wxtrackercody Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 From Brandon Sullivan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 From Brandon Sullivan: Just to clarify for everyone else, since it's hard to read the text: this is their (HazWx's) custom WRF which they just started running, and I don't know that it's been tuned or verified. They posted an image from it the night before last which showed several monster supercells over W OK with max updraft helicity for yesterday afternoon, which not only busted, but was also a huge outlier from real, operational runs. I'd take its output with more than a grain of salt. With that said, the scenario it shows in this case is not really an outlier or implausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Full Drone vid from Mayflower/I-40 is up online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7s2lzDtjew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Beasley Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Chased not too far from home in Central Arkansas. Couldn't believe it when I saw the storm headed straight for Vilonia after what happened a few years ago. Best pic I could get of the storm (Enhanced the lighting when I developed, it was after dark). Quite a sobering day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Chased not too far from home in Central Arkansas. Couldn't believe it when I saw the storm headed straight for Vilonia after what happened a few years ago. Best pic I could get of the storm (Enhanced the lighting when I developed, it was after dark). Quite a sobering day. I am driving to Cabot in 3 weeks to visit my family, but I lived in Cabot in 2011 and I also could not believe what I was seeing regarding the radar tonight. I cannot believe Vilonia got hit again. I just can't. It doesn;t make any sense, and it saddens me deeply. I have friend in Vilonia, and my mom almost moved there but decided on Cabot because it's closer to "everything" except tornadoes I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Beasley Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Very sorry to hear that! It truly is devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Just to clarify for everyone else, since it's hard to read the text: this is their (HazWx's) custom WRF which they just started running, and I don't know that it's been tuned or verified. They posted an image from it the night before last which showed several monster supercells over W OK with max updraft helicity for yesterday afternoon, which not only busted, but was also a huge outlier from real, operational runs. I'd take its output with more than a grain of salt. With that said, the scenario it shows in this case is not really an outlier or implausible. I know the earlier ones showed convection in SW OK, but the 12Z run didnt have jack. It runs off NAM BC's, and I know the NAM 4km showed that convection in SW OK as well as the HRRR that day. Of course it is an experimental model, so we will have to see how the output does. Like all mesoscale models though, there will be ups/downs with the output which I am sure you are aware of. I'm usually a fan of the NSSL WRF. It does pretty good sometimes but I wish the grpahics were larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Radar image of tornado near Mayflower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Radar image of tornado near Mayflower... That's crazy! Hoping the storms stay out of towns tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening. That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients... Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Good call. Yeah that was a great call by Justin, verified to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Baxter Springs, KS tornado This post has been promoted to an article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Baxter Springs, KS tornado Wow look at all the debris... Just realized that is a truck driving literally a block away from that debris behind him... I mean without saying the person who took the picture shouldn't have but the driver in the picture is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Day 1 MOD just issued for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I know that SHV's level 2 data isn't working right now, but on GR3 that it looks like there might be a TDS associated with that tornado warning along the AR/LA. I really hope that isn't the case though being that this is deep in the night. It showed up after the circulation passed over Hosston, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I know that SHV's level 2 data isn't working right now, but on GR3 that it looks like there might be a TDS associated with that tornado warning along the AR/LA. I really hope that isn't the case though being that this is deep in the night. It showed up after the circulation passed over Hosston, LA. ARC027-073-LAC015-119-280900- /O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140428T0900Z/ COLUMBIA AR-LAFAYETTE AR-BOSSIER LA-WEBSTER LA- 329 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR LAFAYETTE AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...AND WEBSTER AND BOSSIER PARISHES... AT 327 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO JUST NORTHEAST OF PLAIN DEALING...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED EARLIER JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER ON BUCKSHOT ROAD. RADAR CONFIRMED THIS TORNADO BY A STRONG INDICATION OF A DEBRIS BALL. IF YOU LIVE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST BOSSIER PARISH OR THE CULLEN AND SPRINGHILL AREAS...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY. Yikes, I was hoping I was wrong in what I was seeing but I wasn't, terrible time of night for a strong tornado to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Using radar scope I first thought it might be a second rotation, but a debris ball would make more sense. Really really awful time for a strong tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 16 confirmed fatalities in Arkansas, and 1 in Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 08z HRRR for 23z today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 New tornado warning out for SW Tennessee. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 730 AM CDT * AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12 MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Damage photo from Vilonia. Says the bell was thrown 75 yards away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Still 15% hatched tornado from MS into NW AL and C TN, but SPC mentions possible upgrade to high risk later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Today doesn't look to be SO dangerous looking on paper, but I'd still suggest there's a decent chance of a few touchdowns. Is anyone chasing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Today doesn't look to be SO dangerous looking on paper, but I'd still suggest there's a decent chance of a few touchdowns. Is anyone chasing today? Sounds about right, definitely will see a few touchdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Cells near Mount Pleasant, TN, Columbia, TN, & Murfreesboro, TN bear watching. Decent velocity scans but could just be small spin-ups. Lots of low level shear in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Today doesn't look to be SO dangerous looking on paper, but I'd still suggest there's a decent chance of a few touchdowns. Is anyone chasing today? I'm at work and haven't had a chance to really look, but don't let your guard down too much. SPC again talking about upgrading to High Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Will have to keep an eye on Northern/Central Mississippi into perhaps the adjacent areas in West/Middle Tennessee today I think. Set up doesn't give me as much confidence though as yesterday. Tornadoes still highly, highly likely this afternoon/evening though in a wide area... ironically enough up here by me may have a shot at a few around the upper low if we can get a little sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Currently headed towards our target of W-C. IL for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Currently headed towards our target of W-C. IL for today.[/quoteOn I-55 heading to SPI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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