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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN MS THROUGH NRN AL AND
SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 282222Z - 282345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO OUTBREAK UNDERWAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST MID EVENING. SEVERAL INTENSE AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE IN
PROGRESS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN MS INTO NRN AL. IN ADDITION TO
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SERN TN AND A
PDS TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SOON FOR THAT AREA.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A BAND OF STORMS PERSIST FROM SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN MS INTO NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. MANY OF THE
STORMS WITH THIS BAND ARE ALONG TRACK SUPERCELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE INTENSE TORNADOES AT TIMES NEXT FEW HOURS. A
LARGE...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PERSISTS EAST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS
ACROSS MS INTO AL...AND SRN TN WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. A
STRONG 50+ KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITHIN A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR...MAINTAINING LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. THOUGH
STORM MODE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BAND MAY GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
PARTIAL LINEAR MODES LATER THIS EVENING...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2014

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN MS THROUGH NRN AL AND
SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 282222Z - 282345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO OUTBREAK UNDERWAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT
LEAST MID EVENING. SEVERAL INTENSE AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE IN
PROGRESS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN MS INTO NRN AL
. IN ADDITION TO
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SERN TN AND A
PDS TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SOON FOR THAT AREA.


DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A BAND OF STORMS PERSIST FROM SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN MS INTO NRN AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. MANY OF THE
STORMS WITH THIS BAND ARE ALONG TRACK SUPERCELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE INTENSE TORNADOES AT TIMES NEXT FEW HOURS. A
LARGE...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PERSISTS EAST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS
ACROSS MS INTO AL...AND SRN TN WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. A
STRONG 50+ KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITHIN A MID LEVEL JET ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR...MAINTAINING LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. THOUGH
STORM MODE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BAND MAY GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
PARTIAL LINEAR MODES LATER THIS EVENING...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 04/28/2014

 

 

 
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Louisville supercell underwent a few mergers, but

looks as though the couplet is returning, and the

storm itself will track toward Columbus.

 

That cell is ahead of the main line and has a nasty environment ahead of it, especially if it can keep moving a little to the right.

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up north

WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
526 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.  
 
* AT 524 PM CDT...A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAYCE...AND  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS OBSERVED BY THE PUBLIC  
NEAR UNION CITY TENNESSEE WITH INFORMATION RELAYED FROM THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TO OUR OFFICE.  
 

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..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR WESTERN MARION COUNTY  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT  
 
* AT 523 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM  
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF WESTON...OR 9 MILES WEST OF HAMILTON...  
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR WESTERN MARION COUNTY. TAKE COVER  
NOW.  

 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HAMILTON...WESTON...HACKLEBURG...BEXAR...SHOTTSVILLE AND PIGEYE.  
  
 

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TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
528 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 527 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EDWARDS...AND  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
534 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
MSC049-282245-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-140428T2245Z/  
HINDS MS-  
534 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY  
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...  
 
AT 534 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLTON...AND  
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 

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Birmingham has a FAR of less than 45%. They tend to be one of the more conservative offices with TOR Warnings. I would say they probably have a good reason for using the Tornado Emergency in Marion County. I think overall the NWS offices have gotten much better about saving the Tornado Emergency for life threatening devastating situations compared to a year or two ago.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
534 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
MSC049-282245-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-140428T2245Z/  
HINDS MS-  
534 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY  
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...  
 
AT 534 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLTON...AND  
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 

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The term tornado emergency is going to become meaningless very soon.  People will get used to it.  

There's multiple reports of a large multivortex tornado on the Hamilton storm, from spotters, and PD. Don't know why it says radar indicated. Every TE today has been because of a large tornado.

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new PDS

 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHWEST GEORGIA  
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA  
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM  
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
 
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
 
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE  
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF  
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KNOXVILLE  
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE  
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.  
 
 

 
 
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 108...WW 109...WW 110...  
 
DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AL MAY  
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND TRACK INTO WATCH AREA.  
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL  
RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES. HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.  
  
 

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The term tornado emergency is going to become meaningless very soon.  People will get used to it.  

 

This is nonsense.  The NWS Offices as a whole have made excellent decisions, for the most part, in issuing Tornado Emergencies.  The only exception so far I would say was the miss of a tornado emergency for the Yazoo storm earlier today.

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