MCS_hunter Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I'm only able to chase on Saturday and being from Minnesota, it's a pretty long drive. I hope the future model runs at least develop some consistency so I can know if it's worth going or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The CIPS analog guidance is still going nuts for Sunday. What does that tell me? When you get rid of the convective feedback problems, Sunday could still be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FHSC Sam Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The CIPS analog guidance is still going nuts for Sunday. What does that tell me? When you get rid of the convective feedback problems, Sunday could still be a big deal. Assuming Sunday does end up with a better setup, I'm still thinking it's going to be a multicell or line setup rather than a discrete supercell type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The CIPS analog guidance is still going nuts for Sunday. What does that tell me? When you get rid of the convective feedback problems, Sunday could still be a big deal. what's causing the convective feedback problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 what's causing the convective feedback problems? It could be something as simple as the convective parameterization of the GFS spawning spuriously strong convection on Saturday that begins a chain of feedback errors through Sunday and onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The CIPS analog guidance is still going nuts for Sunday. What does that tell me? When you get rid of the convective feedback problems, Sunday could still be a big deal. If the latest Euro is correct in significantly slowing down the system (a big if), the location of biggest impacts Sunday would align with many of those analog dates as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 It could be something as simple as the convective parameterization of the GFS spawning spuriously strong convection on Saturday that begins a chain of feedback errors through Sunday and onward. Well if the system does indeed slow down as the Euro is showing, I have a hard time believing there's going to be "that" kind of convection on Saturday night due to strong capping. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 Changes already coming with the 18z GFS, the southern s/w that moves east and ends up phasing with the northern wave tomorrow night to form the NE ULL is making it much further east before doing so compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Changes already coming with the 18z GFS, the southern s/w that moves east and ends up phasing with the northern wave tomorrow night to form the NE ULL is making it much further east before doing so compared to 12z. And what kind of effect will that have on the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 And what kind of effect will that have on the weekend? Well Saturday is back to looking really intense this run, for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Well Saturday is back to looking really intense this run, for one. You're right, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Well Saturday is back to looking really intense this run, for one. Oh yeah. Still a bit early for these details, but from the runs I've seen (having looked periodically), the 3 km EHIs are about as high as I've seen for Saturday, with pockets of >10 northeast of Woodward by 00Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The run-to-run stabilities of both the GFS and Euro are pretty bad right now. Saturday going bonkers again on 18Z GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Lol... "As the models turn"... 18z GFS back with a vengeance... and no convective feedback for the first time in 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 The run-to-run stabilities of both the GFS and Euro are pretty bad right now. Saturday going bonkers again on 18Z GFS lol. Considering how much that lead system which develops into the NE ULL modulates the pattern, that doesn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Lol... "As the models turn"... 18z GFS back with a vengeance... and no convective feedback for the first time in 3 runs. Is the lack of convective feedback in this run a sign that this solution might be better or do we just need to wait for more run to run consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I'd say its a promising step forward, but this far out we still need to see more consistency with all of the models. The timing differences need to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Is the lack of convective feedback in this run a sign that this solution might be better or do we just need to wait for more run to run consistency? I think it's hard to say, though certainly convective feedback has the potential to wreak havoc on downstream forecasts, so the lack of any in this run is encouraging. I think Tony's point about the CIPS analogs maintaining severity despite the convective feedback is a very good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 18z GFS is a bad deal for Dixie on Monday, like the past three Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I think it's hard to say, though certainly convective feedback has the potential to wreak havoc on downstream forecasts, so the lack of any in this run is encouraging. I think Tony's point about the CIPS analogs maintaining severity despite the convective feedback is a very good one. Yeah, I would agree with Tony's point. Notice too, with the lack of convective feedback all 3 days look more impressive. Monday especially across MS looks very ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 The run-to-run stabilities of both the GFS and Euro are pretty bad right now. Saturday going bonkers again on 18Z GFS lol. No convective feedback on the GFS. Big key for Saturday AND Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Is the lack of convective feedback in this run a sign that this solution might be better or do we just need to wait for more run to run consistency? Yes and yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I don't know... am I the only one who thinks Sunday doesn't look that much different? The low is still pretty closed off, lots of convection in the warm sector and dryline still blasts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 23, 2014 Author Share Posted April 23, 2014 I don't know... am I the only one who thinks Sunday doesn't look that much different? The low is still pretty closed off, lots of convection in the warm sector and dryline still blasts east. That doesn't take away from the fact that Saturday, Monday and even potentially Tuesday this run have a ton of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 That doesn't take away from the fact that Saturday, Monday and even potentially Tuesday this run have a ton of potential. I think regardless of run-to-run variability we can all agree Sat-Mon have plenty of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Cool to see what the convective feedback did in previous GFS runs though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I think regardless of run-to-run variability we can all agree Sat-Mon have plenty of potential. Sunday does clearly remain the weakest day of potential on this run. I see it as a transition day of sorts following Saturday and leading up to the big kaboom on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Near MSL (Muscle Shoals, AL) at 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 Near MSL (Muscle Shoals, AL) at 18z Monday. I wish I knew what these meant. Any website suggestions on interpreting these graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 23, 2014 Share Posted April 23, 2014 I don't really see any differences in the 500 mb vertical velocity field (a flag for erroneous convective feedback) between the 12z and 18z GFS runs, at least prior to 18z Saturday. 18z: 12z: The surface temperatures and dew points are higher in the 12z run, triggering a large convective complex and an associated 500 mb vertical velocity max. You could make the case that this feature has a non-physical impact on the subsequent forecast. However, a real convective feature that does develop in this environment would also force an atmospheric response diabiatically. Whether the magnitude of that response would be comparable to what the convective parametrization produces is of course difficult to estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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