geddyweather Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 And indeed it is a PDS... TORNADO 0100– Valid until: 04/28/2014 0400Z– States affected: AR OK– Particularly Dangerous Situation– Issued: 3 minutes ago Here we go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 One thing that is likely being overlooked in this thread is also the potential for catastrophic flooding across areas just north of the warm frontal boundary. Memphis in particular may be very hard hit. It might not be as sexy to watch as supercells, but this could also end up being a substantial societal impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 One thing that is likely being overlooked in this thread is also the potential for catastrophic flooding across areas just north of the warm frontal boundary. Memphis in particular may be very hard hit. It might not be as sexy to watch as supercells, but this could also end up being a substantial societal impact. Memphis already has been hard hit, not good. I think they got 3 inches of rain already today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Lookout SE Oklahoma... that little storm down there looks quite nasty, developing hook it appears too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 95/80 tornado probs on that watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK335 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARKANSASEXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL1100 PM CDT....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...NUMEROUS TORNADOES EXPECTED WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELYWIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELYSCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80MPH POSSIBLETHE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTEMILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DE QUEENARKANSAS TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FORA COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCHOUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97...WW98...WW 99...DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THEDRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SE OK...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S IN NE TX THE REMAINDER OF THEAFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ANDMATURE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTFOR TORNADOES IN AR. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG ALONG ARESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AR...AND THE LOW LEVELSWILL SLOWLY WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THEPOTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG TRACK...STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES WELL INTOTHE EVENING.AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035....THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Also for those who know chasers, even though it's just outside of the highest of the high risk area, US 65 outside of Pine Bluff is also great chase areas. It's really once I-530 gets about 1/3 of the way from PB to LR that it starts getting super hilly. I imagine that parts of AR SW of US 65 are similarly favorable terrain wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Storms aggressively firing off the dry line in Texas now. Those are all upstream of the new PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Memphis already has been hard hit, not good. I think they got 3 inches of rain already today. You can see how the remnant outflow boundary associated with this morning's MCS has allowed elevated convection to continue to backbuild. As the supercells fire up further south and west, its the Memphis area that's likely to get the brunt of the heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening. That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Dryline is trying to fire to my east about 15 or so miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Personally I have a gut feeling for the area around or just a hair N and NE of Little Rock to see something very nasty later this evening. That boundary is going to try and lift through there, low level jet cranking up, strong instability feeding into that area this evening, and perhaps an outflow boundary from the convection going through Memphis.... I think that area has all the ingredients... Ugh you're scaring me. My mommy lives just a hair N and NE of LR in Cabot. Which does just happen to be on the border of the MDT/High Risk. Cabot was flattened in 1976 and surrounded in 2011. I so hope you are wrong. I so hope this is a bust. I really do (no chance of that happening I know). I am driving to Cabot in 2 weeks to visit my friends and family...I really don't want to have to start driving out there tonight lest something terrible happen. :/ Thank you so much for the information everyone, you have no idea how many people you are helping. well, I'm sure you do, but y'know. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Pretty impressive wall cloud on TVNWeather via TornadoRaiders.com. Storm is located in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Reed Timmer and the Dominator are sat watching the storm around Hugo, looks impressive on radar like it may drop at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 This is from my house looking North East Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Been a while since we've seen the PDS tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Reed Timmer and the Dominator are sat watching the storm around Hugo, looks impressive on radar like it may drop at some point. All 3 Dominator's are in the same spot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 KLIT (South of Little Rock) now up to 73/68 at the 4pm update. Little Rock AFB (NE of Little Rock) 70/68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Dryline cells in Texas aren't looking as good as I thought they would at this point, but they are still well upstream of the best directional shear. I'd probably be setting up to eventually follow and intercept the southernmost cell if I weren't sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Tor Warned on the cell in SE Okla Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Certainly can't complain about a T.Td spread with those numbers around Little Rock. Very concerning for central and southern AR this evening with enough recovery time for incoming supercells to mature and be affected by the boudaries in the area. I hope people there are paying attention to this PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Storms in SE OK now t-warned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Sitting in Malvern, AR with at least another dozen chasers chilling at the largest gas station with the best A/C. It's a bloody sauna out here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 JOPLIN BACK UP TO 77/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 KLIT (South of Little Rock) now up to 73/68 at the 4pm update. Little Rock AFB (NE of Little Rock) 70/68. Even higher south of there. 77/73 at KADF and 80/72 at KPBF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Tornado Warning for the Hugo, OK cell. Very strong, low level rotation showing up on tilt 2 velocity now. Baseball sized hail with it as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 415 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... SOUTH CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 411 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME WAS LOCATED NEAR MESSER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...RATTAN...OLETA...CORINNE... SOBOL AND CLOUDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 one big question for the memphis area. so we will most likely have localized flash flooding to add to this list for this evening into the overnight. what if we add that to any severe cells to that as well later tonight into the overnight? can emergency crews trying to clear up a flash flood be able to do so if we get gusts of 65+, hail, and maybe a twister in the area involved? i know that's thinking worst-case here, but it's kind of a scary thought if you're an EM person there in Memphis/West Memphis/Tunica right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Fayetteville is probably more of a severe thunderstorm threat rather than a tornado threat eh? Skies are clear now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The incoming developing supercells will be traversing mountainous recreational terrain as they initially progress ne. I do hope campers and people completing weekend activities in that forested region are aware of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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