Quincy Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 12z RGEM fires a modest line of convection around and shortly after 00z Sunday, then blows up a more significant convective line around 09z... (north TX into OK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 What is this map showing? Its an experimental parameter that projects supercell types (ie. LP, HP, and Classic) Red is HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Its an experimental parameter that projects supercell types (ie. LP, HP, and Classic) Red is HP Huh. Interesting. I wonder how it is calculated. Anvil-level winds with some other parameters? I would think "experimental" is the key word here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 What is this map showing? There's just so much information in that map, it's overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Huh. Interesting. I wonder how it is calculated. Anvil-level winds with some other parameters? I would think "experimental" is the key word here... I'd assume it'd take in anvil level, storm motion, updraft helicity, pwats...etc It's actually been fairly decent so far this year. Just thought it would be interesting to post *cough* Okpowdah *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Last post from me on the latest model data and such (don't want to clog thread), but the 12z NAM-based CIPS really target central OK tomorrow night. That lines up with the GFS thinking and also the 4km NAM reflectivity product, which completely blows up convection bigtime between about 00z and 03z Sunday. Here are the top severe tornado probs for ***Saturday night: The window for Sunday/Sunday night still looks very impressive, but the analog placement of reports appears too far west. (Assuming we don't initiate in the morning hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I'd assume it'd take in anvil level, storm motion, updraft helicity, pwats...etc It's actually been fairly decent so far this year. Just thought it would be interesting to post *cough* Okpowdah *cough* thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Is it just me or do the analogs seem to be pointing to more significant Saturday and Sunday than what is currently indicated by the models with a larger than normal disparity? Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I don't know if it has been discussed with the mods but considering this is a multi day and multi regional event. I think it might be a good idea to take this thread and put it in the main forum, we can use this thread as a collection for the entire event so we don't have to go to multiple subforums especially for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. It was brought up. We may go main forum but we're still 2-3 days away from the higher end/multi subforum threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 1st for updraft helicity Saturday night, 2nd for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 This appears to be just the 10th day 3 moderate risk issued, using the current 45% threshold. Previous day 3 moderates by issued for dates: 4/24/2007 6/6/2007, 6/7/2007 4/10/2008 5/13/2009 4/10/2011 4/27/2011 4/14/2012 4/17/2013 Based off of info from http://www.pmarshwx.com/blog/2012/04/12/spc-day-3-moderates-in-context-what-do-they-become/ Also the one for 10/18/2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 1st for updraft helicity Saturday night, 2nd for Sunday. Don't recall seeing the 75 contour before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 New D2 is out.. SCENARIO WILL SUPPORTRELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL /SOME VERY LARGE/AS THE PRIMARY SCENARIO. AS THESE STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD...LOCALLYDAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO RISK MAY OCCURTOWARD/JUST AFTER SUNSET PENDING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL MODE ASMOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SRH EACH NOCTURNALLY INCREASE. ALTHOUGH...WARMSECTOR INHIBITION SHOULD NONETHELESS TEND TO INCREASE BY LATEEVENING IN MOST AREAS WITH UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO SURFACE-BASEDSTORM/TORNADO LIKELIHOOD DEEPER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Don't recall seeing the 75 contour before It's a bit easier to get that now since they relaxed the threshold on some of the ingredients, but still mighty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 It was brought up. We may go main forum but we're still 2-3 days away from the higher end/multi subforum threat. It makes more sense to move it now and have it be a collect all from start to finish, no point in moving it mid event. We did the same for the 4/27/11 event I believe and it worked fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 (Big fat FWIW...) 4km NAM is already getting pretty violent on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 It makes more sense to move it now and have it be a collect all from start to finish, no point in moving it mid event. We did the same for the 4/27/11 event I believe and it worked fine. It would be moved before mid-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 It makes more sense to move it now and have it be a collect all from start to finish, no point in moving it mid event. We did the same for the 4/27/11 event I believe and it worked fine.It's never a "collect all"...Many times there still ends up being dedicated threads within the sub-forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 It's never a "collect all"...Many times there still ends up being dedicated threads within the sub-forums. Collect majority then... You obviously know what I am talking about that most of the severe posters would be posting in the one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Also the one for 10/18/2007 6/10(?)/2005 is missing from there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 6/10(?)/2005 is missing from there as well. His post specified 45% moderate risks so I was just going with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 Last post from me on the latest model data and such (don't want to clog thread), but the 12z NAM-based CIPS really target central OK tomorrow night. That lines up with the GFS thinking and also the 4km NAM reflectivity product, which completely blows up convection bigtime between about 00z and 03z Sunday. Here are the top severe tornado probs for ***Saturday night: The window for Sunday/Sunday night still looks very impressive, but the analog placement of reports appears too far west. (Assuming we don't initiate in the morning hours) I noticed that too. Why is the analog showing reports that far west for Sunday? Are there signals that the DL may slow down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 This might sound crazy to y'all but I'm hoping the DL stalls just west of the DFW Metroplex, that way storms dump rain over us but hopefully don't mature until they get over less populated areas. We really need the rain and a wise person on another weather forum thinks the Northwest flow will return, which, would keep is dry for the next 8-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 25, 2014 Share Posted April 25, 2014 I noticed that too. Why is the analog showing reports that far west for Sunday? Are there signals that the DL may slow down? I have noticed that as well and going through some similar scenarios dipicting where the low will be and trough position the dryline never made it past I-35 in most cases still from north Texas up through about OKC. I still think it won't make it past I-35, but certainly no weather expert and I know very little about drylines being from up north. I have read studies saying models have difficulty with dryline positions, so there is a sliver of hope to me they are incorrect. I would think that if we get some storms or shower activity in the morning, that the more moisture present would make it harder to push the dryline through as quick as being shown or if models underestimate dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 All other parameters aside models have been consistent in the strength of this system. 18 UTC GFS has it down to 980 mb in nw Nebraska sandhills region Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Is this sunday time frame looking very tornadic for swmo area especially for myself and JoMo ????what are the thoughts here .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Is this sunday time frame looking very tornadic for swmo area especially for myself and JoMo ????what are the thoughts here .. I've been looking into that. I hope it's just a wind/hail threat. I think the best tornado probs will be across SE OK and W AR because the winds will be becoming more SW oriented with time up this way. Still probably can't rule out tornadoes up this way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2014 Share Posted April 26, 2014 As the above current time sensitive clown maps indicate and JoMo has posted the greatest threat at present is to your south with this one model run but certainly bears watching as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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