Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Unfortunately, really thinking that most of central Arkansas will be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow at some point. With pretty much every tornado parameter maxed out along the dryline AND ahead of it, its kind of hard not to assume that there will be at least one violent tornado tomorrow. This is beginning to look like the kind of situation where you almost hope for a bust. By this time tomorrow, things should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Unfortunately, really thinking that most of central Arkansas will be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow at some point. With pretty much every tornado parameter maxed out along the dryline AND ahead of it, its kind of hard not to assume that there will be at least one violent tornado tomorrow. This is beginning to look like the kind of situation where you almost hope for a bust. By this time tomorrow, things should be interesting to say the least. ScreenHunter_77 Apr. 26 18.29.png I think I'll be sitting in Pine Bluff, AR tomorrow afternoon. We're going to see several long track supercells track through the heart of Arkansas, it seems pretty clear on most major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Just booked a room at a Hampton Inn in Texarkana for tonight. I was debating whether I wanted to target NW AR/SW MO verses SW AR/NE TX tomorrow but I suppose I can get back north fairly quickly if I need to. I'm not looking forward to the 250ish mile drive tonight with the LLJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Unfortunately, really thinking that most of central Arkansas will be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow at some point. With pretty much every tornado parameter maxed out along the dryline AND ahead of it, its kind of hard not to assume that there will be at least one violent tornado tomorrow. This is beginning to look like the kind of situation where you almost hope for a bust. By this time tomorrow, things should be interesting to say the least. ScreenHunter_77 Apr. 26 18.29.png i am getting that feeling too. it's one of the scariest feelings you have as a met, where you know it's going to get real ugly, you just want to say "be ready to hit the deck tomorrow". what does have me worried even more though is monday morning's possible convection. like was mentioned by tornado tony, you have good low level dynamics in place for MEM, LIT, BNA, etc. add that to the elevated cape we both saw, and what about the potential of cities like MEM, BNA, PAH, BHM, LIT, etc seeing tornadic or large hail-producing supercells on the morning rush hour? I definitely am scared of that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 May be initiation Northwest of ABI now, per SPC meso discussion, will be high based if it does sustain (Near 30°F T/Td spreads in the area), at least into the evening. Day 1 probs down on the 20Z SWODY1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Sorry to break up tomorrows super threat but, We got a 40k footer near Seymour TX. See if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 It's not that overnight convection could prevent initiation, it's that overnight convection will stabilize the atmosphere and narrow the threat area for tomorrow late afternoon/evening severe convection. I know that, I was excluding left-over storms in the question. Actually Sunday and Monday as individual days may exceed the magnitude of the events you mentioned, both in numbers of significant/violent tornadoes and in terms of human impact given the higher population density of the areas affected. I don't think any of the upcoming individual days look quite as impressive as 4/27/11, but on the other hand we have several days to get through. Comparisons aside, it's a very dangerous setup over a lot of real estate. I thought so, just clarifying because of how phenomenal that is. I often can't get a good sense for how setups stack up to history but if the door is open by the slimmest of margins to have 4/27/11 even mentioned or benchmarked, that is the biggest hammer one can drop. Didn't think for a second that idea would be entertained for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 First MD of the outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 First MD of the outbreak. Second, the first one mentioned the big T/Td spread, and only gave a 20% chance of watch issuance due to questions about whether CI would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Initiation along the Westernmost dryline now. That is sort of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Aspermont, Haskell, and Throckmorton TX always seem to be such favorable areas for dryline initiation in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Minor convection between okc and Tulsa now. Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Well I'm starting to get sad now, it looks like this system isn't going to drop any rain on DFW. The worse part is we might not get another chance for storms for another two weeks; which is unheard of during the spring. I know that the severe threat is high, but we really need the rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Well I'm starting to get sad now, it looks like this system isn't going to drop any rain on DFW. The worse part is we might not get another chance for storms for another two weeks; which is unheard of during the spring. I know that the severe threat is high, but we really need the rain here. HRRR is developing thunderstorms that impact DFW early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 HRRR is developing thunderstorms that impact DFW early tomorrow morning. fwiw, the HRRR had storms blowing up near lincoln, ne this evening. (dp already 57 here in lincoln) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Yeah that 18z firewx nest might be the most ridiculous hi-res prog I've ever seen, those supercells over AR are just absolute monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Dear lord... This only goes out to 21Z, but string of pearls. I imagine it would develop more further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Dear lord... This only goes out to 21Z, but string of pearls. I imagine it would develop more further south as well. And this is before the strong backing of the surface winds over AR and vicinity/rapid LLJ intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 April 15 and April 27, 2011 are now showing up as analogs for Tuesday afternoon. Be sure not to take it too literal, however. Analogs compare similar synoptic patterns, and mesoscale details make all the difference with big outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Look who showed up for the analogs regarding Tuesday. Be sure not to take it too literal, however. Analogs compare similar synoptic patterns, and mesoscale details make all the difference with big outbreaks. Saw that myself, but figured I would pass on mentioning it and focus more on looking at tomorrow and my possible chase prospects (might play NE TX, but then again, I might just stay home too). However, the two do look like they could be synoptically similar. Tuesday as currently modeled features a very potent vort max rotating around the bottom of a very broad-based trough, very potent low level jet, more than ample instability, and possible secondary surface cyclogenesis, all which played crucial roles to the outbreak three years prior almost to the day. Like you said though, mesoscale features that can't be modeled by the globals/NAM at this range and subsequently could be very different that those in the listed analogs. We're still a few days away from figuring out what those mesoscale features will be that play into what happens Tuesday, and I'm not willing to buy into the bold April 27, 2011 comparisons I've seen tossed around today by some, but I think it's pretty safe to say that Tuesday (much like Sunday and Monday) will be featuring a very high celling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Literally every high-res solution I've seen has AR getting absolutely plastered tomorrow, it's not one of those things with a rogue supercell or two with high UH, there's like 7+ on most of them and they are all maxing out or near maxing out the UH scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 00z NAM does seem to break out a little bit more early convection than it showed on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 00z NAM does seem to break out a little bit more early convection than it showed on previous runs. And yet the parameters in Central AR are still ridiculous by 00z, especially the low level shear, which goes positively through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The 18Z 4km NAM for RUE in central Arkansas at 7pm is pretty wicked. STP of 16.6? 0-1km EHI of 9.2? 4400 j/kg of CAPE balanced with 60+ kts of bulk shear? Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 The 18Z 4km NAM for RUE in central Arkansas at 7pm is pretty wicked. STP of 16.6? 0-1km EHI of 9.2? 4400 j/kg of CAPE balanced with 60+ kts of bulk shear? Ouch! Is that a supercell index of FIFTY FOUR?? My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 What's worse, the 00z 12 km would argue that it's companion in the 4 km would be worse than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Is that a supercell index of FIFTY FOUR?? My goodness. Yes. And believe it or not the SCP is actually higher at 23Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 And yet the parameters in Central AR are still ridiculous by 00z, especially the low level shear, which goes positively through the roof. The overlap of parameters in Central Arkansas really spells trouble for any cells that can take advantage of the environment. I'm still wondering about early storms having an impact on the true aerial extent of the threat somewhat, but I have few doubts about parts of Arkansas being in big trouble tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 One of the big differences in the NAM for Monday is that the stronger upper-level winds really spread east far over the warm sector vs. the GFS. I'm thinking this is owing to less convective contamination disrupting the upper-level flow. If these wind fields verify, I'd imagine the odds of discrete convection lasting well into Monday night increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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