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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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One thing that is likely being overlooked in this thread is also the potential for catastrophic flooding across areas just north of the warm frontal boundary. Memphis in particular may be very hard hit. It might not be as sexy to watch as supercells, but this could also end up being a substantial societal impact.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.NQA.N0Q.20140427.2036.0

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One thing that is likely being overlooked in this thread is also the potential for catastrophic flooding across areas just north of the warm frontal boundary. Memphis in particular may be very hard hit. It might not be as sexy to watch as supercells, but this could also end up being a substantial societal impact.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.NQA.N0Q.20140427.2036.0

Memphis already has been hard hit, not good. I think they got 3 inches of rain already today.

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95/80 tornado probs on that watch.

 

3SjZwqN.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DE QUEEN
ARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW
98
...WW 99...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SE OK...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NE TX THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND
MATURE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TORNADOES IN AR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG TRACK...STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WELL INTO
THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON
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Also for those who know chasers, even though it's just outside of the highest of the high risk area, US 65 outside of Pine Bluff is also great chase areas.  It's really once I-530 gets about 1/3 of the way from PB to LR that it starts getting super hilly.  I imagine that parts of AR SW of US 65 are similarly favorable terrain wise.

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Memphis already has been hard hit, not good. I think they got 3 inches of rain already today.

 

You can see how the remnant outflow boundary associated with this morning's MCS has allowed elevated convection to continue to backbuild. As the supercells fire up further south and west, its the Memphis area that's likely to get the brunt of the heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. 

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Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening.  That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients...

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Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening.  That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients...

Ugh you're scaring me. My mommy lives just a hair N and NE of LR in Cabot. Which does just happen to be on the border of the MDT/High Risk. Cabot was flattened in 1976 and surrounded in 2011. I so hope you are wrong. I so hope this is a bust. I really do (no chance of that happening I know). I am driving to Cabot in 2 weeks to visit my friends and family...I really don't want to have to start driving out there tonight lest something terrible happen. :/

 

Thank you so much for the information everyone, you have no idea how many people you are helping. well, I'm sure you do, but y'know. Thank you.

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Certainly can't complain about a T.Td spread with those numbers around Little Rock.  Very concerning for central and southern AR this evening with enough recovery time for incoming supercells to mature and be affected by the boudaries in the area.  I hope people there are paying attention to this PDS watch.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

415 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

 

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

 

* AT 411 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
  ROTATION THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME  WAS LOCATED NEAR
  MESSER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
           TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
           LIKELY.

 

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...RATTAN...OLETA...CORINNE...
  SOBOL AND CLOUDY.

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one big question for the memphis area. so we will most likely have localized flash flooding to add to this list for this evening into the overnight. what if we add that to any severe cells to that as well later tonight into the overnight? can emergency crews trying to clear up a flash flood be able to do so if we get gusts of 65+, hail, and maybe a twister in the area involved?

 

i know that's thinking worst-case here, but it's kind of a scary thought if you're an EM person there in Memphis/West Memphis/Tunica right now.

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