Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM has initialized and all looks well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I will hazard a guess that the shortwave that is about 600 miles off the Northern California coast is the one that will be the storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can anyone give me a quick reminder of what times the GFS and NAM runs come out? I know that 0z would be 7pm EST, but I'm assuming the runs don't actually come out til later. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Can anyone give me a quick reminder of what times the GFS and NAM runs come out? I know that 0z would be 7pm EST, but I'm assuming the runs don't actually come out til later. Thanks NAM starts around 8:45 PM ET and the GFS Starts around 10:30 PM ET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like maybe some measurable snow will make it east of the mountains with the clipper on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 My heavens. Is that little monster off the west coast going to give us a White Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 My heavens. Is that little monster off the west coast going to give us a White Wet Christmas? I believe that is... and your post has been fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I believe that is... and your post has been fixed. Nice. What's a little shift of a Canadian high among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Even on the 12Z GFS, that H85 low gets awfully close...still without that cold high in Eastern Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pretty amazing differences in the 500 on the 18z GFS at 84 and the 0z NAM at 78. Only thing is, I don't know whether its good or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like a few inches are possible all the way over to NYC middle of the week with the system coming off the ocean W to E.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pretty amazing differences in the 500 on the 18z GFS at 84 and the 0z NAM at 78. Only thing is, I don't know whether its good or not. yea i was just about to post that-- crazy difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yea i was just about to post that-- crazy difference The NAM would certainly make it dig more I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The biggest diferences i see in those 2 maps is the shortwave digs more on the NAM, and the confluence over the NE is stronger on the NAM..(maybe due to the inverted trough?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its not crazy differences, not quite sure what you guys are noticing that youd say they have "crazy differences" lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This has been a really slow to develop thread. I suppose everyone is waiting for the GFS/Euro to come out later. Oh well, off to bed for me. I'll find out early tomorrow morning before work if it stays interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its not crazy differences, not quite sure what you guys are noticing that youd say they have "crazy differences" lol... yea they look identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yea they look identical LOL! That is a huge difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its not crazy differences, not quite sure what you guys are noticing that youd say they have "crazy differences" lol... 540 height contour exits the EC near LI at 90 on 18z GFS vs. the 00z NAM's run exiting off the NC coast.....that's a pretty crazy difference....amongst other sizeable differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Look like the NAM is slower and more diggy and the heights get pretty pumped up out in front. Lots more energy in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yea they look identical Are you being sarcastic? No 500mb map from two models is going to look identical, but the major features are in relatively the same position on both maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Are you being sarcastic? No 500mb map from two models is going to look identical, but the major features are in relatively the same position on both maps.... i agree, the differences from the 84 hr panel arent that drastic, the overall setup is the same..Shortwave digging to China, heights building in the midwest, Pac low off the coast.... all is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yea they look identical The differences off the east coast are interesting. Hopefully the stronger vortex can help hold the low a little more south. It's hard to know how that would extrapolate out in time but there are differences. I'm not sure exactly what they mean but that's often the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Are you being sarcastic? No 500mb map from two models is going to look identical, but the major features are in relatively the same position on both maps.... Nobody claimed identical. The height field over the east coast and the wavelength of the central US ridge are vastly different....even for a 3.5 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nobody claimed identical. The height field over the east coast and the wavelength of the central US ridge are vastly different....even for a 3.5 day lead. That's how I see it, not sure what it means but it is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Could it have such a different solution simply since it is the 84 hour nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OT, but that's going to be quite a snowy scene in Minneapolis on MNF tomorrow night based on hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If we laugh at what the GFS shows at hour 384 why are we discussing the Nam at hour 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Could it have such a different solution simply since it is the 84 hour nam? I don't get into "stereotyping" models, when they're run, or other generalizations....it always boils down to some physical process that a model sees or doesn't see, to create such diverse outputs at such lead times. There are many setups where such outputs would be reasonably similar at these leads, and then you have this pattern where many shortwaves are circling/interacting around a closed h500 low, and ejecting into a pattern that is sensitive to minute pertabations.....thus run to run and model to model inconsistencies/differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If we laugh at what the GFS shows at hour 384 why are we discussing the Nam at hour 84? Because if one has understanding of models and their error tendencies, value can still be gained in crafting a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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