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Warm season 2014 thunderstorm thread


famartin

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I found another video of what I experienced earlier this month and especially Tonight. It sounds like you are being shelled with artillery.

 

Hard to tell on my phone but that video does sound like shock and awe on Baghdad.

 

nice pics again, bbasile.

Thank you.

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Seems like Sunday/Monday will be an interesting day with the storms...

 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1406476058564

 

 

...WV INTO PA AND NJ LATE...
A SEVERE MCS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OUT OF THE MDT RISK AREA...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOW TRACK...AIDED BY A
STRONG VORT MAX AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE LOW.

...NRN VA...MD...DE...PA...NJ LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...
AN MCS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SOMEWHERE NEAR WV SUN MORNING...AND
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER IT WILL PERSIST INTO VA AND MD DURING THE DAY.
EVEN IF IT DOES NOT REMAIN INTACT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TIME...AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THEM. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN CELLULAR
STORM MODE AND MODESTLY-LOOPING HODOGRAPHS. THERE IS A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN SEVERAL MODELS ACROSS MD...ERN VA AND DE NEAR
00Z.

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SUNDAY: CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. TWO POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONVECTION MAY BE IN
PROGRESS BY THIS POINT TO START THE DAY. THE FIRST IS LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH VERY
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO A MCS. THESE AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MORNING MAY
REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z HIRES NAM. SEVERAL PAST GFS RUNS
HAVE HINTED AT THIS AS WELL. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
(ECMWF,GFS,CMC,UKMET 00Z RUNS) AND THE RGEM GENERATE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL EVENING.

850/925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FAIR SHOT AT 90
FOR KPHL. HOWEVER BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL STAY AT OR JUST UNDER THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WHICH IS BACK IN THE MID 80`S FOR MANY.

IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE
EVEN FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN TERMS OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE SPC SREF PLUMES, FROM 700-3000 J/KG
CAPE AT PHL FOR 21Z ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-50 KNOTS IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE SREF. IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH WITH THE CORRESPONDING SHEAR TO SUGGEST A
HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS. PW VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
GRIDS AFTER 18Z. USED ELEMENTS FROM THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF
FOR QPF. STAYED WITH LOW LIKELY POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
PRESENT IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.


SUNDAY NIGHT: THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS LIKELY ALREADY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MCS TO OUR WEST. THIS MCS IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CLOUD COVER/ PREVIOUS
STORMS) WITH MODEST SHEAR LEADING TO A CONTINUED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ENHANCED WORDING AS WELL IN THIS
PERIOD. CONTINUED LOW END LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MCS`S. 00Z HIRES NAM IMPLIES
MAIN DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD WHICH ADDED HESITATION
TO INCREASING POPS. FOR QPF USED BOTH THE WPC QPF AND THE 21Z SREF.
STAYED CLOSE TO THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES.

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So, no one is mentioning the fact that there's a slight risk for today? Hi-res NAM shows some pretty nice cells passing through this evening.

Yeah, it's been a bit quiet. I'm honestly excited for today because it seems that some ( if I have been hearing correctly ) supercells might be able to form. I'd love to see some of the clouds. 

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I hope we can get a storm before sunset, but I think it's too late for that. Though the sun has been out for a lot of the day, and the parameters are pretty good, no storms have popped up around my area. Sorry, just a bit worried about the night-time event, as night-time events aren't nearly as good as storms that come just after or during sunset.

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I hope we can get a storm before sunset, but I think it's too late for that. Though the sun has been out for a lot of the day, and the parameters are pretty good, but no storms have popped up around my area. Sorry, just a bit worried about the night-time event, as night-time events aren't nearly as good as storms that come just after or during sunset.

This not a typical summer "heating of the day" set up.

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