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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/20/2010


Dr No

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incorrect

0Z ggem at 120 hr has the Low in the EXACT same location as the 0z euro

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

My 120 hour Euro map has a 1012mb surface low over Central Louisiana.

That surface low then tracks east into Southeast MS.

That's a bit south of the GGEM from what I can see, which has the SLP centered in Northern AL and is several hours faster.

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Guest someguy

My 120 hour Euro map has a 1012mb surface low over Central Louisiana.

That surface low then tracks east into Southeast MS.

That's a bit south of the GGEM from what I can see, which has the SLP centered in Northern AL and is several hours faster.

It is still A Gulf coast solution

no?

recall the GFS has the Low over KY and TN and the 850 Low thru WVA

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Yes, if this slowing trend keeps up, it is time to honk man...I don't care what the 3.4 ENSO number is.

I think we all would sacrifice less snow for Christmas to see a monster.

Even if it means i would still have to see my mother in law on Christmas Day, i would.:snowman:

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It is still A Gulf coast solution

no?

recall the GFS has the Low over KY and TN and the 850 Low thru WVA

Sure, but I meant literally along the "Gulf Coast" which is where the Euro tracks the SLP. The GGEM seems a good bit northeast and faster..and the GFS is way north of the Euro, not even really close.

This is all pretty useless quibbling anyway--the point is the model is digging the shortwave pretty dramatically. The upper air pattern is really incredible as the phase occurs--something like that could produce prolific snows from VA/NC all the way into New England.

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FEB

I told you that the last 12 runs of the GFS were BS....

the 0z GFS shift here is BIG and the identical surFace and 850 and 700 low of the ggeM and euro at 132 -168 hrs is STUNNING

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The GFS solutions would have inevitably ended up a disappointment anyway, regardless of what the QPF said in the extended range. I am glad this is now the new way to see a monster...because this way is legit.

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FEB

I told you that the last 12 runs of the GFS were BS....

the 0z GFS shift here is BIG and the identical surFace and 850 and 700 low of the ggeM and euro at 132 -168 hrs is STUNNING

MAJOR agreement. The GFS is actually saying big hit now. It never was before. ;)

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FEB

I told you that the last 12 runs of the GFS were BS....

the 0z GFS shift here is BIG and the identical surFace and 850 and 700 low of the ggeM and euro at 132 -168 hrs is STUNNING

Dont the big ones usually get modeled pretty well from longer than average time ranges? I seem to recall hearing this was the case.

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Here's the free visual from eWall. This is definitely one of those "all time" type model runs; and it's pretty exciting to see the agreement on the potential amongst the other globals. Still pretty far out in the medium range, though, especially with the Euro being slower. We've got a ways to go but the indications are great so far.

f168.gif

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Guest someguy

Yes you did. Do you believe the Euro and GGEM now? I believe the Euro makes much more sense then the GFS did in trying to bomb this out.

yes that is the point

folks have got to realize that I wnat this to happen ...

I always have

But I dont want another DEC 18-19

I want to be able to see it...

learn from...

see the Models handle it

see what is similar and what is not

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Guest someguy

Dont the big ones usually get modeled pretty well from longer than average time ranges? I seem to recall hearing this was the case.

ALWAYS

JAN 1996 7.5 days out

jan 2004 se new englansd 10 days out

feb 2003 7.5 days out

dec 2003 6 days out

dec 2000 7 days out

FEB 11 2006

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Earthlight, the GGEM at 12z FRI was SW MO, similar to the GFS ensembles. The middle of the road speed still is a MECS/HECS.

:devilsmiley:

I'm trying my best to remain calm but some of these solutions have the snow weenie inside of me going crazy..especially given the superensemble height anomaly support and upper air pattern being advertised.

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The GFS is almost certainly right in that aspect....the question is by much how much.

Yes, it is likely to be closer to the speed. However, the middle of the road speed, offered by the GFS ensemble mean and the GGEM, signify enough time to go boom. However, that would probably lead to a less historic event, haha.

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On the other hand snowgoose/all...

In what situation would a slower solution actually work out? Or in other words, a bias to be slow actually be more correct in the end?

It would be when a massive -NAO block is being absorbed into the huge PNA ridge. That would cause the s/w(s) to slow down, appreciably...but by how much?

Over the next several GFS runs, it is imperative to watch the speed trends in the s/w.

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Yes, it is likely to be closer to the speed. However, the middle of the road speed, offered by the GFS ensemble mean and the GGEM, signify enough time to go boom. However, that would probably lead to a less historic event, haha.

My experience is that the SW bias of the Euro tends to hurt its forecasts over the Plains and Midwest more than it does its eventual solutions on the East Coast...alot of times it seems to still get the eventual idea right.

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On the other hand snowgoose/all...

In what situation would a slower solution actually work out? Or in other words, a bias to be slow actually be more correct in the end?

It would be when a massive -NAO block is being absorbed into the huge PNA ridge. That would cause the s/w(s) to slow down, appreciably...but by how much?

Over the next several GFS runs, it is imperative to watch the speed trends in the s/w.

that is very interesting, and i would have to agree given the extent of the block! il be watching for that trend for sure..Slower is better, got it...:snowman:

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My experience is that the SW bias of the Euro tends to hurt its forecasts over the Plains and Midwest more than it does its eventual solutions on the East Coast...alot of times it seems to still get the eventual idea right.

I agree, 9 times out of 10...especially in progressive patterns or patterns fueled by cool ENSO. However, if I were going to slow things down, I can only think of one way...massive massive ridging.

We've got that and that has to be respected. I think I'll go with the middle of the road solutions for now, factoring in both points. This means GGEM solution is still plausible.

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