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April 26th-30th, 2014 Major Tornado Outbreak

andyhb

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted

I got really excited about sunday for my area (se kansas) when I saw the ~20z AFD update from TSA and SGF for sunday despite ICT having a much different opinion... Both seem confident in tornado potential on sunday despite obvious concerns of morning convection and largely unidirectional 0-6km shear as well as storm mode... Another concern was dryline location and timing with general model consensus being the DL along highway-75 by 00z meanwhile analogs suggest a different location further west. Main confidence about tornado potential seemed to be with favorable 0-3km shear and sufficient low-level hodographs. In my opinion i think sunday is actually looking pretty good basing off of analogs compared to guidance... Thinking analogs provide a "better picture" of what will happen, also personally think theres a decent chance morning convection will exit this particular area along with cloud debris early enough providing enough time for the atmosphere to recover more substantially and destabilize more than current guidance suggests... Obviously a really optimistic scenario/ opinion, but mainly going off of local WFOs thoughts. In other words, think a more substantial and widespread severe weather outbreak could occur than currently forecast/discussed... Will be interesting to see what SPC says about D2 and if they expand MDT risk further north and slightly west... Thoughts? Aforementioned this is really optimistic and really more of what would be cool to see happen given low population areas minus Joplin and Tulsa/Broken Arrow.

EDIT: Sorry about spelling and gramatical errors wrote this on a 4in touch screen

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jojo762

jojo762

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I've been looking into that. I hope it's just a wind/

hail threat. I think the best tornado probs will be across SE OK and W AR because the winds will be becoming more SW oriented with time up this way. Still probably can't rule out tornadoes up this way though.

SGF AFD seemed oddly optimistic about TOR potential as i mentioned above. Personally still think morning convection will be detremental given expected early initiation.
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soonertrey

soonertrey

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I got really excited about sunday for my area (se kansas) when I saw the ~20z AFD update from TSA and SGF for sunday despite ICT having a much different opinion... Both seem confident in tornado potential on sunday despite obvious concerns of morning convection and largely unidirectional 0-6km shear as well as storm mode... Another concern was dryline location and timing with general model consensus being the DL along highway-75 by 00z meanwhile analogs suggest a different location further west. Main confidence about tornado potential seemed to be with favorable 0-3km shear and sufficient low-level hodographs. In my opinion i think sunday is actually looking pretty good basing off of analogs compared to guidance... Thinking analogs provide a "better picture" of what will happen, also personally think theres a decent chance morning convection will exit this particular area along with cloud debris early enough providing enough time for the atmosphere to recover more substantially and destabilize more than current guidance suggests... Obviously a really optimistic scenario/ opinion, but mainly going off of local WFOs thoughts. In other words, think a more substantial and widespread severe weather outbreak could occur than currently forecast/discussed... Will be interesting to see what SPC says about D2 and if they expand MDT risk further north and slightly west... Thoughts? Aforementioned this is really optimistic and really more of what would be cool to see happen given low population areas minus Joplin and Tulsa/Broken Arrow.

EDIT: Sorry about spelling and gramatical errors wrote this on a 4in touch screen

I wouldn't rely on those analogs for forecasting. But, it is interesting and a bit puzzling how the analog svr reports are further west on Sunday. But it seems like each model run has faster progression of the DL. We should know a lot more soon with the ULL coming onshore.

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Quincy

Quincy

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Also the one for 10/18/2007

Good catch. Wasn't accurately listed from that source. Editing original post.

I'm very interested to see how the high res models start looking first thing in the morning. Even 00z models have some importance, but I don't *expect* any major changes from them.

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NCsandhills

NCsandhills

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I am getting nervous here. I don't live there anymore, but my mother and my little brother, along with several friends, live just north of Little Rock AR and I am going there in 2 weeks for a visit.

 

Please tell me Little Rock (well, specifically Cabot...which was flattened in 1976...) is not really in the biggest threat zone....

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andyhb

andyhb

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I am getting nervous here. I don't live there anymore, but my mother and my little brother, along with several friends, live just north of Little Rock AR and I am going there in 2 weeks for a visit.

 

Please tell me Little Rock (well, specifically Cabot...which was flattened in 1976 and surrounded EXACTLY 3 years ago) is not really in the biggest threat zone....

 

Little Rock is probably going to be under a significant threat on Sunday, and it could be nocturnal.

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bdgwx

bdgwx

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All other parameters aside models have been consistent in the strength of this system.  18 UTC GFS has it down to 980 mb in nw Nebraska sandhills region Sunday afternoon.

 

Ouch...looks like a -25mb drop from the first open isobar to the east at 18Z on Sunday.

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NCsandhills

NCsandhills

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Little Rock is probably going to be under a significant threat on Sunday, and it could be nocturnal.

Wonderful. I am sending out a general warning message on my FB to all my FB friends. Today happens to be the 3 year anniversary of the Little Rock Air Force Base tornado (which affected me and my family hugely), Beebe AR and Vilonia AR tornadoes. So I am going to use that point to try and make all my friends aware of Sunday's possibilities. 

 

When you say nocturnal, do you mean Saturday night going into Sunday or Sunday night going into Monday? Thank you for the information...

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andyhb

andyhb

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Wonderful. I am sending out a general warning message on my FB to all my FB friends. Today happens to be the 3 year anniversary of the Little Rock Air Force Base tornado (which affected me and my family hugely), Beebe AR and Vilonia AR tornadoes. So I am going to use that point to try and make all my friends aware of Sunday's possibilities. 

 

When you say nocturnal, do you mean Saturday night going into Sunday or Sunday night going into Monday? Thank you for the information...

 

Sunday night into Monday.

