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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0932 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014  

 

VALID 280230Z - 291200Z  

   

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR AND VICINITY  

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARCING FROM ERN NEB/IA SWD TO  

NERN TX/NRN LA/MS...  

 

AMENDED TO REMOVE THE MODERATE RISK FROM MOST OF MISSOURI...AND THE  

HIGH RISK FROM ARKANSAS  

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Quapaw, OK..... Only 1 dead (AP reported 2 earlier), 5 injuries..... 20 homes damaged and sirens didn't sound (and there was no tornado warning)

 
Most of the pictures I've seen look like EF-1 to EF-3 type damage. Baxter Springs (same tornado) looks to have similar damage.
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So is the TORNADO threat done in CENTRAL ARKANSAS for the night....I'm tired of being worried sick for my family and friends, and tons of friends have been affected for the 2nd time in 3 years in Vilonia....the place of my first job ever is gone...

 

 

The amended SPC outlook that just came out still has a 15% hatched tornado area in most of AR.  Best for everyone to keep their guard up.

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mcd0440.gif

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280259Z - 280430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 0400Z.

DISCUSSION...WITH MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUING TO
RESIDE OVER THE AREA -- TO THE E OF A SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY
AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE -- AND WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING
THROUGH THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP CNTRL-CONUS CYCLONE PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A QLCS FROM NEAR FORT SMITH AR TO
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK MAY BE THE MANIFESTATION OF THE STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT OVERTAKING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SVR RISK AS IT ENTERS/CROSSES
AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
AND TO ITS S...WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF
A RETREATING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR. MLCAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST 45-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENT/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

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Haven't looked into tomorrow in a few days, but we may have problems with convective debris tomorrow contaminating the highest risk area based on the new diurnal convection that's going to set off. 

 

As always, we will have to watch if any boundaries can lay down tomorrow afternoon and provide a catalyst for discrete development. 

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