blizzardof96 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 I think so too... but the lack of real nice discrete cells from the HRRR in AR gives me pause. It would be a pretty bad bust if the 95% tornado + 80% significant tornado PDS watch doesn't verify. The HRRR is also hinting at another round of supercells across NE Tx along a pre-established outflow boundary after ~6z which eventually propagates into S AR as a QLCS like feature. EDIT: Also has a very impressive QLCS move through SE MO, S IL and eventually into Indiana and KY by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Tornado reported on the ground just SW of Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Quapaw, OK from Shawn Reynolds. he also confirms 2 fatalities in Quapaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 In Missouri, I would say Greene, Polk, Cedar and Dade counties are under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Fort Smith radar picking up an organizing meso in the Hot Springs storm near Fountain Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorky Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The storm in Quapah wasn't even severe warned, but looking at the radar... I can see why.... It looked very innocuous with only the first hint of a couplet as it entered town with almost no reflectivity over town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 According to the AP two reported dead in Quapaw, Oklahoma. No tornado warning issued. Yes, there wasn't any warning at all on that cell when the tornado hit Quapaw. That's too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The HRRR is also hinting at another round of supercells across NE Tx along a pre-established outflow boundary after ~6z which eventually propagates into S AR as a QLCS like feature. hrrr_ref_mc_11.png Yep... that would be the cold front... but the HRRR suggests that most of this activity stays south of the moderate and high risk area. The problem in addition to the non-discrete nature of the cells over C AR, lower dewpoints are actually being advected into AR. The highest dewpoints (low 70's) are further west, but since the surface flow is from the southeast... low to mid 60 F dewpoints are being advected from LA. The PDS watch expires at 04 UTC... so we have another 4 hours to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Mail and debris from Quapaw falling in Nevada, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Train lifted off tracks north of Ft. Scott, KS, per KSPR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Looked back, the tornado warning was issued ~5 minutes after it hit Quapaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Train lifted off tracks north of Ft. Scott, KS, per KSPR. That was with the Hume Cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Looked back, the tornado warning was issued ~5 minutes after it hit Quapaw. Yeah no severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. Granted that cell exploded and went from nothing to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 Just a thing for AR, I wouldn't be surprised if the terrain was a bit of a problem for the cells earlier, disrupting near-surface inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Is the disruption of low-level flow by convection in ctrl AR reducing the low-level shear by veering low-level winds to the south of the warm front? Is that why nothing discrete is really forming in the High Risk? What factors haven't played out as SPC and/or some models expected by now? Also, is there a reason why convection has developed along/north of the warm front in ctrl AR, not south of it? The fact that the warm front has barely moved over the past six hours has obviously played a huge role in reducing today's tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 SW of Little Rock, Hook and couplet trying to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Certainly wouldn't have expected there to be only 2 active torwarnings at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 SW of Little Rock, Hook and couplet trying to get going. was about to post that. That's the one to keep an eye on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I think so too... but the lack of real nice discrete cells from the HRRR in AR gives me pause. It would be a pretty bad bust if the 95% tornado + 80% significant tornado PDS watch doesn't verify. I saw the HRRR as well. Interesting it has little convection in the next few hours. That seemed weird to me, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 SW of Little Rock, Hook and couplet trying to get going. Tornado Warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 706 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... WEST CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF LAKE NORRELL...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE... MAUMELLE... LAKE MAUMELLE... ROLAND... PINNACLE MTN... MORGAN... MAYFLOWER... MARCHE... LITTLE ITALY... LAKE NORRELL... CHENAL VALLEY... PARON... PALARM... NATURAL STEPS... FERNDALE... BLAND... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 145. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Mail and debris from Quapaw falling in Nevada, MO. Looked back, the tornado warning was issued ~5 minutes after it hit Quapaw. Wow, what a shame that happened the way it did...shows that even with today's technology, predicting and issuing warnings is still not an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 That cell near Mayflower/Maumelle Arkansas going to turn into anything? Looks TOR warned and my totaslly untrained eye sees rotation on GRLevel3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Incoming Little Rock, take cover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 I think we have a TDS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 28, 2014 Author Share Posted April 28, 2014 Heading for highly populated areas on the west side of Little Rock, and the parameters are very strong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Cell west of Little Rock has a TDS, it's gotta be on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 Debris sig on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 28, 2014 Share Posted April 28, 2014 What's the best Little Rock TV livestream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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