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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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So I've got 2 friends on their way back from a chruch conference this evening and they're gonna be traveling to NTX through Arkansas. How worried should I be?

 

Where in Arkansas are they going?  For the most part- yes.  They need to be paying attention to the weather substantially.  If they're going to like El Dorado, then it's not *as* big of a deal.  If they're going to like Fayetteville, they'll pass through some danger zones but the other side is better.  If they're going to Little Rock...then it's all danger.

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Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening.  That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients...

Your gut feeling seems to be backed up by one (or more) runs of the HRRR. This is 16z run, forecast for 00z, with a huge storm about 100mi north of Little Rock

 

post-1182-0-12664100-1398634590_thumb.jp

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
443 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
SOUTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
 
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT  
 
* AT 441 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT VERNON  
...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 

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Where in Arkansas are they going?  For the most part- yes.  They need to be paying attention to the weather substantially.  If they're going to like El Dorado, then it's not *as* big of a deal.  If they're going to like Fayetteville, they'll pass through some danger zones but the other side is better.  If they're going to Little Rock...then it's all danger.

 

Just got word that they are indeed passing through LR later tonight. They're gonna be there probably late evening. Will have more details soon.

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AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...ERN OK...NERN TX...NRN LA  
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...97...  

 
VALID 272152Z - 272245Z  

 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...97...CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS INCREASING IN  
CNTRL/W-CNTRL/SWRN ARKANSAS. THE TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ELSEWHERE  
ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 97 AND 100.  
 
DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN  
A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CONFLUENCE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER  
60S-AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS FROM SW TO W-CNTRL ARKANSAS. STORMS  
WILL LIKELY MATURE WITHIN THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE TO ATTAIN  
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN 50-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR. WITH THE 21Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM LZK INDICATING LARGE  
STREAMWISE VORTICITY FOR SFC-LAYER INFLOW...SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH  
AROUND 600 M2/S2...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS INCREASING.  
THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH CONVECTION THAT INTERACTS  
WITH A WARM FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED NW/SE ACROSS ARKANSAS  
WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MORE BACKED. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED  
ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT FARTHER W ACROSS ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TRACKING  
EWD AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE ATTENDANT  
TORNADO THREAT INCREASING INTO FAR ERN OK AND WRN AR IN THE  
SHORT-TERM.  
 
..COHEN.. 04/27/2014  

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Just got word that they are indeed passing through LR later tonight. They're gonna be there probably late evening. Will have more details soon.

 

First thing is to make sure they pay attention to the situation and acutally listening to some regional radio stations!

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