NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If I'm gnna wake up for work at 2am, this is what I want to be seeing lol! Euro is the beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that is very interesting, and i would have to agree given the extent of the block! il be watching for that trend for sure..Slower is better, got it... A measly 12 hours sure seems important this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here is another alarm bell. At 108h, the NOGAPS matches the GFS on s/w speed/positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If I'm gnna wake up for work at 2am, this is what I want to be seeing lol! Euro is the beast This is looking more and more like our Heather A. storm...if the next few runs keep up with this new trend, then I see no reason not to honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here is another alarm bell. At 108h, the NOGAPS matches the GFS on s/w speed/positioning. Alarm bell in what sense? I am thinking in a good way ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Alarm bell in what sense? I am thinking in a good way ... Oh I'm sorry. The NOGAPS is a notoriously progressive model. I am suggesting that if the GFS has company with the NOGAPS then perhaps it is slightly too fast with the s/w...not by a lot...but maybe that matters in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Oh I'm sorry. The NOGAPS is a notoriously progressive model. I am suggesting that if the GFS has company with the NOGAPS then perhaps it is slightly too fast with the s/w...not by a lot...but maybe that matters in the end. I like using the NOGAPS for the same reasons....this past storm it was always very very offshore which worried me it was going to miss, and it ultimately did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I like using the NOGAPS for the same reasons....this past storm it was always very very offshore which worried me it was going to miss, and it ultimately did. Yeah, it's not a bad idea to break it out in situations like this. Based on everything we have in (waiting on euro ensembles), it probably will be in W MO 12z FRI. I'm sure the euro ens. will agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro run was certainly exciting. However, the biggest indicator of a possible real threat is the spike in the number of HM posts. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Euro run was certainly exciting. However, the biggest indicator of a possible real threat is the spike in the number of HM posts. MDstorm LOL The legit threats bring me out of the woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is the most excited I've ever been at 2:30 in the morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is looking more and more like our Heather A. storm...if the next few runs keep up with this new trend, then I see no reason not to honk. No doubt about it. Let us see a few more runs at least, but let us also be thankful that the euro/ggem are signaling this and were not holding out on gfs fantasy solution at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No doubt about it. Let us see a few more runs at least, but let us also be thankful that the euro/ggem are signaling this and were not holding out on gfs fantasy solution at this moment May I ask what a Heather A. Storm is ? Something I am quite sure i never heard or seen referenced before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 May I ask what a Heather A. Storm is ? Something I am quite sure i never heard or seen referenced before. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/index.html Heather Archambault found enhanced precipitation anomalies during NAO phase shifts. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/research.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 We have expounded her findings over the years and noticed that during -NAO to +NAO phase shifts, especially, there tends to be major KU events. Intuitively, this makes sense because at the end of a -NAO phase, usually there is a retrograding block or a 50-50 low that slowly shifts north. Both of these features ultimately work their way back to where they belong (warmer bubble back to Mid Latitudes and PV back to north latitudes). Therefore, you go from a -NAO to +NAO and these same features gave way to a snowstorm. Make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That does make alot of sense. Right now this was i believe the strongest -AO during a la nina for december, and the -NAO block has been -2/-3 and keeping the temps well below normal...And it's also is looking that the PNA is spiking at the right time...Looks like we have the big 3 factors in place..Also, arent we going to be in phase 7/8 of the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That does make alot of sense. Right now this was i believe the strongest -AO during a la nina for december, and the -NAO block has been keeping the temps well below normal...And it also is looking that the PNA is spiking at the right time...Looks like we have the big 3 factors in place..Also, arent we going to be in phase 7/8 of the MJO? If you want to get a KU storm in a strong La Nina, you are going to need something equally mammoth to negate its effects...that being our incredible -AO/NAO block. The PNA spike and Atlantic enhancement are from the "MJO" parameters. Technically, the MJO is "dead" but that's because ENSO's effects are dampening the signal. The mean uplift cell over Indonesia associated with ENSO has weakened and will remain that way for another week before it comes back again in full strength. Call it a burp, blip, MJO phase7-8, whatever...but it is helping the end of December out big time. A lot of cool "coincidences" happening to negate la nina and it is quite amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I quite literally have to go to the bathroom after looking at the EURO. Is this another blemish as it had with the last threat? I'm much more interested in seeing some sort of consistency, especially since we'd still be a week out. However, given the possible explosive nature of this storm and its perceived proportions, it may be possible that models lock on this early. I'm still concerned that this being a La Nina it would be more difficult to achieve model accuracy, but at least for the time being it is something to watch. Better than tracking nothing, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 im excited for you folks who are gonna get nailed but for me though, farther south would be a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 im excited for you folks who are gonna get nailed but for me though, farther south would be a good thing? Not for you. The GFS would be the better solution for you as the Euro would be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone have the euro ensembles by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Anyone have the euro ensembles by any chance? http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html (not updated yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Would the Euro known bias of holding too much energy in the SW be playing into why we are seeing such a wrapped up solution?? I know it's only one run so people have to be calm..I remember for this past weekend getting all excited over a storm on 1 run of the euro... then it vanished. One thing though for sure is that higher ratios will be the key further inland as the storm draws much colder air into it so even .75 could yield a foot of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Would the Euro known bias of holding too much energy in the SW be playing into why we are seeing such a wrapped up solution?? I know it's only one run so people have to be calm..I remember for this past weekend getting all excited over a storm on 1 run of the euro... then it vanished. One thing though for sure is that higher ratios will be the key further inland as the storm draws much colder air into it so even .75 could yield a foot of snow.. This time it has support from the GGEM and its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL at the title...the euro is not a paralyzing HECS, but impressive regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro ensembles take the low from near HSE to perhaps just se of the BM at hr 156 and then about 100nm east of the Cape by hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 fwiw HPC is favoring the Canadian solution...believes the 0z OP Euro is too far north/close to the coast. Going with the ensemble means gives a slightly more southerly and offshore track so its sort of splitting hairs at this point. nice to see all the models pretty close and consistent at this time frame though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 757 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOW/MORE CLOSED THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF THE OVERALL 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS SOLUTION...IMPLYING IT IS TOO SLOW. TELECONNECTIONS FARTHER NORTH IMPLY STRONGER ENERGY SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH SHOULD ABSORB THE SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. EITHER WAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OR TENNESSEE VALLEY OFFSHORE THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS CYCLONE WILL TRACK. THE ECMWF BECOMES THE MOST NORTHWESTERLY OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE...AND IF THIS SURFACE LOW WERE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH RATHER THAN A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED CYCLONE A MORE COASTAL TRACK FOR NEW ENGLAND WOULD MAKE SENSE. SINCE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE...AND THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS CYCLONE IN CANADA...ITS CYCLONE TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTH/TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...MOVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM...A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/AREA OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST...WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. DUE TO PREFERENCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE THE 00Z CANADIAN HERE...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GEFS MEAN ARE REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES. EITHER WAY...WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION MARK...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING...THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO. SOURCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 fwiw HPC is favoring the Canadian solution...believes the 0z OP Euro is too far north/close to the coast. Going with the ensemble means gives a slightly more southerly and offshore track so its sort of splitting hairs at this point. nice to see all the models pretty close and consistent at this time frame though. OZ EURO ENSEMBLES SUPPORT HPC AND SHOW HISTORIC VA / WESTERN NC MD XMAS SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OZ EURO ENSEMBLES SUPPORT HPC AND SHOW HISTORIC VA / WESTERN NC MD XMAS SNOW it looks like qpf dosent hit our area till Dec 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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