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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/20/2010


Dr No

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Guest someguy

I don't think anyone in the MA, at least, should be discouraged this far away

upper levels look darn good at this range and a little tweaking will make huge differences in qpf

not sure I agree...

if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????)

this run of the GFS aint great

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Why is this a bad run? and why would any EC MA resident be discouraged? :axe:

Exactly. We're still more than 5 days away from the storm and people aren't happy because the GFS doesn't have the bullseye in their backyard. It still has the storm in a close enough location with PLENTY of time for tweaking.

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not sure I agree...

if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????)

this run of the GFS aint great

no one with any sense then, because no one with any sense could possibly think a 6 day+ forecast showing 12"+ on the GFS could ever be correct

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not sure I agree...

if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????)

this run of the GFS aint great

I think the sensible and positive here are not living from run to run, but rather focused and encouraged by the upper level pattern set up. Some snow is looking likely now, and the potential still very much exists for something big if things come together right. So while this GFS ain't great, it still maintains hope that something big can and will happen.

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This is a very nice solution for most of us in the Mid Atlantic. Light to moderate snow most of the day on Christmas day totaling ~.5" QPF. To get really micro, at 132 it looks like it might briefly mix with some IP on the west end of Richmond and would almost certainly mix on the east end of town at the airport.

This solution even looks to bring snow all the way to the beach between 138 and 144. Again, a very nice solution for the lower Mid Atlantic through 150.

After that, if you believe in the adage that it snows where it's snowed before, this solution would provide more credence to that as NEPA, NJ, CT, and Boston would miss out once again.

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H5 setup is very favorable..and it gets it's act together quickly by 144 hrs. Nice setup for the M/A being advertised by a good amount of guidance right now.

I don't think anyone in the MA, at least, should be discouraged this far away

upper levels look darn good at this range and a little tweaking will make huge differences in qpf

I agree. It's still too far out and I think the 00z H5 looks good for a storm.

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gfs_500_150s.gif

The western ridge reminds me of a certain other storm, which I shall not mention.

Oooo you're right, looks pretty lackluster there. It looks better on earlier frames to tell you the truth, but that does look a lot like the ridge for the storm of which you speak. One thing I do like is that closed 526dm contour sitting over VA, screaming potential. If only that trough wasn't so broad :thumbsdown:

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Guest someguy

no one with any sense then, because no one with any sense could possibly think a 6 day+ forecast showing 12"+ on the GFS could ever be correct

Why is this a bad run? and why would any EC MA resident be discouraged?

Exactly. We're still more than 5 days away from the storm and people aren't happy because the GFS doesn't have the bullseye in their backyard. It still has the storm in a close enough location with PLENTY of time for tweaking.

um.... THAT is NOT my Point

there are other issues here besides the HOW MUCH FOR PHILLY? mentality that you and some others have

yes no one is " screwed over " on this run

Granted

MY point has been that IF you go back to the 12z thread there were several questions ...some directed at me... about why I was NOT impressed with the amazing consistency of the the last 10+ runs of the GFS

and

WHY I did NOT think the GFS solution was Viable as even a a POSSIBLE outcome

there is a PINNEND thread aboutt NO?

so My comments in this 0z GFS were directed more towards getting one readers to see the issues that I have and will always have with the GFS

on east coast snowstorm threats PAST 84 hours

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Guest someguy

If the GFS scenario ends up being correct, I'd cut the QPF down on the north side and make the gradient much tighter.

FM fast Mover... always cut the qpf by 30%

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Guest someguy

I dont see how this comes up the coast with the 00z H5 depiction at 150 hrs. Too broad a trough IMO.

this is what Most of the Model data not called GFS has been saying for 3 days

and it matches the seasonal pattern of systems NOT being able to turn the corner to easily

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FM fast Mover... always cut the qpf by 30%

I agree and the gradient to the north would likely be tight. Although, this won't be as tight as your classic CAD/overrunning setup. This will be more about when the coastal intensifies and the moisture consolidates to the coast.

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