Rjay Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Has there been a preliminary tornado count from the last 2 days yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 80/50 watch which is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN SC...NC...FAR SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 291726Z - 291900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ROTATING STORMS. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NC. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN A HAIL THREAT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SCNTRL NC AND NRN SC...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE WRF-HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET...CELLS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2 EVIDENT ON THE RALEIGH NC WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You can see how the MCS over the Gulf of Mexico is robbing most of the southeast of the best moisture advection. CAPE is slowly recovering but should be nowhere near the 3000 J/kg amounts that were observed over a large portion of the southeast yesterday. Since the flow is still backed across most of MS and AL, even though many of these areas will have mostly clear skies with plenty of daytime heating, all of that southerly flow will be advecting a less favorable thermodynamic environment further southeast in southern AL and GA where the environment has been worked over and will be stuck in clouds for a large portion of the day. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if CAPE recovery across Mississippi and Alabama has a hard time getting much above 1000 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Has there been a preliminary tornado count from the last 2 days yet? 36 on Sunday, 88 on Monday, 1 so far today. Preliminary numbers of course. 125 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 36 on Sunday, 88 on Monday, 1 so far today. Preliminary numbers of course. 125 so far. Filtered reports have the total at 100. 33 Sunday, 67 Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You can see how the MCS over the Gulf of Mexico is robbing most of the southeast of the best moisture advection. CAPE is slowly recovering but should be nowhere near the 3000 J/kg amounts that were observed over a large portion of the southeast yesterday. Since the flow is still backed across most of MS and AL, even though many of these areas will have mostly clear skies with plenty of daytime heating, all of that southerly flow will be advecting a less favorable thermodynamic environment further southeast in southern AL and GA where the environment has been worked over and will be stuck in clouds for a large portion of the day. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if CAPE recovery across Mississippi and Alabama has a hard time getting much above 1000 J/kg. There should still be a sweet spot of sufficient recovery in the JAN-MEI-PIB-MCB box this afternoon. Instability/theta-e axis running up through southwest MS to JAN with already 3000 j/kg of SBCAPE poking up into MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Filtered reports have the total at 100. 33 Sunday, 67 Monday. What is better to use filtered or unfiltered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Has there been a preliminary tornado count from the last 2 days yet? 36 on Sunday, 88 on Monday, 1 so far today. Preliminary numbers of course. 125 so far. Filtered reports have the total at 100. 33 Sunday, 67 Monday. Tornado count =/= tornado reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 You can see how the MCS over the Gulf of Mexico is robbing most of the southeast of the best moisture advection. CAPE is slowly recovering but should be nowhere near the 3000 J/kg amounts that were observed over a large portion of the southeast yesterday. Since the flow is still backed across most of MS and AL, even though many of these areas will have mostly clear skies with plenty of daytime heating, all of that southerly flow will be advecting a less favorable thermodynamic environment further southeast in southern AL and GA where the environment has been worked over and will be stuck in clouds for a large portion of the day. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if CAPE recovery across Mississippi and Alabama has a hard time getting much above 1000 J/kg. ...Except for the fact that flow from 850mb upward is from the SW, advecting air from the much less afflicted LA coast over the moderate risk area. Evidence of this return is already present across MS, with a strong moisture advection nose right up the middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 No doubt that some of these tornado reports are duplicate, but there may be new tornadoes discovered in the coming days to try to counter that. Really hard to know how many have actually occurred so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 What is better to use filtered or unfiltered? Filtered is marginally better, since it will trim reports based on the same lat/lon or time of occurrence. However, that doesn't mean a continuous tornado being reported multiple times along its path will not be including many times. So we'll have to wait for official surveys to be completed for a final count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Filtered is marginally better, since it will trim reports based on the same lat/lon or time of occurrence. However, that doesn't mean a continuous tornado being reported multiple times along its path will not be including many times. So we'll have to wait for official surveys to be completed for a final count. correct... I believe the tornado that went through the Mayflower, AR area sunday night had at least 8-10 reports along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Filtered is marginally better, since it will trim reports based on the same lat/lon or time of occurrence. However, that doesn't mean a continuous tornado being reported multiple times along its path will not be including many times. So we'll have to wait for official surveys to be completed for a final count. Thank you! If a tornado cycles and is reported several times, does it still count as multiple tornadoes or just one the whole time that super-cell produces a tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 ...Except for the fact that flow from 850mb upward is from the SW, advecting air from the much less afflicted LA coast over the moderate risk area. Evidence of this return is already present across MS, with a strong moisture advection nose right up the middle of the state. Surface theta-e climbing nicely across MS to go with the injection of steeper lapse rates aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Thank you! If a tornado cycles and is reported several times, does it still count as multiple tornadoes or just one the whole time that super-cell produces a tornado? Depends on if there is evidence of a continuous damage path. Typically a true occlusion and re-cycling will have separate damage paths, but sometimes there is no discernible break in path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Tornado warning for Beaufort, Craven , Jones and Pitt County NC, cell has a nice hook on it. edit: Funnel cloud and golf ball size hail reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Definetly priming up again, clearing out quickly over MS and AL. Not seeing any good initiation quite yet, but there is some stuff popping up over northern LA currently. Birmingham area might have to be on guard again if these storms continue taking the same northeast track they did last night. Meanwhile up here in NW OH, clear skies and very juicy outside. SBCape 1500-2000 j/kg, MLCape 1000 j/kg, and 50-60kt of shear at the 6km height. Thinking mostly surface-based stuff here Thoughts? Looking like winds and especially hail today to be the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Tornado watch for NC until 9:00 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 ...Except for the fact that flow from 850mb upward is from the SW, advecting air from the much less afflicted LA coast over the moderate risk area. Evidence of this return is already present across MS, with a strong moisture advection nose right up the middle of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Tornado on the ground near Cove City, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Just as a side for anyone watching Middle TN, OHX radar is down with unknown issues. TBNA, HTX, & HPX provide sufficient enough coverage to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Looks like the states of AM and CW need to watch out today, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Really not liking the look of what appears to be developing back in eastern LA and western MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Check out the 18Z LIX sounding! Holy cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Really not liking the look of what appears to be developing back in eastern LA and western MS. Things are firing right on schedule. Monitoring the cell cluster west of Brookhaven, MS. Starting to get better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 It's only been two hours or so since I last popped in before a class and ML CAPE has already made a pretty good comeback across Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 Check out the 18Z LIX sounding! Holy cow! can you explain what makes it "holy cow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Incredible effective shear magnitude in place over LA, MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 29, 2014 Share Posted April 29, 2014 NWS Mobile Radar is offline due to a lightning strike - just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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