ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 JB on the twin arctic avengers "Twin Arctic Avengers that can have blizzard conditions with them ( though snows won't be as great as the Jan 26-28 blizzard) will impact the east the next 7 days. The first will have its epicenter where the blizzard did, but also have some snow further back west and push the south part of the eastern snowbank south a bit, into the northern mid atlantic The Second is likely to have its epicenter on the south end of the snowpack.. which means it may leave snow on the ground all the way to the Va-NC border As these travel southeast through the northern plains and midwest, it will become clearer that the scramble period of mild is gone and the backing of the cold is underway. Next week, will lead to enhanced snow further south and west, well into the plains and at this time, as far south as the I-40 corridor. The core of cold will expand back west. The winter so far has had its share of triumph and tragedy. I feel very confident of 2 things. 1) the snow forecast which is first to last flake.. will by and large workout, and by that I mean, if we have above normal it will be above normal.. I can't say it in every single backyard spot, but I love what I see as far as the pattern goes 2) We had an area of -5 for this winter over the still warmer than normal midwest ( Dec-Jan) For the specific winter season, Dec-Feb, I think we will get that, but over New England, again a maddening WESTWARD bias of my cold ( Last year because it was over the plains more, and everyone was cold it did not matter. but the core was supposed to be east. Its maddening because my bias for much of my career was too cold too far east! But another thing to point out, and this is probably in the excuse category. If I took the blend of 90 days for Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar and put together a 5 month forecast out of that for Nov-Mar, given what has happened and what I think is going to happen, it would have been a great 5 month forecast. I am confident the plains and even the southeast down to I 20, will share in the winter woe, though its obvious the worse is in the northeast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 http://epawaweather.com/weather-weeklies/ Nice video about the February 17th-18th system. The video includes detailed info about the QBO and MJO for those that may not fully understand it's effect on winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Paraphrasing from JB's article today - sees models "catching up" with future runs to come to his ideas below He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air? In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk. So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track. And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation" He's actually indicating an area of 6-10" shows up across eastern PA into the PHL NW burbs due to the 'reverse eddy' off the Jersey coast. Not buying the 60 degree temps showing up on some models for Wednesday either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It is Trending his way as we speak.... Been this way all winter it seems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I can believe that the Sunday night into Monday AM event will end up more wintry than wet in our region, but I don't know about Wednesday...that -PNA situation screams very warm cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 DT going BIG for tomorrows event. 4-8" in the higher terrain regions, 3-6" for Monmouth(chuckle) 2-5" surrounding burbs(some) Big ice purple for Philly lol Usually he's been an accurate predictor for my region, but this winter WAY off. Not one of his snow calls has verified. But he has done well for areas south of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 DT going BIG for tomorrows event. 4-8" in the higher terrain regions, 3-6" for Monmouth(chuckle) 2-5" surrounding burbs(some) Big ice purple for Philly lol Usually he's been an accurate predictor for my region, but this winter WAY off. Not one of his snow calls has verified. But he has done well for areas south of PA Dt also made fun of the weather channel for forecasting a storm this weekend. He called for no precipitation of any kind with brilliant sunshine- just yesterday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT's first call, way too high for areas up north in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Steve D 6-12 Philly metro, SNJ, Delaware 4-8 NW Philly burbs, CNJ, LI, NYC 2-4 LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Regarding DT's map...yeah, the northern cutoff of precip is going to be very sharp. Wouldn't be surprised if the 6" snow line ends up south of us (in other words, south of Spring Mount and Collegeville), based on the 12z suite pushing everything further south vs. previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Regarding DT's map...yeah, the northern cutoff of precip is going to be very sharp. Wouldn't be surprised if the 6" snow line ends up south of us (in other words, south of Spring Mount and Collegeville), based on the 12z suite pushing everything further south vs. previous runs. I have been saying 4-8 since Monday morning, and staying with that barring another shift to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NBC 10 6 or more- I95 corridor (everyone 30 miles NW and SE of it) 3-6 up until you get near the Poconos 3-6 SNJ towards Atlantic City 2-4 Central and Southern Delaware, extreme SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6 ABC 4-8 everyone in the viewing area except north of Allentown, where they have 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LC says philly jackpot. Ignore nam too far south with impulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So how much is he calling for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LC says philly jackpot. Ignore nam too far south with impulses. From what I read "Chester PA to Jackson NJ" is his jackpot zone. He didn't give any totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 From what I read "Chester PA to Jackson NJ" is his jackpot zone. He didn't give any totals. Ok..thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Props to DT 6-10" call worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 DT now patting himself on the back for calling for warmer temperatures in mid March back in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Props to DT 6-10" call worked out The "adjusted" last call in itself is a joke but to top it off he lowered snow amounts in DE, S Jersey despite the fact he ripped "TV" Mets for lowering snow totals in DE & S. Jersey less than 6hrs. earlier. This winter season hasn't been one of DT's finer moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Props to DT 6-10" call worked out His call may have worked out in your area, but up here it was a total fail. He had us on the 3" line and we got a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 DT now patting himself on the back for calling for warmer temperatures in mid March back in February. That is up in the air at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45847-march-threatssnow-storms-pt-ii/page-35 There is some very good discussion in the MA forum March winter/snow threats pt2. See Bob Chill's posts, good reading and interesting to see if it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I was surprised this morning to see that Verizon doesn't carry TWC as of today. I discovered this because I liked weatherscan (owned by TWC) as a local area resource for current conditions (Allentown, Trenton, PHL, Wilmington, AC and Dover), and it is there no more. Apparently TWC has been replaced by Accuweather (on Verizon, in this area at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I was surprised this morning to see that Verizon doesn't carry TWC as of today. I discovered this because I liked weatherscan (owned by TWC) as a local area resource for current conditions (Allentown, Trenton, PHL, Wilmington, AC and Dover), and it is there no more. Apparently TWC has been replaced by Accuweather (on Verizon, in this area at least). I believe TWC is owned by NBC Comcast and, if correct, ergo that decision! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I believe TWC is owned by NBC Comcast and, if correct, ergo that decision! This is true. Yet with all the cable channels there are, somehow more winds up feeling like less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Finally made it into the bullseye zone in a DT map, took until March 18th of spring however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 According to dt's map I'm on the border of his 2" line and 2" line. Lol. Btw redsky dt's bullseye this winter has been more like a kiss of death this year. He's had a brutal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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