beanskip Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Even comparing the 0z NAM to the 0z GFS at 36 hours (more in the Nam's sweetspot? -- if there is such a thing) shows significant differences. If we laugh at what the GFS shows at hour 384 why are we discussing the Nam at hour 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That's how I see it, not sure what it means but it is different. To me, the NAM would imply cold air holding in a bit more than on the GFS (18z), and one could make a strong argument for a further south track....but there is so many other significant differences, that I agree how it translates out is difficult to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 To me, the NAM would imply cold air holding in a bit more than on the GFS (18z), and one could make a strong argument for a further south track....but there is so many other significant differences, that I agree how it translates out is difficult to see. The 72 hr GFS has the look that it will have a more suppressed look. the vort in the west is a little south and the heights over the east are lower. If it goes back colder, it will give me something interesting to write about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 SW is weaker on 0z GFS. Slightly colder on the east coast. 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_090l.gif Vort is in NE New Mexico at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I concur that it will be likely a bit further south. Heights lower on the EC, wave still open at 90. Looks like it will probablystill attempt a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 72 hr GFS has the look that it will have a more suppressed look. the vort in the west is a little south and the heights over the east are lower. If it goes back colder, it will give me something interesting to write about. Plus you have a 1038 High pushing down from the north. I'm not sure it was that strong on 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The vort and surface low location are similar to 18z, but everything is a little faster and has less northern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z GFS has the main s/w really far south very much like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Plus you have a 1038 High pushing down from the north. I'm not sure it was that strong on 18Z. Was the same, but is slightly further south into the Canadian prairie provinces on 00z, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0z 120 hrs surface Low and 850 WAAAAAAAY further south than 18z gfs valid at 126 hrs 0z Low in over central TN 18z it was over KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1007 L, as opposed to 1002 at 114 on 0z. Slightly further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Vort is further south at 114. Should be good for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, this one is a good bit different from the 18z run. So far so good at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Northern stream is not phasing through 126 hrs..I would be surprised if this came up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Dave, there is a closed h5 vort in SE IA at 108... is the vort from the northern stream for the phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 132 hrs low is over hatteras things are going the euro's way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nice hit for DC 126-135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Really trying to turn the corner at 138 hrs but the H5 depiction is just a little disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Dave, there is a closed h5 vort in SE IA at 108... is the vort from the northern stream for the phase? BIG ISSUE HERE at 108 hrs the northern vort max is WAAAAAAY back NORTH of Montna at 18z that vort max was already in IA about to phase with the lead one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nice hit for DC 126-135 and who esle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually look like it might not do anything at all? Just slide OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What's up with the positioning of the 700mb low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nice hit for DC 126-135 The QPF fields don't really seem to support that... unless around .25 is a good hit for DC through 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 H5 setup is very favorable..and it gets it's act together quickly by 144 hrs. Nice setup for the M/A being advertised by a good amount of guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 COMPARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The QPF fields don't really seem to support that... unless around .25 is a good hit for DC through 132 Looks closer to .5 by 150-156 hrs...not a bad hit for Christmas especially. I wouldn't raise your expectations that high especially at this range. The H5 setup is certainly not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually look like it might not do anything at all? Just slide OTS? 12 straight run runs of the op GFS showing a BOMB with large areas of heavy snow and High winds over DSC to BOS then this.... there is reaosn why I dont RELY -- the key word here is reply -- on the operational GFS Model for SECS MECS HECS event past 72 or 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks closer to .5 by 150-156 hrs...not a bad hit for Christmas especially. I wouldn't raise your expectations that high especially at this range. The H5 setup is certainly not bad. True, true. I was just commenting on what you said 126-135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I dont see how this comes up the coast with the 00z H5 depiction at 150 hrs. Too broad a trough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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