL MAY   MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND TRACK INTO WATCH AREA.    MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL   RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES.  HAIL AND   DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.   ...HART
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Just got power back from a storm this afternoon. Lots of destruction here, trees down every where. Roof and siding damage. Destroyed parts of Jellico. Flipped automobiles over and twisted a house off it's foundation. Not sure if it was a tornado, but I suspect it could have been one. There's not been a confirmed one in Campbell County since 1934, the longest streak of any county in the entire state.

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Just got power back from a storm this afternoon. Lots of destruction here, trees down every where. Roof and siding damage. Destroyed parts of Jellico. Flipped automobiles over and twisted a house off it's foundation. Not sure if it was a tornado, but I suspect it could have been one. There's not been a confirmed one in Campbell County since 1934, the longest streak of any county in the entire state.

 

Sorry to hear about the damage John, glad you are ok.  Power went out here this morning and is still off.  It's kind of chaotic with many traffic lights out across the county.

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I awoke to hail hitting the house at what I thought was 1:30ish but based on the radar, LSRs etc I must not have fully awoken....Saw on one of the LSRs a spotter report of a funnel cloud in Loudon....

 

As an aside...this board will always be a winter weather board. It has been obvious since I have been on these boards since 2002....severe never gets the same coverage as winter weather so it is not surprising that posts are down for this...

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Tuesday Moderate Risk should extend into East Tenn. North Alabama should all be MDT up to and maybe into south-central Tenn. Northwest Georgia should be MDT. I expect today will be similar to yesterday. Like SPC adding back hatched Deep South.

 

Reasoning: Clearing skies will allow ATMO reload. Evapotranspiration after heavy rain will promote Tds higher than progged. VIS sat loop indicates PVA/lift deep into Louisiana, not just Texas and Ark. All that is coming straight into the South. LLJ was misplaced by overnight NAM over in NC. 12Z run has it back into East Tenn. Hi-res NAM is more bullish. Broken line of supercells will develop early this afternoon in MS/AL. It will spread into TN/GA by late afternoon. Several tornadoes from east-central MS into Alabama. Few strong tornadoes in AL. Tornadoes in TN/GA. While I don't see a high risk, jet angle with front not enough today, MDT risk needs to go into East Tenn and northwest GA.

 

Yesterday I posted on the Main Forum pinned thread, but I get the feeling people are too anxious to post rather than read. Back on our home sub-forum today... 

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