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April 27-29 Severe Threat


snowlover2

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There was a train derailment in Laura IL, between GBG and PIA just north of I-72. ~25 cars blown off the tracks which caused a bunch of power poles and lines to come down. Also there was a semi blown off of I-39 near Minonk, which is near where the Washington tornado crossed the interstate.

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We left Valpo at 9:30 this morning, went to CMI, cut west and pulled off for a while between SPG and Jacksoville.  We then moved south and intercepted the one dominant cell moving out of the northern suburbs of St. Louis just as it became TOR-warned, and stayed on it all the way to Mattoon as it congealed into the line of storms to its north, but maintained supercell structure.

 

In my naivety, I just assumed everything between I-70 and I-80 in IL was outwash plain, but that was some pretty terrible terrain down there.  We only got occasional glimpses at the base, but did see some broad rotation at one point, lots of rising scud, and perhaps a brief wall cloud.  Farther east once it had congealed, we got this look at it (below).  It was pretty cool to see an entire supercell structure contained within a bigger complex.  We essentially had a horizon-to-horizon shelf cloud with a supercell embedded in the middle.

 

DSCN1538.jpg

 

So overall a pretty good chase, terrain excluded, despite no tornado.

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Clearing nicely. Destabilization looking probable.

The instability will mostly come from cold pool advection aloft rather than heating below... So for once cloud debris aren't something we need to worry about much (so of course they clear nicely this time)

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Thus far, still cloudy at FNT but the radar echos have all moved to the northeast, putting us in the dry slot now. My P&C grid still says 100% Showers today, I don't think that'll verify. Our high today says 68.

 

After I finally knocked myself out after the Birmingham close call (I really thought Bham was done for), I was woke up sometime in the overnight by a steady pounding of hail on the window for about a minute. Not sure how much or how big, but it was loud.

 

I see the SPC D1 has SEMI in 15% for wind and hail.

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Thus far, still cloudy at FNT but the radar echos have all moved to the northeast, putting us in the dry slot now. My P&C grid still says 100% Showers today, I don't think that'll verify. Our high today says 68.

 

After I finally knocked myself out after the Birmingham close call (I really thought Bham was done for), I was woke up sometime in the overnight by a steady pounding of hail on the window for about a minute. Not sure how much or how big, but it was loud.

 

I see the SPC D1 has SEMI in 15% for wind and hail.

 

FWIW, they cancelled the spotter training class up there in Flint due to "the possibility of severe weather."

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Tornado Warning for Stephenson County ( Freeport)

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
ILC177-291715-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0009.140429T1644Z-140429T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1144 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STEPHENSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1138 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORRESTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SPORADIC DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...GERMAN VALLEY...CEDARVILLE...LENA...OAKDALE NATURE
PRESERVE...ALBERTUS AIRPORT...BOLTON...DAKOTA DORNINK AIRPORT...
SCIOTO MILLS...ELEROY...DAMASCUS...RED OAK...BUENA VISTA...MC
CONNELL...ORANGEVILLE...LAKE LEAQUANA STATE PARK AND ONECO.

 

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For what it's worth, SPC mesoanalysis has 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE in NW Ohio, with 40-70 knots winds at 500mb. That's pretty nuts considering it was all cold, all the time for a while.

Yeah absolutely beautiful and breezy day however tons of cumulus towers getting going. Definitely have a chance for some good severe weather today

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Amazingly, looks like a few discrete low-topped supercells moving over Lake Erie into SW Ontario. Storms are riding the warm front into good low-level shear environment and heading into better backed surface winds. Lack of instability may kill these off depending on how detached from the warm front they become, but LCLs could easily support some surface based storms.

 

Some broad rotation is present on the velocity scans.

 

w1g4x.png

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The wife and I just went out to grab a quick bite. Right now, 74 and comfortable, not muggy at all. Plenty of cu floating around but only one, way to the north, looked like it was really attempting to tower up. Nice breeze, I may add. Would have been a nice fishing day, if not for the breeze.

 

I see a few showers popping up along the IN/OH border. The west side of the state has had some persistent showers, and a few popped south of Windsor over the lake. I guess we wait and see what sundown and nocturnal jet rouse up.

 

In the meantime, I suppose a nice walk would be in order to enjoy the nice day and burn off the fish & chips!

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I see a few showers popping up along the IN/OH border. The west side of the state has had some persistent showers, and a few popped south of Windsor over the lake.

 

Yeah, those are what probably would start devolping if they choose to. Still some low amounts of instability for them to work with, around 500j/kg MLCape and 500-1000j/kg SBCape over NW Ohio.

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We really have mixed out the low-level moisture which the models did forecast, that isn't to say we couldn't have a hailer or some strong winds but any tornado threat is all but gone with this one unless we advect in more low-level moisture.

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We really have mixed out the low-level moisture which the models did forecast, that isn't to say we couldn't have a hailer or some strong winds but any tornado threat is all but gone with this one unless we advect in more low-level moisture.

After seeing all the destruction down south last night, I won't feel all that bad if we don't see any tornadoes in MI.

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