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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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From Brandon Sullivan:

 

Just to clarify for everyone else, since it's hard to read the text: this is their (HazWx's) custom WRF which they just started running, and I don't know that it's been tuned or verified. They posted an image from it the night before last which showed several monster supercells over W OK with max updraft helicity for yesterday afternoon, which not only busted, but was also a huge outlier from real, operational runs. I'd take its output with more than a grain of salt. With that said, the scenario it shows in this case is not really an outlier or implausible.

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Chased not too far from home in Central Arkansas. Couldn't believe it when I saw the storm headed straight for Vilonia after what happened a few years ago. Best pic I could get of the storm (Enhanced the lighting when I developed, it was after dark). Quite a sobering day.14045063264_93c8e07796_b.jpg

I am driving to Cabot in 3 weeks to visit my family, but I lived in Cabot in 2011 and I also could not believe what I was seeing regarding the radar tonight. I cannot believe Vilonia got hit again. I just can't. It doesn;t make any sense, and it saddens me deeply. I have friend in Vilonia, and my mom almost moved there but decided on Cabot because it's closer to "everything" except tornadoes I guess.

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Just to clarify for everyone else, since it's hard to read the text: this is their (HazWx's) custom WRF which they just started running, and I don't know that it's been tuned or verified. They posted an image from it the night before last which showed several monster supercells over W OK with max updraft helicity for yesterday afternoon, which not only busted, but was also a huge outlier from real, operational runs. I'd take its output with more than a grain of salt. With that said, the scenario it shows in this case is not really an outlier or implausible.

I know the earlier ones showed convection in SW OK, but the 12Z run didnt have jack. It runs off NAM BC's, and I know the NAM 4km showed that convection in SW OK as well as the HRRR that day. Of course it is an experimental model, so we will have to see how the output does. Like all mesoscale models though, there will be ups/downs with the output which I am sure you are aware of. I'm usually a fan of the NSSL WRF. It does pretty good sometimes but I wish the grpahics were larger :(

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Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening.  That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients...

 

Good call.

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Baxter Springs, KS tornadoa3evynar.jpg

Wow look at all the debris...

 

Just realized that is a truck driving literally a block away from that debris behind him... I mean without saying the person who took the picture shouldn't have but the driver in the picture is insane.

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I know that SHV's level 2 data isn't working right now, but on GR3 that it looks like there might be a TDS associated with that tornado warning along the AR/LA. I really hope that isn't the case though being that this is deep in the night. It showed up after the circulation passed over Hosston, LA.

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I know that SHV's level 2 data isn't working right now, but on GR3 that it looks like there might be a TDS associated with that tornado warning along the AR/LA. I really hope that isn't the case though being that this is deep in the night. It showed up after the circulation passed over Hosston, LA.

 

ARC027-073-LAC015-119-280900-

/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140428T0900Z/

COLUMBIA AR-LAFAYETTE AR-BOSSIER LA-WEBSTER LA-

329 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR LAFAYETTE

AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...AND WEBSTER AND BOSSIER PARISHES...

AT 327 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A TORNADO JUST NORTHEAST OF PLAIN DEALING...MOVING EAST

NORTHEAST NEAR 50 MPH. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED EARLIER JUST EAST OF THE

RED RIVER ON BUCKSHOT ROAD. RADAR CONFIRMED THIS TORNADO BY A

STRONG INDICATION OF A DEBRIS BALL. IF YOU LIVE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST

BOSSIER PARISH OR THE CULLEN AND SPRINGHILL AREAS...TAKE COVER

IMMEDIATELY.

 

 

Yikes, I was hoping I was wrong in what I was seeing but I wasn't, terrible time of night for a strong tornado to hit.

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New tornado warning out for SW Tennessee.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

 

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

 

* AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12

  MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS

  OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON

  AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES.

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Today doesn't look to be SO dangerous looking on paper, but I'd still suggest there's a decent chance of a few touchdowns.

Is anyone chasing today?

I'm at work and haven't had a chance to really look, but don't let your guard down too much. SPC again talking about upgrading to High Risk.
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Will have to keep an eye on Northern/Central Mississippi into perhaps the adjacent areas in West/Middle Tennessee today I think.  Set up doesn't give me as much confidence though as yesterday.  Tornadoes still highly, highly likely this afternoon/evening though in a wide area... ironically enough up here by me may have a shot at a few around the upper low if we can get a little sunshine...

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