Central Illinois Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 I'm down by St Louis today should be interesting almost 80 here already Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 KCDH has also broken 80. They're currently 81/66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 12z Fire Nest NAM Updraft Hel. loop.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 12z Fire Nest NAM Updraft Hel. loop.... What in the name of sweet hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 That area looks pretty impressive right now. Northwest Arkansas is still real cloudy 70 degrees and climbing with a 66 dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Just a couple more questions... is there any sort of 'live chat' feature on the website where people discuss things in real time?! I always find the most interesting form of following the weather to be watching a live channel as they break things down in real time! Lastly, do we have any real time free radars? Not any live chats that I know of that are populated, and usually the ones that are are full of trolls. The best free "real-time" radar site is here: http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp Re: NAM Fire Nest, Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 MDT risk area has shrunk considerably with their 1630 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 No upgrade, in fact looks like they scaled back the area of MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 ..ARKLATEX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR/SRN MO THE RICHEST MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS SPREADING INTO SRN AR AND NE TX BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS NRN LA AND SRN AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE N/NE EDGE OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY /SW OF THE ONGOING WAA STORMS OVER E AND NE AR THIS MORNING/ WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A 40-50 KT LLJ. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN NE TX/ERN OK WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...AS DESTABILIZATION PROCEEDS AND AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IMPROVE WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SUPERCELLS...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2...MODERATE BUOYANCY...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. A DISCRETE OR CLUSTER SUPERCELL MODE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS AR...PROLONGING THE TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Not any live chats that I know of that are populated, and usually the ones that are are full of trolls. The best free "real-time" radar site is here: http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp Re: NAM Fire Nest, Yikes! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Wow can't say I agree with the new outlook decision at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 By the way, more of the models are in agreement that the low level shear is going to be strong all throughout this afternoon in the main risk area, which means any early development will likely become just as potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/ Forgot about COD, good call. Can't zoom in but at least it has the dual-pol products! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Forgot about COD, good call. Can't zoom in but at least it has the dual-pol products! Yup both sites have good uses, but the dual pol is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Wow can't say I agree with the new outlook decision at all. What specifically do you feel that they got wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Does anyone think that a MDT risk will be issued for parts of NC this week, specifically Tuesday or Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Does anyone think that a MDT risk will be issued for parts of NC this week, specifically Tuesday or Wednesday? Potential is there, depending on evolution of previous convection/mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Do you think PDS watches will be avoided too, with the latest update the way it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Do you think PDS watches will be avoided too, with the latest update the way it was? I have my doubts that the AR watch won't be a PDS, the wording in that outlook clearly suggests that it could be. You can still have PDS watches with moderates. Convection ahead of the dryline has basically completely broken up in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 A little notch in the line just N of Kansas City, Beautiful swirl on MCI TDWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Just weird decisions all around by the SPC. I can maybe understand scaling back the moderate risk area for some parts of MO, but parts of central Arkansas at LEAST need to be under a high risk. This of course isn't to mention the lack of moderate risk from D3. It's like they are scared of busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Just weird decisions all around by the SPC. I can maybe understand scaling back the moderate risk area for some parts of MO, but parts of central Arkansas at LEAST need to be under a high risk. This of course isn't to mention the lack of moderate risk from D3. It's like they are scared of busting. I agree completely. Might be a midafternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61. Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67.... Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61. Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67.... Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area. Yeah, the dryline may actually stall farther west according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Yeah, the dryline may actually stall farther west according to the NAM. Yeah I noticed that I generally have lost confidence in the NAM for feature placements....or really almost anything else for that matter edit: and now the sun is out here at my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Yeah, the dryline may actually stall farther west according to the NAM. Dryline is clearly back in C OK, according to OK Mesonet analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 On a different note, DP's 75 mins ago at my house were down to 52, now according to mesonet back up to 61. Ambient temps back up 10 degrees from 57 to 67.... Makes me concerned for areas that will have more time to rebound before the DL passes their area. That's what happens when you don't have a well-established cold pool. The unstable atmosphere rapidly readvects in, and you're back to square one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Looks like the cold core threat might evolve. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1154 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND PARTS OF ERN NEB...N-CNTRL KSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 271654Z - 271830ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THISAFTERNOON...WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEWTORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 17-18ZDISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD ANVIL CIRRUS CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OFCENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH HAS MOVED INTO SWRNNEB...WHICH HAS LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOMECLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR...WITH TSTMS RECENTLYDEVELOPING NEAR LXN AND SLN. A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BEPOSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SBCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND STRONGEFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT IS LARGELY NORMAL TO THE BOUNDARY. WHILE BACKEDMIDLEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE CREATING LESS THAN IDEALHODOGRAPHS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVELLAPSE RATES AND HIGH AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY. OTHERWISE...SOMEHAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINEDCELL...DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Dryline is clearly back in C OK, according to OK Mesonet analysis. Yup.. what's with all that junky looking convection down by you? Looks like it's right over you now? Just rain? EDIT: Just warned for Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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