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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak


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Just a couple more questions... is there any sort of 'live chat' feature on the website where people discuss things in real time?! I always find the most interesting form of following the weather to be watching a live channel as they break things down in real time! Lastly, do we have any real time free radars?

 

Not any live chats that I know of that are populated, and usually the ones that are are full of trolls.

The best free "real-time" radar site is here: http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp

 

Re: NAM Fire Nest, Yikes!

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..ARKLATEX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR/SRN MO  

 

THE RICHEST MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING INTO SRN AR AND  

NE TX BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. STRONG  

SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR THROUGH THE  

AFTERNOON...WHERE UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON  

TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE  

N/NE EDGE OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY /SW OF THE ONGOING WAA STORMS  

OVER E AND NE AR THIS MORNING/ WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL  

SHEAR AND A 40-50 KT LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLY PRE-FRONTAL  

CONVECTION IN NE TX/ERN OK WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO WARM SECTOR  

SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...AS DESTABILIZATION PROCEEDS AND AS  

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE  

TROUGH THIS MORNING.  

 

A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE  

SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...MODERATE  

BUOYANCY...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. A DISCRETE OR CLUSTER SUPERCELL  

MODE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS  

AR...PROLONGING THE TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

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Do you think PDS watches will be avoided too, with the latest update the way it was?

 

I have my doubts that the AR watch won't be a PDS, the wording in that outlook clearly suggests that it could be.

 

You can still have PDS watches with moderates.

 

Convection ahead of the dryline has basically completely broken up in TX.

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Just weird decisions all around by the SPC. I can maybe understand scaling back the moderate risk area for some parts of MO, but parts of central Arkansas at LEAST need to be under a high risk. This of course isn't to mention the lack of moderate risk from D3. It's like they are scared of busting.

I agree completely.  Might be a midafternoon update.

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On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61.  Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67....

 

Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area.

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On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61.  Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67....

 

Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area.

 

Yeah, the dryline may actually stall farther west according to the NAM. 

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Yeah, the dryline may actually stall farther west according to the NAM. 

Yeah I noticed that I generally have lost confidence in the NAM for feature placements....or really almost anything else for that matter :(

 

edit: and now the sun is out here at my house...

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On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61.  Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67....

 

Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area.

That's what happens when you don't have a well-established cold pool.  The unstable atmosphere rapidly readvects in, and you're back to square one.

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Looks like the cold core threat might evolve.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND PARTS OF ERN NEB...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271654Z - 271830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 17-18Z

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD ANVIL CIRRUS CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH HAS MOVED INTO SWRN
NEB...WHICH HAS LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME
CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR...WITH TSTMS RECENTLY
DEVELOPING NEAR LXN AND SLN. A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT IS LARGELY NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. WHILE BACKED
MIDLEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE CREATING LESS THAN IDEAL
HODOGRAPHS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY. OTHERWISE...SOME
HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
CELL.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014
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Dryline is clearly back in C OK, according to OK Mesonet analysis. 

 

Yup.. what's with all that junky looking convection down by you? Looks like it's right over you now? Just rain?

 

EDIT: Just warned for Hail.

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