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Vendor forecast thread


famartin
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JB on the twin arctic avengers

 

"Twin Arctic Avengers that can have blizzard conditions with them ( though snows won't be as great as the Jan 26-28 blizzard) will impact the east the next 7 days. The first will have its epicenter where the blizzard did, but also have some snow further back west and push the south part of the eastern snowbank south a bit, into the northern mid atlantic The Second is likely to have its epicenter on the south end of the snowpack.. which means it may leave snow on the ground all the way to the Va-NC border As these travel southeast through the northern plains and midwest, it will become clearer that the scramble period of mild is gone and the backing of the cold is underway. Next week, will lead to enhanced snow further south and west, well into the plains and at this time, as far south as the I-40 corridor. The core of cold will expand back west.

The winter so far has had its share of triumph and tragedy. I feel very confident of 2 things. 1) the snow forecast which is first to last flake.. will by and large workout, and by that I mean, if we have above normal it will be above normal.. I can't say it in every single backyard spot, but I love what I see as far as the pattern goes 2) We had an area of -5 for this winter over the still warmer than normal midwest ( Dec-Jan) For the specific winter season, Dec-Feb, I think we will get that, but over New England, again a maddening WESTWARD bias of my cold ( Last year because it was over the plains more, and everyone was cold it did not matter. but the core was supposed to be east. Its maddening because my bias for much of my career was too cold too far east! But another thing to point out, and this is probably in the excuse category. If I took the blend of 90 days for Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar and put together a 5 month forecast out of that for Nov-Mar, given what has happened and what I think is going to happen, it would have been a great 5 month forecast. I am confident the plains and even the southeast down to I 20, will share in the winter woe, though its obvious the worse is in the northeast."

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  • 2 weeks later...

Paraphrasing from JB's article today - sees models "catching up" with future runs to come to his ideas below

He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air?

In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk.

So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more

The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track.

And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled

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JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

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JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

He's actually indicating an area of 6-10" shows up across eastern PA into the PHL NW burbs due to the 'reverse eddy' off the Jersey coast.   Not buying the 60 degree temps showing up on some models for Wednesday either.

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DT going BIG for tomorrows event. 4-8" in the higher terrain regions, 3-6" for Monmouth(chuckle) 2-5" surrounding burbs(some) Big ice purple for Philly lol

 

Usually he's been an accurate predictor for my region, but this winter WAY off. Not one of his snow calls has verified. But he has done well for areas south of PA

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DT going BIG for tomorrows event. 4-8" in the higher terrain regions, 3-6" for Monmouth(chuckle) 2-5" surrounding burbs(some) Big ice purple for Philly lol

 

Usually he's been an accurate predictor for my region, but this winter WAY off. Not one of his snow calls has verified. But he has done well for areas south of PA

Dt also made fun of the weather channel for forecasting a storm this weekend. He called for no precipitation of any kind with brilliant sunshine- just yesterday morning
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Regarding DT's map...yeah, the northern cutoff of precip is going to be very sharp.  Wouldn't be surprised if the 6" snow line ends up south of us (in other words, south of Spring Mount and Collegeville), based on the 12z suite pushing everything further south vs. previous runs.

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Regarding DT's map...yeah, the northern cutoff of precip is going to be very sharp.  Wouldn't be surprised if the 6" snow line ends up south of us (in other words, south of Spring Mount and Collegeville), based on the 12z suite pushing everything further south vs. previous runs.

I have been saying 4-8 since Monday morning, and staying with that barring another shift to the south

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I was surprised this morning to see that Verizon doesn't carry TWC as of today. I discovered this because I liked weatherscan (owned by TWC) as a local area resource for current conditions (Allentown, Trenton, PHL, Wilmington, AC and Dover), and it is there no more. Apparently TWC has been replaced by Accuweather (on Verizon, in this area at least).

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I was surprised this morning to see that Verizon doesn't carry TWC as of today. I discovered this because I liked weatherscan (owned by TWC) as a local area resource for current conditions (Allentown, Trenton, PHL, Wilmington, AC and Dover), and it is there no more. Apparently TWC has been replaced by Accuweather (on Verizon, in this area at least).

I believe TWC is owned by NBC Comcast and, if correct, ergo that decision!

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  • 2 weeks later...

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