wisconsinwx Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 So does his memory, because his county had a severe storm just 9 days ago. Very true, and perhaps his expectations as well. April is rarely notable for severe in the Lakes, it takes until Mid May usually before we can regularly expect warm fronts to make it past I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Very true, and perhaps his expectations as well. April is rarely notable for severe in the Lakes, it takes until Mid May usually before we can regularly expect warm fronts to make it past I80. I can think of several instances off the top of my head that would disagree. We may not get regular MCSs through here in April, but some of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in this part of the country have happened in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I can think of several instances off the top of my head that would disagree. We may not get regular MCSs through here in April, but some of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in this part of the country have happened in April. Agreed...the consistency/frequency is not there in April but the ceiling is pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 I can think of several instances off the top of my head that would disagree. We may not get regular MCSs through here in April, but some of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in this part of the country have happened in April. Sure we can get the occasional outbreak (Palm Sunday 2011 is one I'm sure you're thinking of) but again I'm talking by and large, and the frequency is certainly much less than May through July or August per month averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Sure we can get the occasional outbreak (Palm Sunday 2011 is one I'm sure you're thinking of) but again I'm talking by and large, and the frequency is certainly much less than May through July or August per month averages. You mean April 11th, 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 113.png 143.png 174.png This is awesome, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Very true, and perhaps his expectations as well. April is rarely notable for severe in the Lakes, it takes until Mid May usually before we can regularly expect warm fronts to make it past I80. Huh? lol Utica and Oak Lawn Anniversaries were the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Some kind of climo knowledge he has. How about 4/19/96 to make it a trifecta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Sure we can get the occasional outbreak (Palm Sunday 2011 is one I'm sure you're thinking of) but again I'm talking by and large, and the frequency is certainly much less than May through July or August per month averages. That was just one of many, others have posted dates as well of tornado outbreaks in this region in April. Maybe you should buff up on your climatology a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 This is awesome, thanks! No prob. There's a whole bunch of stuff to play around with at the SPC site. Here are the tornado probs for the same dates as above. The northward migration is evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 That was just one of many, others have posted dates as well of tornado outbreaks in this region in April. Maybe you should buff up on your climatology a bit. F/EF3-F/EF5 tornadoes in the region for the months of January-April since 1950 (that's 172 in 63 years): The number jumps to 558 if you include F/EF2s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 You mean April 11th, 1965. No, April 10, 2011. You guys are too busy trying to tear me apart though to get your climo and dates right, either. A large majority of those dangerous tornadoes are south of the Great Lakes, in landlocked areas of Indiana and Illinois. The dwindling tornado probs for mid to late April posted above paint a more realistic picture that once you get into Jonger and my neck of the woods, April is much less likely to yield frequent severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 No, April 10, 2011. You guys are too busy trying to tear me apart though to get your climo and dates right, either. A large majority of those dangerous tornadoes are south of the Great Lakes, in landlocked areas of Indiana and Illinois. The dwindling tornado probs for mid to late April posted above paint a more realistic picture that once you get into Jonger and my neck of the woods, April is much less likely to yield frequent severe weather. lol Oh, and that wasn't an "outbreak". Nice try though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 No, April 10, 2011. You guys are too busy trying to tear me apart though to get your climo and dates right, either. A large majority of those dangerous tornadoes are south of the Great Lakes, in landlocked areas of Indiana and Illinois. The dwindling tornado probs for mid to late April posted above paint a more realistic picture that once you get into Jonger and my neck of the woods, April is much less likely to yield frequent severe weather. Oh come on, you can't say that after you didn't specify in your original post. Also April 17th was Palm Sunday in 2011 so checkmate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Split the April severe weather climo discussion. I'm going to be adding some stuff in this thread in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Oh come on, you can't say that after you didn't specify in your original post. Also April 17th was Palm Sunday in 2011 so checkmate. My mistake on the Palm Sunday reference, you are right. Joe, how does 15 tornadoes in April in Wisconsin not constitute an 'outbreak'? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=110410_tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 My mistake on the Palm Sunday reference, you are right. Joe, how does 15 tornadoes in April in Wisconsin not constitute an 'outbreak'? