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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/20/2010


Dr No

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That's how I see it, not sure what it means but it is different.

To me, the NAM would imply cold air holding in a bit more than on the GFS (18z), and one could make a strong argument for a further south track....but there is so many other significant differences, that I agree how it translates out is difficult to see.

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To me, the NAM would imply cold air holding in a bit more than on the GFS (18z), and one could make a strong argument for a further south track....but there is so many other significant differences, that I agree how it translates out is difficult to see.

The 72 hr GFS has the look that it will have a more suppressed look. the vort in the west is a little south and the heights over the east are lower. If it goes back colder, it will give me something interesting to write about.

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The 72 hr GFS has the look that it will have a more suppressed look. the vort in the west is a little south and the heights over the east are lower. If it goes back colder, it will give me something interesting to write about.

Plus you have a 1038 High pushing down from the north. I'm not sure it was that strong on 18Z.

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Guest someguy

0z 120 hrs surface Low and 850 WAAAAAAAY further south than 18z gfs valid at 126 hrs

0z Low in over central TN 18z it was over KY

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Guest someguy

Dave, there is a closed h5 vort in SE IA at 108... is the vort from the northern stream for the phase?

BIG ISSUE HERE at 108 hrs the northern vort max is WAAAAAAY back NORTH of Montna

at 18z that vort max was already in IA about to phase with the lead one

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Guest someguy

Actually look like it might not do anything at all? Just slide OTS?

12 straight run runs of the op GFS showing a BOMB with large areas of heavy snow and High winds over DSC to BOS

then this....

there is reaosn why I dont RELY -- the key word here is reply -- on the operational GFS Model for SECS MECS HECS event past 72 or 84 hrs

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