aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Very good consensus on the 18Z Ensembles. 8/12 showing a similar solution for 132 hrs out is amazing. This could be a long-duration event if it evolves as advertized by the GFS. (assuming we don't end up dryslotting) Good game...let's play it...the assume game Assuming we don't dryslot Assuming we don't mix Ok everyone add your favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good game...let's play it...the assume game Assuming we don't dryslot Assuming we don't mix Ok everyone add your favorites Assuming we aren't fringed. Assuming we stay all snow Assuming the warm ocean next to us Assuming our astronimically parched soil Assuming our south of 40N latitude Assuming the snow falls at night Assuming the snow doesn't graupel on us Assuming the mountains dont suck up the moisture Assuming no one is travelling over Christmas Assuming the tropical forcing is minimal Assuming its a strong Nina Assuming it turns out to be a Nino-like strong Nina Assuming it turns out to be a Nino-like strong Nina with blocking Assuming the moon alignment with Jupiter doesn't pull the storm to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Assuming we aren't fringed. Excellent...other people add your favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sun angle WILL be a problem and I am not impressed with the moisture I am seeing on the maps I am looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Excellent...other people add your favorites if the snow falls in the early evening, the ground will likely be warm from the sunlight, hence little or no accumulations can be expected at night of course, snowfall during daylight hours will be cut back dramatically as I believe the Moon is out this week, so you got that on top of the sun angle eating away its almost not worth having the snow fall...how many days till' spring? but what's it matter, may as well be spring out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Also, snowcover in Canada seems less than ideal. I suspect that will affect 850 temps. Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sun angle WILL be a problem and I am not impressed with the moisture I am seeing on the maps I am looking at. and the lunar eclipse monday night will probably bring this thing north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 No cold high to the north pac jet firehouse of death will push it off shore NW trend will screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sun angle WILL be a problem and I am not impressed with the moisture I am seeing on the maps I am looking at. You're forgetting to factor in Santa's shadow. Not to mention the shadow cast by certain Met's egos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Its PTBs turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No cold high to the north pac jet firehouse of death will push it off shore NW trend will screw us Good chance it will be too cold to snow. We need this thing to cut way north but it can't due to the 200 mb winds and 500 mb vort positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 According to my records, DCA has never seen more than 3 inches of snow on Christmas Day during a Nina. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The pinwheel of death will shear it out ...and this is the last chance for snow before the winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I heard the COAMPS was a Lakes cutter at 18Z and the NOGAPS showed a storm around Chicago. NOT GOOD. Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 That low thingy by Alaska screwed up the whole setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 man i hope it does not snow i will have to cover the palm trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 CtBlizz said it's coming North....la la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LWX is up to a 50% of snow on Saturday. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If we have a wind factor we may have to deal with compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hi all - The flow beneath extensive high latitude -AO/-NAO attributed blocking is complex, with multi-nodal SPV connecting a general band of negative geopotential anomalies along 45-55 W in the means. At any given time a more intermediate and/or southern stream S/W will tend to cut underneath, threatening a phase and deeper cyclogenesis, but this is inherently a stochastic affair in the models as this recent event certainly pointed out. Firstly regarding the nearer term: there is still some potential remaining that the [now] early to midweek system will affect some portion of southern and eastern New England. Here are the issues with this event: The low-level baroclinic axis is suppressed unusually far east and south along and off the eastern seaboard. This combined with [likely] convective feedback processing in the models is causing surface depictions across multiple guidance types to be displaced east and or south of the better theoretical position beneath superior deep layer forcing. The main jet axis leaves the NJ Coast with its left and right entrance regions nosing out over waters south of Long Island Resized to 98% (was 904 x 508) - Click image to enlarge as the above annotated images show. There could be an error that we have not collectively been discussing. Moreover, looking out to 72 hours and beyond, we see that the NAM model is attempting to perhaps correct for this [error] by anchoring a deep layer, deep vortex concatenated under the U/A closed low, while the original low it was developing amid the convective mass is attempting to escape and shear eastward - a condition that looks more +NAO than -NAO, so is not very well teleconnection supported. Last night's runs unilaterally showed forsaking those governing dynamics for convection out over the outer Gulf Stream and west Atlantic Basin, keying in on any one of the resulting convective induced vorticity maxima and using it to mechanize a deep gale quite far displaced east from the better divergence aloft. I don't believe that is right. I would be more willing to go with convection streaking out and perhaps robbing cyclogenesis farther NW over actually having a main show low event deep southeast where the thermal gradient is weak and there is an absence of frontal slopes to force synoptic scale lift; jet interaction/cross-sectional analysis would not support. That said, if there are some mechanical processes not readily observable in these prognostics they may turn up with some other analysis. I see some chance that a stronger low may anchor in farther W, and that there would be some retrograde motion into eastern areas of New England with some snow. For now, will leave it at that. On to next weekend: This event has more teleconnector-related intuitive support for actually having a chance to happen than the nearer term. Both the CDC and CPC are showing a relaxation of the NAO, supplying a less suppressed/negative wave interference on the means. Resized to 88% (was 1006 x 369) - Click image to enlarge The PNA is what is more intriguing however, showing a lot of members clustered enough for a concerted rise from a long standing -negative phase state; hence enters the modal shift of the PNA. However long lasting aside, one that recovers almost 2 full SD, it would be hard to perceive that can occur without at last altering the characteristic of the flow amid the Pacific relay into North America. As certain scientist have shown statistically, particularly during modal periods of the PNA during cold season, large synoptic scale precipitation events are favored. The reasons for that on a more physical level are pretty obvious, in that when the modal intervals are taking place, this means large scale mixing of differentiable air masses taking place, hence instability at large scales leads to storm development. Resized to 88% (was 1006 x 369) - Click image to enlarge 3.5 days from now the CPC intensely clustered members have a PNA that starts concertedly rising out through D10. This centers wonderfully on next weekend's shortening of the L/W lengths. Lastly, the MJO was decaying out of Phase 5 and through 6 over the last week. Incidently this was not a statistical fit for EC storms. But, it is appearing to re-strengthen entering Phase 7, and that should time for late Phase 7 and early 8 by next weekend, which statistically IS a good fit. I don't have a lot of experience using the MJO for single planetary events - and I don't think it should. Nonetheless, the numbers still fall out that way and Phase 8 and 1 tend to own the lion's share of coincident EC events. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ahhh no you didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 ahhh no you didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm concerned about the angle of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm concerned about the angle of the cold. Or if it doesn't manufacture it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Assuming the models don't shift the storm NW into the OV, because it will never go back. Game over. Assuming we don't have a warm boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Assuming we don't have eight hours of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 All we need is just a slight bump to the north to get back in the purples. north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Assuming this 18z run of the gfs 5 days out is correct we are all doomed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Assuming we don't get only light snow for 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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