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=110410_tornadoes Outbreak or not, the fact that there were that many tornadoes there is just proving the counterpoint to Jonger, that severe weather is frequent in April. I mean we can bring up year after year of outbreaks in this part of the world in April, so to say severe weather isn't frequent in April is pretty dumb. Using a localized area of your location or his isn't proving the argument because severe weather is isolated by nature so it isn't going to hit every locale the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Outbreak or not, the fact that there were that many tornadoes there is just proving the counterpoint to Jonger, that severe weather is frequent in April. I mean we can bring up year after year of outbreaks in this part of the world in April, so to say severe weather isn't frequent in April is pretty dumb. Using a localized area of your location or his isn't proving the argument because severe weather is isolated by nature so it isn't going to hit every locale the same. The number of years that feature an outbreak (therefore the frequency on a daily basis) isn't nearly what it is other months, but as you guys have said, the ceiling is pretty high, that I would agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Going with wisconsinwx's argument that Illinois and Indiana are "landlocked", I restricted my search to just Wisconsin and Michigan tornadoes for the month of April from 1950-2013. 44 out of those 64 Aprils had at least one tornado somewhere in that area but notice there are a lot of years with only 1 or very few. Here's the breakdown of tornadoes by date with number of F4/F5 tornadoes noted when applicable. 4/7/1954: 5 4/15/1954: 1 4/26/1954: 2 4/18/1955: 4 4/3/1956: 6 (2 F4, 1 F5) 4/14/1956: 1 4/19/1957: 6 (1 F4) 4/25/1957: 1 4/27/1957: 1 4/16/1960: 1 4/23/1960: 1 4/24/1960: 1 4/30/1962: 4 4/17/1963: 2 4/28/1964: 1 4/11/1965: 20 (5 F4) 4/1/1966: 1 4/19/1966: 1 4/20/1966: 2 4/14/1967: 2 4/16/1967: 3 4/21/1967: 10 (1 F4) 4/20/1968: 2 4/23/1968: 3 4/9/1969: 1 4/15/1969: 1 4/22/1970: 5 4/29/1970: 2 4/30/1970: 1 4/12/1972: 3 4/1/1973: 1 4/1/1974: 1 4/3/1974: 5 4/12/1974: 4 4/21/1974: 5 (1 F4) 4/17/1975: 1 4/18/1975: 1 4/19/1975: 1 4/15/1976: 2 4/21/1976: 2 4/22/1976: 1 4/2/1977: 7 (2 F4) 4/5/1978: 1 4/11/1978: 2 4/12/1979: 2 4/7/1980: 5 4/8/1980: 1 4/19/1980: 2 4/3/1981: 1 4/4/1981: 2 (1 F4) 4/17/1981: 1 4/12/1982: 1 4/26/1984: 1 4/27/1984: 11 (2 F4) 4/4/1985: 1 4/28/1986: 1 4/1/1987: 1 4/3/1988: 5 4/8/1991: 1 4/23/1991: 1 4/16/1992: 1 4/20/1992: 2 4/24/1993: 2 4/24/1994: 2 4/26/1994: 4 4/12/1996: 1 4/25/1996: 1 4/16/1998: 1 4/11/2001: 2 4/18/2002: 6 4/18/2004: 2 4/26/2007: 1 4/8/2008: 1 4/25/2008: 3 4/26/2009: 1 4/30/2010: 4 4/10/2011: 15 4/26/2011: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 My mistake on the Palm Sunday reference, you are right. Joe, how does 15 tornadoes in April in Wisconsin not constitute an 'outbreak'? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=110410_tornadoes Here's a small sample of a few from just the past 3 years... 5/24-26/11: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110524_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110525_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110526_rpts.html 4/14-16/11: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110414_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110415_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110416_rpts.html 4/14/12 (12-14th): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120414_rpts.html 11/17/13: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131117_rpts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Here's a small sample of a few from just the past 3 years... 5/24-26/11: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110524_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110525_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110526_rpts.html 4/14-16/11: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110414_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110415_rpts.html http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110416_rpts.html 4/14/12 (12-14th): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120414_rpts.html 11/17/13: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/131117_rpts.html Did you even click on the link I displayed in my last post? If the local office even specified it as an 'outbreak', I think I'll take their word over an amateur meteorologist (myself included). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 15 tornadoes in a state this far north all on one day is an outbreak. Furthermore this isn't going to be another one of those arguments like the event/non event one. Whether or not it holds up to other pinnacle outbreaks that were posted is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Did you even click on the link I displayed in my last post? If the local office even specified it as an 'outbreak', I think I'll take their word over an amateur meteorologist (myself included). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 15 tornadoes in a state this far north all on one day is an outbreak. Furthermore this isn't going to be another one of those arguments like the event/non event one. Whether or not it holds up to other pinnacle outbreaks that were posted is irrelevant. There's no widely accepted standard as to what constitutes an outbreak as far as I'm aware, but 4/10/11 qualifies imo with 15 in Wisconsin and 4 of them EF2/EF3. If we want to get cute then perhaps local outbreak would be a better term since it didn't cover a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 There's no widely accepted standard as to what constitutes an outbreak as far as I'm aware, but 4/10/11 qualifies imo with 15 in Wisconsin and 4 of them EF2/EF3. If we want to get cute then perhaps local outbreak would be a better term since it didn't cover a large area. Yeah local outbreak would be a good way of putting it, a bit like 7/2/1997 in Michigan but standards change from MI/WI to OK/KS/TX. You can't use the same standard for both areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted April 24, 2014 Share Posted April 24, 2014 Incidentally thats an eyebrow raising 3F 2Furious turn on the THP map Should be the 10mi left limb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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