OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 That's what happens when you don't have a well-established cold pool. The unstable atmosphere rapidly readvects in, and you're back to square one. Yes indeed, DP up to 63 here now, air temp 71 Any thoughts on when the dryline refires? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61. Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67.... Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area. any return of the southerly srf winds? I assume yes... Will be interesting to see if storms redevelop along the boundary in OK and perhaps S Kansas with all this clearing/ sun to work with... No CU field developing attm either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Yup.. what's with all that junky looking convection down by you? Looks like it's right over you now? Just rain? EDIT: Just warned for Hail. Storm really just east of me... no hail here, but heavy rain. TSA has adjusted their timing... slowing down the timing of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Rich Thompson is probably one of the most skilled and experienced forecasters at SPC. It is ok to disagree, but try and add some value to the discussion. Let us not turn this into a SPC vs "my forecast" thread. The reduction of the MOD risk to the N is justified given the latest convective trends. And also understand that the risk categories are probability based. Continue on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 That temperature differential setting up across central/southern AR due to the cloud cover and morning convection looks rather ominous for tornadic supercells later. It should increase the vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Judging from TMCI, I'm guessing a tornado just passed near/just N of Plattsburg, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 That temperature differential setting up across central/southern AR due to the cloud cover and morning convection looks rather ominous for tornadic supercells later. It should increase the vorticity. Explosion of elevated convection in northern AR should reinforce that boundary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Rich Thompson is probably one of the most skilled and experienced forecasters at SPC. It is ok to disagree, but try and add some value to the discussion. Let us not turn this into a SPC vs "my forecast" thread. The reduction of the MOD risk to the N is justified given the latest convective trends. And also understand that the risk categories are probability based. Continue on. Strongly agree. If you are going to critique the outlook, do it with substance. And keep in mind the definition of a high risk based on tornado probabilities. Does the current situation warrant the upgrade of an area from 15% to 30% tor? And why? A high risk denotes the ultimate level of certainty in a tornado (or damaging wind) outbreak. And there is plenty of uncertainty instilled in the forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Judging from TMCI, I'm guessing a tornado just passed near/just N of Plattsburg, MO. CC backs it up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Looks like the cold core threat might evolve. Now a tornado watch for the cold core area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 CC backs it up too No it doesn't. That low area is in low signal, not associated with debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 No it doesn't. That low area is in low signal, not associated with debris. My bad. Rookie mistake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThompNickSon Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 For anyone interested, I am trying to get a discussion going of the fundamentals of this situation in THE ROLE OF EMLS IN SEVERE ... . I would love some wise comment on the Shreveport skewT posted there. Won't say more here in fear of cross posting. N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 MCD for a watch just issued for the highest threat areas. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1225 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL ARKANSASCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 271725Z - 271930ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLYFAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...A FEW OFWHICH COULD BE STRONG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGINGWIND WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE ANDCONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A TORNADOWATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z-20Z.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROMERN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATEDFROM NRN MS THROUGH CNTRL ARKANSAS. THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESEBOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS A STRONG LLJ ADVECTS UPPER60S DEWPOINTS NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE RATE OFBOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY MULTILAYER CLOUDSINCLUDING STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOESSHOW NUMEROUS CLOUD BREAKS...AND THE STRATUS DECK OVER CENTRALARKANSAS MAY EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. AN AXIS OF 1500-2500J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.A PRE-FRONTAL BELT OF ASCENT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EWDPROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES FROM WRN ARKANSAS THROUGH NWRNTX. MEANWHILE AN UPPER JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPERTROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL ASBOUNDARY LAYER WARMING SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLYFOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OFPRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE IN WARM SECTOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFICFRONT. STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHINGUPPER JET AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLSWITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGEHAIL. THE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS APPEAR MAXIMIZED ACROSS CNTRL AR WHERELOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THAT ISCURRENTLY BEING REINFORCED BY ELEVATED CONVECTION...DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Anybody think there could be any kind of substantial redevelopment along the dryline in central OK through SC Kansas? Given the possible return of low/mid sixties dp's, rising temps and instability? Crapvection really only temporally appears to have turned over the atmosphere, and dryline surprisingly hasnt begun to surge eastward yet. No CU development to speak of right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if any of the watches this afternoon get a PDS label on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if any of the watches this afternoon get a PDS label on them. I think you'll see the Ark watch get PDS. Based on the meso analysis that I'm seeing and the hires model prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Sharply backed near-surface winds across central Arkansas are ESE just behind the warm front. Rather ominous indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Hardly any changes to the Day 2 outlook. Slight risk was expanded into central NC, the Illinois/Iowa area got a hatched contour. No change to the Moderate risk itself, though the significant severe weather contour was expanded farther east. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...TN...NERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA AND IL SWD ACROSS THE OH...TN...THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE WRN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...TENNESSEE...SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ...SYNOPSIS... LOW-PRESSURE WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER ERN NEB AND IA DURING THE DAY WITH LEADING JET MAX DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS IA AND NRN IL...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW...ARCING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM IA TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. TO THE E...A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT NWD ACROSS NC...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THERE. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN... WHILE THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN DELINEATING THE PRECISE THREAT CORRIDOR...A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF TRAINING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY FROM NERN LA ACROSS MS AND INTO NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE STORMS WILL EITHER BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD SPREAD OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SLOW MOVING FRONT. REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. A LONG UPDRAFT RESIDENCE TIME IN THE UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FLOODING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MS. ...CNTRL AND NRN IL...FAR ERN IA AND NWRN IND... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WITH THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...RESULTING IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION. WITH LITTLE CAPPING...A BROKEN ARC OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. ...NRN SC INTO WRN AND CNTRL NC... AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NWD ACROSS NC...WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE S. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION WITH AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST MUCH OF THE DAY...COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SPREAD INTO FAR WRN NC AND SC LATE IN THE DAY...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. HAIL WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY. ..JEWELL.. 04/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Bummer. Plattsburg, MO: ANNEMOMETER MEASURED 58 MPH WIND BEFORE IT BLEW AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Sitting a little north of Joplin. Waited for the outflow dominant storms to blow by and left a subtle outflow boundary just to the south. Watching the new storms quickly popping in far northeast OK that should head this way. They'll have clean air to work with and also some interaction with the outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Man there is a lot of ongonig crapvection from eastern OK through much of Arkansas. Stuff firing up again in NE OK and pushing up towards the Joplin area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Bummer. Plattsburg, MO: ANNEMOMETER MEASURED 58 MPH WIND BEFORE IT BLEW AWAY. Pretty intense winds to break an anemometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Man there is a lot of ongonig crapvection from eastern OK through much of Arkansas. Stuff firing up again in NE OK and pushing up towards the Joplin area. Noticed this too, it really just does not want to clear out. Maybe behind SPC reasoning for staying at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Man these atmosphere has rebounded quickly at my place. 77 degrees, 74% humidity and 66 DPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 First tor warning up in missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 CU field bubbling ahead of the dryline/front back in TX/S OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 2m DEWPS/10m Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1251 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI... WESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN RAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT * AT 1248 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ODESSA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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