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Warm season 2014 thunderstorm thread


famartin

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Nothing strong or severe last night. Lots of lightning. 0.81" bringing the July total to 3.34".

 

Pretty much the same story here. I'd say the storms that rolled through Lansdale were strong but not severe. Still, a very impressive display by mother nature last night with non-stop lightening and thunder from 8:00 on. I picked up just under an inch of rain.

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Welp, another short but very rainy storm is going by right now to up the totals. I got 0.79 inches from last nights storm but I'm surprised it wasn't more. And the lightning was very frequent, but I didn't see any CG, just lots and lots of flashes. Though, there must of been a CG I didn't see as my TV shut off right after one of the flashes. At least I was able to go back to sleep at around 3 AM! 

 

Welp, after the first pop up formed, there are two other storms behind it. Anyways, storm total is now 0.86. Looks like a train is forming. Meh.

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Everything NW....at least for now.

Yeah over me :(  It's finally stopped here, I see the NWS has put out a flash flood warning for my area, where up to 2-3" has fallen.  It's been so wet here since the drought of 1999 I wish we could have one here and send the rain to places that need it! 

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Yeah over me :(  It's finally stopped here, I see the NWS has put out a flash flood warning for my area, where up to 2-3" has fallen.  It's been so wet here since the drought of 1999 I wish we could have one here and send the rain to places that need it! 

 

Everything down here either doesn't develop or fades out when it "arrives"....

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Thoughts on Tuesday, anyone?


 


Of course I'm a severe snob now, so I'll poo-poo pretty much anything in the Northeast, but it actually looks like a pretty decent set-up for central PA or anywhere that gets into the warm sector.


 


Trough in the Great Lakes, fairly strong jet (for early-mid August anyway) entering, triggering cyclogenesis over Michigan with that cyclone deepening about 8 mb over the day as it moves into Ontario, and then also a rather strong LLJ, albeit all north of the warm front where it isn't useful.  What stands out attm is the orientation of the boundary and the potential for backed flow ahead of it.  Most of our summer thunderstorm set-ups feature a weak/diffuse zonally-oriented cold front slowly drifting south across PA.  Per the 0z GFS, we have a north-south-oriented cold front, with shear vectors perpendicular to it allowing, potentially, for some discrete storm organization.  And with pressure falls in the area throughout the day, we'd actually have backed flow in the warm sector.  The strongest mid-level flow is lagging behind, which is a negating factor, but you still have 25-30 kts at 500 mb, and surface wind vectors east of south, creating 30+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear.  Again, nothing epic, but pretty interesting for these parts.


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Thoughts on Tuesday, anyone?

 

Of course I'm a severe snob now, so I'll poo-poo pretty much anything in the Northeast, but it actually looks like a pretty decent set-up for central PA or anywhere that gets into the warm sector.

 

Trough in the Great Lakes, fairly strong jet (for early-mid August anyway) entering, triggering cyclogenesis over Michigan with that cyclone deepening about 8 mb over the day as it moves into Ontario, and then also a rather strong LLJ, albeit all north of the warm front where it isn't useful.  What stands out attm is the orientation of the boundary and the potential for backed flow ahead of it.  Most of our summer thunderstorm set-ups feature a weak/diffuse zonally-oriented cold front slowly drifting south across PA.  Per the 0z GFS, we have a north-south-oriented cold front, with shear vectors perpendicular to it allowing, potentially, for some discrete storm organization.  And with pressure falls in the area throughout the day, we'd actually have backed flow in the warm sector.  The strongest mid-level flow is lagging behind, which is a negating factor, but you still have 25-30 kts at 500 mb, and surface wind vectors east of south, creating 30+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear.  Again, nothing epic, but pretty interesting for these parts.

 

Not as impressed. Modeled CAPE is only around 100 J/KG, if we had 500-1000 J/KG CAPE a more substantial threat would be present given the favorable shear. 

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