 

Tell them to go to LZK's page (Little Rock WFO) and brush up on the details.

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

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Wonderful. I am sending out a general warning message on my FB to all my FB friends. Today happens to be the 3 year anniversary of the Little Rock Air Force Base tornado (which affected me and my family hugely), Beebe AR and Vilonia AR tornadoes. So I am going to use that point to try and make all my friends aware of Sunday's possibilities. 

 

When you say nocturnal, do you mean Saturday night going into Sunday or Sunday night going into Monday? Thank you for the information...

It would be Sunday night into Monday.

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Stebo

Stebo

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The environment across the Arklatex is pretty mind-blowing late Sunday afternoon and evening on the new NAM... and of course it quickly tapers off right as you get N of the Ozarks/Ouichitas and into semi-decent terrain in E KS and W MO. Ughhhhhhhhh

 

Maybe it might be an instance where you say terrain be damned? Just a thought seeing how prolific the environment could be there.

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kevinbente

kevinbente

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00z NAM is pretty scary. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC eventually upgrades to a high risk, given the expected wind profiles and other parameters in the current Moderate Risk area for Sunday, and perhaps a bit east and northeast into the Little Rock area. 

 

Thoughts on this occurring?

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CUmet

CUmet

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I've noticed that the GFS has trended upward with the CAPE over much of AR over the past few runs.  There seems to be an initial round of convection located in SE KS/NE OK/W AR that shifts eastward throughout the day, followed by clearing in its wake that will allow the CAPE to recover in time for the dryline convection to move east and take advantage.  This seems to be supported by the NAM and 4km NAM as well.  

If the warm sector remains mostly free of convection, as is being increasingly suggested by the modeling trends, we will likely have a full-blown major tornado outbreak on our hands Sunday, with the highest risk areas starting in E OK/NE TX extending eastward across N LA, much of AR, and into southern MO.  There will likely be a significant tornado threat with a string of pearls extending up into SE NE, E KS and W MO as well.

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

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I've noticed that the GFS has trended upward with the CAPE over much of AR over the past few runs.  There seems to be an initial round of convection located in SE KS/NE OK/W AR that shifts eastward throughout the day, followed by clearing in its wake that will allow the CAPE to recover in time for the dryline convection to move east and take advantage.  This seems to be supported by the NAM and 4km NAM as well.  

If the warm sector remains mostly free of convection, as is being increasingly suggested by the modeling trends, we will likely have a full-blown major tornado outbreak on our hands Sunday, with the highest risk areas starting in E OK/NE TX extending eastward across N LA, much of AR, and into southern MO.  There will likely be a significant tornado threat with a string of pearls extending up into SE NE, E KS and W MO as well.

Thats a good observation, thank you for sharing.  I've also noticed the last 3 GFS runs have slowed the progression of the dryline on Sunday.  I've yet to see the 0Z GFS.  That could bring more areas into play depending on the nature and duration of morning convection Sunday.

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tornadotony

tornadotony

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I've noticed that the GFS has trended upward with the CAPE over much of AR over the past few runs.  There seems to be an initial round of convection located in SE KS/NE OK/W AR that shifts eastward throughout the day, followed by clearing in its wake that will allow the CAPE to recover in time for the dryline convection to move east and take advantage.  This seems to be supported by the NAM and 4km NAM as well.  

If the warm sector remains mostly free of convection, as is being increasingly suggested by the modeling trends, we will likely have a full-blown major tornado outbreak on our hands Sunday, with the highest risk areas starting in E OK/NE TX extending eastward across N LA, much of AR, and into southern MO.  There will likely be a significant tornado threat with a string of pearls extending up into SE NE, E KS and W MO as well.

Yeah, I'll be honest, I would not be totally shocked if a day 2 high risk came out for the Arklatex.  I don't know that I'd agree with it...I don't think we're that good yet and the mesoscale evolution, such as Saturday's convection, still leaves a tiny question mark.  But otherwise, this is an incredibly potent setup.

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soonertrey

soonertrey

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Maybe it might be an instance where you say terrain be damned? Just a thought seeing how prolific the environment could be there.

I keep saying that to myself, but I know better. I have only chased once in that area and it was a nightmare. I swore never again, and I've stuck to that so far. I just can't justify it with the **** road network, **** terrain and less than ideal storm motions for chasers. This just isn't worth it to me and a lot of other chasers. There will definitely be some out there chasing this though. I hope they stay safe.

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ZackH

ZackH

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Posted

Not for PTT.

Probably should listen to Ryan..

What does this have to do with the post you quoted? I haven't said anything about Pratt in this conversation. Was a simple observation that morning soundings showed models had under forecast moisture and depth in southern TX. So you just decided to say something random because you sometimes text or tweet with my partner? Pratt was never our initiation target. Its simply a jump off point to analyze all new data early in the day. Western OK has been our target since yesterday but thanks for the concern and the really odd inappropriate comment.

Sent from my LG-LS980

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Msalgado

Msalgado

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Every model run of the GFS over the past 24 hours has made slight improvements to the environment in SW Oklahoma from what I can see.  Its not a big leap but I think with it being so close to being decent any improvement is good for chasers in that area.  Maybe its wishful thinking but I think from 5-8pm down there will see some good cells.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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Posted

What does this have to do with the post you quoted? I haven't said anything about Pratt in this conversation. Was a simple observation that morning soundings showed models had under forecast moisture and depth in southern TX. So you just decided to say something random because you sometimes text or tweet with my partner? Pratt was never our initiation target. Its simply a jump off point to analyze all new data early in the day. Western OK has been our target since yesterday but thanks for the concern and the really odd inappropriate comment.

Sent from my LG-LS980

Lol it was a joke.

Relax

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