weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good enough for a good night's sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 150 hrs 500 low is right over heartb of VA-- halfway between RIC -DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS bows to the Euro. Meh, light snow on Christmas better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't think anyone in the MA, at least, should be discouraged this far away upper levels look darn good at this range and a little tweaking will make huge differences in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 WOW DT land gets around 6 " maybe more IF it stays all snow Good enough for a good night's sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Why is this a bad run? and why would any EC MA resident be discouraged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't think anyone in the MA, at least, should be discouraged this far away upper levels look darn good at this range and a little tweaking will make huge differences in qpf not sure I agree... if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????) this run of the GFS aint great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 actually, a little more falls after 150 hrs so total is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Why is this a bad run? and why would any EC MA resident be discouraged? Exactly. We're still more than 5 days away from the storm and people aren't happy because the GFS doesn't have the bullseye in their backyard. It still has the storm in a close enough location with PLENTY of time for tweaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This run gives DCA 4-8 inches of snow on Christmas. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 not sure I agree... if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????) this run of the GFS aint great no one with any sense then, because no one with any sense could possibly think a 6 day+ forecast showing 12"+ on the GFS could ever be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 not sure I agree... if anyone was hoping that the last 12 runs of the OP GFS amazing consistency was going to be correct and there was going tom be as Mitch Volks said something like 1978 or 1996...>????) this run of the GFS aint great I think the sensible and positive here are not living from run to run, but rather focused and encouraged by the upper level pattern set up. Some snow is looking likely now, and the potential still very much exists for something big if things come together right. So while this GFS ain't great, it still maintains hope that something big can and will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The storm is still there, the outcome remains uncertain, I am in for a couple of more rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is a very nice solution for most of us in the Mid Atlantic. Light to moderate snow most of the day on Christmas day totaling ~.5" QPF. To get really micro, at 132 it looks like it might briefly mix with some IP on the west end of Richmond and would almost certainly mix on the east end of town at the airport. This solution even looks to bring snow all the way to the beach between 138 and 144. Again, a very nice solution for the lower Mid Atlantic through 150. After that, if you believe in the adage that it snows where it's snowed before, this solution would provide more credence to that as NEPA, NJ, CT, and Boston would miss out once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Widespread light snow for Christmas Day. What else could you want. Not all of them are going to be monster storms. As depicted this is a moderate event for the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 H5 setup is very favorable..and it gets it's act together quickly by 144 hrs. Nice setup for the M/A being advertised by a good amount of guidance right now. I don't think anyone in the MA, at least, should be discouraged this far away upper levels look darn good at this range and a little tweaking will make huge differences in qpf I agree. It's still too far out and I think the 00z H5 looks good for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The western ridge reminds me of a certain other storm, which I shall not mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 HM is going for New Year's storm or is it a few days before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This would be a very nice/low end moderate event for us folks in western Virginia . What could could you ask for on Christmas day. BTW.....HI DAN! Good to see yous till bouncing around in our threads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The western ridge reminds me of a certain other storm, which I shall not mention. Oooo you're right, looks pretty lackluster there. It looks better on earlier frames to tell you the truth, but that does look a lot like the ridge for the storm of which you speak. One thing I do like is that closed 526dm contour sitting over VA, screaming potential. If only that trough wasn't so broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 WOW DT land gets around 6 " maybe more IF it stays all snow St Mary's Co, MD scores again if all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Hm storm is 62 and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The Hm storm is 62 and rain? SPC may have us in the slight risk, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The HM storm? LOL I have no storm guys, sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the GFS scenario ends up being correct, I'd cut the QPF down on the north side and make the gradient much tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 no one with any sense then, because no one with any sense could possibly think a 6 day+ forecast showing 12"+ on the GFS could ever be correct Why is this a bad run? and why would any EC MA resident be discouraged? Exactly. We're still more than 5 days away from the storm and people aren't happy because the GFS doesn't have the bullseye in their backyard. It still has the storm in a close enough location with PLENTY of time for tweaking. um.... THAT is NOT my Point there are other issues here besides the HOW MUCH FOR PHILLY? mentality that you and some others have yes no one is " screwed over " on this run Granted MY point has been that IF you go back to the 12z thread there were several questions ...some directed at me... about why I was NOT impressed with the amazing consistency of the the last 10+ runs of the GFS and WHY I did NOT think the GFS solution was Viable as even a a POSSIBLE outcome there is a PINNEND thread aboutt NO? so My comments in this 0z GFS were directed more towards getting one readers to see the issues that I have and will always have with the GFS on east coast snowstorm threats PAST 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the GFS scenario ends up being correct, I'd cut the QPF down on the north side and make the gradient much tighter. FM fast Mover... always cut the qpf by 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I dont see how this comes up the coast with the 00z H5 depiction at 150 hrs. Too broad a trough IMO. this is what Most of the Model data not called GFS has been saying for 3 days and it matches the seasonal pattern of systems NOT being able to turn the corner to easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FM fast Mover... always cut the qpf by 30% I agree and the gradient to the north would likely be tight. Although, this won't be as tight as your classic CAD/overrunning setup. This will be more about when the coastal intensifies and the moisture consolidates to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow @ GGEM... Surface low over southern Arkansas @ 108 and over N Alabama @ 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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