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Warm season 2014 thunderstorm thread


famartin

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Witnessed an unreal downpour at around 8pm in Blue Bell. 

 

Meanwhile I guess we Jersey people shouldn't have been complaining about our dry spell this month, lol. 

 

Shelf leading the severe t'storm in Gloucester County which would eventually become tornado warned.  

 

Where is that taken from? 

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Wow...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-

055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530-

NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-

WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-

BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-

EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-

LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...

CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...

WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...

NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...

ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...

OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...

POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...

MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN

930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING

EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING...

THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR

90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM AND

THEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.

THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL

FOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE.

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OF

RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL

FOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURRED

YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREA

FOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE

INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIA

AND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS

THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS IN

SOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES.

POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE.

THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM.

HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

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Maybe the survey team just didn't venture too deep into the woods? Lol, if you look at the NJ Tornado Project map, there is a huge gap in the area where the funnel was spotted surrounding Wharton State Forest. That area is heavily forested pine barrens and probably one of the largest stretches of unpopulated land in the state; I'm sure there have been touchdowns back there that have gone undetected. 

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000

NOUS41 KPHI 151403

PNSPHI

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-

055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151815-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (NO TORNADO) IN BURLINGTON COUNTY

YESTERDAY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TRACKED ACROSS BURLINGTON COUNTY NEW JERSEY FROM

NEAR MEDFORD TO SOUTHAMPTON BETWEEN 8:15 AND 8:30 PM LAST NIGHT

JULY 14TH. SCATTERED FALLEN TREES AND BRANCHES, POWER LINES, AND A

DISPLACED IRRIGATION PIPE WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHAMPTON AREA.

THIS DAMAGE IS CONSISTENT WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS. EYEWITNESS REPORTS

DID NOT INDICATE A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

THE NWS THANKS BURLINGTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL

WHO HELPED WITH TODAY/S DAMAGE SURVEY AND THE EYEWITNESSES WH0

TALKED WITH US ALONG THE WAY.

$$

JJM/GAINES/MEOLA

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The other image was confirmed to be fake. NWS confirms no tornado, straight line winds.

So it is a fake. However, the other two images look to match up pretty well.

Maybe the survey team just didn't venture too deep into the woods? Lol, if you look at the NJ Tornado Project map, there is a huge gap in the area where the funnel was spotted surrounding Wharton State Forest. That area is heavily forested pine barrens and probably one of the largest stretches of unpopulated land in the state; I'm sure there have been touchdowns back there that have gone undetected.

Possible. Would like to hear from the NWS about the survey.

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new MCD

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERN
VA...NE NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151723Z - 151900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NC
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK
CITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SRN
AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SRN PA SWD INTO VA AND NRN NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA IS
SUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRST
IS LOCATED IN SRN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS FROM WASHINGTON DC
NNEWD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATING
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANY
SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
COLD POOL ORGANIZING.

..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014
 
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