Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Another good bump up in SPC SREF Sig Tor Ingredients. 45 contour now nudging past I-70. And dear god at those 90s popping in TN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Going off memory but it seems like there is stronger mid-level flow in northern IL on the 00z NAM compared to the last few runs. OTOH, it seems like the frontal position nudged south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Going off memory but it seems like there is stronger mid-level flow in northern IL on the 00z NAM compared to the last few runs. OTOH, it seems like the frontal position nudged south. You would be correct. Warm front is now just north of Bloomington, previous runs had it near Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 three discrete cells in C IL at 22z now on the 4 km NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 RPM at 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Also here's the Baron BAM (in-house WRF) model for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 NAM/GFS don't inspire a ton of confidence for tomorrow if you're playing the northern target. Questions about low level shear and the extent of the VBV issue not to mention the boundary location which has shifted south on new runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Probably going to head to Bloomington tomorrow, then decide whether to go west and play the triple point or go east where the better shear is located. Hopefully things are little clearer tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Previously there have been two plays: the WF/triple point, and the 850-700 mb speed max. The WF being modeled farther south opens up the possibility that these overlap, maybe somewhere around Decatur, and all that being under the let exit region of our jet, well, that makes things interesting. This isn't modeled yet, but it's an interesting possibility. A discrete storm feeding of low-level helicity from the WF and stronger mid/upper level winds from farther south could be a tornado-producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 RPM at 22z Also here's the Baron BAM (in-house WRF) model for tomorrow. These both seem like fast outliers. What's the model grid spacing on the BAM? It certainly paints an intriguing picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 With the warm front being modeled farther south tomorrow I'm more optimistic I won't get called into work and will be able to chase. Going with Gilbert from NIU, a NIU grad and another LOT forecaster. Plan is to head down to CMI in the morning and assess. Sent from my SCH-I535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 15km based off of an in house WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 With the warm front being modeled farther south tomorrow I'm more optimistic I won't get called into work and will be able to chase. Going with Gilbert from NIU, a NIU grad and another LOT forecaster. Plan is to head down to CMI in the morning and assess. Sent from my SCH-I535 What are your thoughts on the farther south placement tomorrow? Normally I'd be skeptical since the morning activity looks to make fairly steady progress north/east but with the system basically being stalled/occluded, just might not be much of an impetus to get that boundary northward quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Decent probs for IA/IL in new spc update 5% tornado 30% hail Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 SPC WRF looks like it tried to resolve a supercell riding I-70 from STL to HUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 a couple isolated pingers sounds like the best bet for those of us up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Looks like some good clearing over parts of IL already, could be an area of interest later today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 What are your thoughts on the farther south placement tomorrow? Normally I'd be skeptical since the morning activity looks to make fairly steady progress north/east but with the system basically being stalled/occluded, just might not be much of an impetus to get that boundary northward quickly?Still thinking it'll make it about to a BMI to north of LAF corridor, so into the southern LOT and IWX CWA. Right now right the front is on the doorstep of CMI and through PIA. We're heading down to SPI to assess options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Tomorrow looks like one of those days that might be capable of producing a lot of small hail with any stronger cells that develop. Freezing levels drop to around 6-8 thousand feet across much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Decided not to chase today based on the conditional environment and a 5 hour drive, but with that said I could see some decent storms in Illinois. Some favorable factors: -plenty of clearing to help with destabilization -impressive mid-level lapse rates -Near the nose of 500 jet -decent low level turning Unfavorable factors: -moisture is scoured (upper 50s dewpoints) with no recovery anticipated -veer/back/veer profile not great for discreet convection -winds continue to veer. This will lessen low level srh. With that being said...I would be chasing just south of the warm front where winds remain backed and LCL values are lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Decided not to chase today based on the conditional environment and a 5 hour drive, but with that said I could see some decent storms in Illinois. Some favorable factors: -plenty of clearing to help with destabilization -impressive mid-level lapse rates -Near the nose of 500 jet -decent low level turning Unfavorable factors: -moisture is scoured (upper 50s dewpoints) with no recovery anticipated -veer/back/veer profile not great for discreet convection -winds continue to veer. This will lessen low level srh. With that being said...I would be chasing just south of the warm front where winds remain backed and LCL values are lower Thanks for the analysis. Due to work obligations, I won't be driving down there. OT, but is your avatar Henryville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Recent AFD's for western IL. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014.UPDATE:Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2014Large cumulus field has recently developed across central Missouriin convergence zone just ahead of surface cold front/dryline.Environment is becoming increasing unstable with latest 16Z SPCMLCAPES showing 500-1000 J/kg over central and eastern Missouriwith little CINH right ahead of the front. Current thinking isthat thunderstorms will develop in the next hour or two rightahead of the the front and move east and northeast across easternMissouri into Illinois during the afternoon hours. Severe threatincluding hail and damaging winds continues given the increasinginstability and impressive deep layer shear. Also, 0-1km SRHvalues are currently between 100 and 250 across eastern Missouriand Illinois support an isolated tornado risk.Britt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1134 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A KTQE...KAWG...TO KCMI LINEAT 16Z AND IT HAS NOT MOVED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.TRENDS IN THE RAP INDICATE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOMENT OFTHIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IF CORRECT...ROUGHLY THENORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH THE HWY 20CORRIDOR POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 50.SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERMALS ARE ACTIVE WHICH HAS ALLOWED CUTO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI.CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS FROM CENTRAL INTOSOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST.PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD THEREFORE BE ON THE INCREASE STARTINGAROUND MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. Peoria met. says ILX is doing a 18z sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Thanks for the analysis. Due to work obligations, I won't be driving down there. OT, but is your avatar Henryville? Yes it is. Was about 3/4 mile south of henryville as it went through. Noticed spc took 5% tor west with this outlook. Not surprised given the slow progression of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Boundary has moved north of CMI. Winds flipped south with a significant temp increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 We're heading to MQB now. Stopped for gas near Peoria. In the warm frontal zone with low clouds and light winds and temps in mid 60s. When we were southeast of here 73 on the car readout with blue skies and scattered Cu. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Showers starting to pop between Hannibal MO and Jacksonville IL ahead of the storms back farther west. Currently booking it to Macomb IL. MD just issued. 80% watch probs. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Hopefully tomorrow will clear out enough for potential severe weather in the Lower GL. Seems almost foreign after months of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Hopefully tomorrow will clear out enough for potential severe weather in the Lower GL. Seems almost foreign after months of snow Severe storm parameters may get interesting tomorrow afternoon if it warms up to about 70F at IN/OH/MI borders. The NAM forecast sounding shows 10C/km lapse rate and 50 kt at 700mb tomorrow. That's about a 30kt difference between the surface and 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 DTX been hitting on the hail potential pretty hard the last few AFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Weird since the last time I heard thunder was during a snow storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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